Traders appreciated the probability of default on government bonds Russia – RBC

Traders appreciated the probability of default on government bonds Russia – RBC

Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

reports agency Bloomberg, Russia was the fifth in the list of countries with a high probability of default, ahead of a number of countries with a speculative rating, including Lebanon, Egypt, Portugal.

Russian government bond yield is one of the highest among developing countries and the market is for dollar-denominated bonds maturing in September 2023 about 7%. The yield on government bonds of similar Lebanon is 5.9%, and this despite the fact that the credit rating of Lebanon from S & amp; P is on the six steps below Russia’s rating BBB -.

However, Russia’s sovereign credit rating may be downgraded Agency Fitch Ratings to junk level today, experts predict Societe Generale SA. December 23, 2014, the international rating agency Standard & amp; Poor’s sovereign credit rating sent Russia to review with “negative” outlook.

«S & amp; P with a probability of 50% will lower the rating in the next 90 days,” – said the agency. One reason for a possible downgrade has been called a sharp decline in the flexibility of monetary policy of the country.

«I see a very large chance that the rating will be reviewed. Over the past three months, the economic prospects of the Russian Federation has changed dramatically in the background dynamics of oil prices. This has led to a strong devaluation, inflation, and limited access to credit, “- said credit analyst at Bloomberg Union Bancaire Privee in Zurich Olga Budovnits.

On the eve of the American financier George Soros said that, thanks to a sharp drop in world prices for Oil imposed sanctions against Russia was hit on its economy even more than they could hope for Western leaders, resulting in the country could face default.

However, Russian analysts do not share the pessimism of Soros. “There is no default in the next two years will not be. In the second half of the year will be a sharp rise in oil quotes – probably around $ 95, and talk about the default will be forgotten, “- said, in particular, Deputy Director General for investment analysis of IR” Zurich Capital Management “Andrey Vernikov.