In the new millennium, Russia is the second time faced with economic difficulties, which can be fully considered by the crisis. The current is very different from that which the country had to endure seven years ago. “Times” to understand, what it is to be expected from the Russians coming year.
Inevitable recession?
The government and experts believe that the economic contraction can not be avoided. According to the forecast of Economic Development, with an average annual oil price of $ 80 per barrel decline of 0.8% of GDP. But the problem is that the quotes are now at $ 50-60, and while the upward trend in the market do not have.
The official forecast for the case of “$ 60 per barrel on average for the year” does not exist, but available estimates the Finance Ministry, Ministry of Economic Development, the Central Bank and experts suggest that GDP will go to minus 3-5%. If oil prices are even lower for the year, the recession could be deeper.
Deputy Director of the Institute “Development Center” HSE Valery Mironov does not rule out that the GDP will fall in 2009 , ie by 7.8% and even more.
Looks like the crisis-2015 crisis-2008/2009?
The common features are. This is primarily fall in oil prices. However, then they fell from a peak of $ 147 a barrel in June 2008 to $ 45 in November (at this level quotes lasted three months), and in the fall of 2014 began with the June $ 115 and closer to the middle of January 2015 already reached $ 50. How long prices will remain at this level is still unknown. Both then and now occurs devaluation (in 2008-2009-m dollar jumped from 24 to 36 rubles., In 2014 – from 33 to 56 rubles.).
But, perhaps, on this the similarity ends.
At the heart of the past and the current recession are different reasons. Seven years ago, the financial crisis triggered by the collapse of the US mortgage, covered almost the whole world. Moreover, some European countries and even America entered into recession in 2007. Russia and most emerging markets are faced with these issues in the autumn of 2008, after the bankruptcy in September, the bank Lehmann Brothers. The main negative factor for the Russian steel industry with excess stocks, and for large corporations and banks – the closure of Western financial markets. Accordingly, the crisis Russia go along with the rest of the world economy.
Now the problem of others. This decline in investment activity in the country, as well as sanctions against Russia, which deter foreign investors and close access to the US financial markets, the EU and Japan. Russian response “food” sanctions are also making their negative contribution, causing a rise in prices and, consequently, falling real incomes, as well as the decline in consumer activity.
How long will the recession?
While officials and experts expect that the recession in the acute phase limited to the current year and the next year will begin a gradual recovery. This, in particular, President Vladimir Putin said.
However, if the external environment for energy will remain weak, the government does not take active measures to stimulate the economy or against Russia will be tightened sanctions The crisis may be delayed.
At the same time out of the recession will be slow, and the growth rate of 3% above the country will return no sooner than two to three years.
Does Russia have financial reserves to get through the recession?
In Reserve Fund and the National Welfare Fund (NWF) accumulated on December 1, 2014 4.4 trillion and 4 trillion rubles. respectively. In principle, this money is enough to survive the current year is relatively painless.
According to the latest assessment of Finance Minister Anton Siluanova, the federal budget is not enough for 2.6 trillion rubles. income, since the budget was imposed at the rate of $ 100 per barrel and GDP growth at 1,2%.
Some of this deficit will be covered due to the devaluation of the ruble and reduce costs by 10%, the rest are likely to take from the Reserve Fund. State companies, banks, as well as to finance large investment funds will be given of the NWF. For example, have decided to allocate 150 billion rubles. Novatek for the project “Yamal LNG”, 50 billion rubles. Railways – BAM and Trans-Siberian Railway, 39.95 billion rubles. – To purchase additional issue Gazprombank.
In the foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank on December 26, 2014 was $ 388.5 billion. This is enough to meet the needs of importers, as well as banks and companies to foreign debt payments.
Another thing is that it is not known how will the government do if the crisis will last more than a year or two, which will inevitably lead to the depletion of reserves.
What will happen to prices?
At the end of the last week of December 2014, inflation was, according to Rosstat, 11.4%. VEB chief economist Andrei Klepach said that in the first quarter of this year, prices could reach 15%. Agree with this and other experts. By the end of the year inflation will slow to about 10%. The main drivers of price growth – a devaluation of the ruble and food embargo.
Because of this, more expensive imports and domestically produced goods with imported “components.” Russian producers have traditionally tighten the value of their products to foreign peers.
Most Expensive food, as well as all imports – electronics, cars, alcohol and so on. There are also other factors of inflation – increase in tariffs for gas, electricity, heat, water, housing and communal services , rail transport, public transport and so on.
Will fall further ruble?
The government and the Central Bank have taken steps to reduce the activity of speculators, especially making ruble liquidity is very expensive. The most important measure here was to raise key interest rate to 17%. In addition, the authorities had ordered informally exporters mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. This helped in a few days to return the dollar from 70-75 to 56-58 rubles.
According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanova, the government is waiting for the course 51-55 rubles. per dollar when the price of oil at around $ 60 per barrel. However, if the oil quotes will go down, they dragged off of themselves and the ruble. In addition, if the Central Bank will not stand clear policies and speculators feel that the regulator gives the slack, the ruble may be subject to a new attack.
In general, in the absence of new shocks from today the level of the national currency in the current year should not go far.
Should I wait for the population of revenue growth?
According to the forecast Economic Development, the real disposable income in 2015 will go to the minus 2.8%. In fact, the reduction will be even greater, because inflation will be higher than anticipated Office (7.5% at year-end).
Head of the Committee of Civil Initiatives Alexei Kudrin recalled that the income decline for the first time Vladimir Putin’s stay in power, that is, since 2000.
While you should not expect anything good to state. This year it is planned to index wages only by 5.5%, and in October. There is a slight chance that the size of the indexation increase, but so far no decisions, and most importantly, a source of income under this no.
Employees of private companies hope for some substantial pay raises even more so not worth it.
Wait whether mass layoffs?
Almost a full stop the financial sector, industry and construction, as in 2008-2009, will not. But “Optimization of staff” will be everywhere. Most affected trading company specializing in the import. According to various estimates, unemployment could rise to 1-1.5 percentage points (to 6.5-7%), that is dismissed will be about 1 million people.
Does the government have a plan of anti-crisis measures?
While no official documents on this account no. A set of measures to be used in the Kremlin and the White House, is essentially identical to what was done in 2008-2009. That is, will inject liquidity into the banking sector, big business and mega-projects (Trans-Siberian Railway, the World Cup – in 2018, the bridge to the Crimea, and others). Perhaps perepadet little and small businesses. In addition, the priorities of state are the defense industry, agriculture and import substitution projects in key sectors, such as fuel and energy sector.
These measures should help to stir up the domestic economy. Otherwise, it is doomed to long existence somewhere “near zero».
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