Moscow. February 12. Ruble moderately lower against the dollar and the euro on the “Moscow Exchange” on Thursday in the afternoon after the morning fluctuations on the news from Minsk, departing at the persistence of uncertainty after the conclusion of agreements.
The US dollar was worth 65.65 rubles ./$ 1 at 15:00 Moscow time on ETS, adding 40 cents to the level of the previous close. The euro exchange rate at this time amounted to 74.45 rubles. / EUR1, rising 50 cents. The cost of the currency basket ($ 0.55 and EUR0,45) rose 45 cents to 69.61 rubles.
At the end of the session the index ETC (part of the session on dollar settlements “tomorrow” in the period from 10: MSC 00 to 11:30 GMT) CBR second consecutive time increased the official rate of dollar and euro. Dollar exchange rate on Friday was increased by 4.09 kopecks to 66.0994 rubles ./$ 1 euro – by 9.25 kopecks to 74.8311 rubles. / EUR1.
The dollar and the euro repeatedly changed on Thursday direction, oscillating on geopolitical news. Currency slightly decreased by “Moscow Exchange” at the opening of trading on the positive expectations of the outcome of negotiations in Minsk, the dollar fell to a mark of 65 rubles for the first time since February 4. Soon after the discovery of both currencies rallied 1-1.5 rubles due to the fact that the outcome of the negotiations again became unclear.
Around noon the situation again improved markedly for the ruble, when it became known that the participants in the tripartite contact group to resolve the situation in Ukraine after the talks in Minsk signed a “full response to the Minsk Agreement,” including a comprehensive ceasefire and the withdrawal of both sides of all heavy weapons. The presidents of Russia, Ukraine, France and German Chancellor signed a declaration in support of this complex.
Later, the ruble again moved to a reduction in terms of further assessment of the peace process as a complex. For instance, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she hoped for a peaceful solution of the conflict Ukrainian, but realizes that this has yet to overcome serious obstacles.
Market participants believe that the set of events related to the settlement, in rubles may receive the base for growth. “While market reaction to optimistic news Minsk very restrained. However, we believe that the fuse for a decent national currency strengthening in the ruble is now substantial,” – said a senior analyst at IG “Nord-Capital” Sergei Alene.
“It is possible , bidders need to rethink what happened, wait for new details, to obtain confirmation of what has been said on the matter. Objectively, done that night was a colossal amount. It should not be taken for granted. We expect more intelligible to strengthen the national currency in the near future, “- he added.
According to the Director of Research company “Alfa-Forex” Andrew Dirgin if the parties will comply with all of today’s agreement, it will allow to hope for the possibility of folding at least part of the measures of restrictions on Russia. “The Russian currency has responded positively to the event, but nevertheless, further strengthening in question – oil prices have slowed the pace of recovery, and amid lingering sanctions foundation for the proper growth of the ruble is not observed,” – he said.
Oil rose slightly on Thursday after a sharp drop in prices yesterday. March futures for Brent crude on London’s ICE Futures Exchange by 14:00 MSK rose by $ 1.1 (2.01%) – up to $ 55.76 per barrel. Bidding for the March contract will end on February 12, the more active the April rose by 1% to $ 56.91 per barrel.
“It is possible that the pair USD / RUB will show sharp fluctuations in the coming days” – said a senior analyst at Forexclub Alain Afanasyev. In her estimation, the hope is that, as the Russian Federation took an active part in the peaceful settlement of the conflict, there is no need to maintain restrictive measures against the Russian economy can serve as a major impetus for the growth in demand for the ruble in the near future.
Analyst Company Exness Sergey Kochergin indicates that the results of the talks in Minsk, in the short term may serve as a depreciation of the dollar in the area of 60 rubles ./$ 1.
Betting on the market of short-term interbank ruble loans retained levels on Thursday: the rate MosPrime Rate by loans “overnight”, as the previous day, was 15.85% per annum. MosPrime Rate rate on loans for a period of 6 months decreased by 3 basis points to 17.7% per annum.
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