The reason for the revision of the rating was the decline in oil prices, the fall of the ruble and a sharp increase in the key rate, says RBC. Agency experts also take into account the negative impact of sanctions on the Russian economy.
According to the forecast Fitch, inflation in Russia by the end of 2015 could reach 8.5%, while economic growth will stop until 2017.
The Russian government decision Fitch considered far-fetched. Commenting on the downgrade, a government expert called it “politically engaged, non-partnership, economically totally unmotivated,” RIA “Novosti”.
Meanwhile, experts do not exclude that in the spring of the other two major rating agencies – Standard & amp; Poor’s and Moody’s – deprive Russia’s investment rating.
In Moody’s ratings on review Russia has not yet sent. And S & amp; P in late December has put them on review for possible reduction, explaining that a rapid decrease in the flexibility of Russian monetary policy and the impact of the weakening of the economy on its financial system. Downgrade from the current level of “BBB-” turn it into a “trash”.
The day before, Bloomberg reported that Russia was the fifth in the list of countries with a high probability of default, ahead of a number of speculative rating, including Lebanon, Egypt and Portugal.
The high probability of default Russia warned the other day and the American financier George Soros. In his article for the February issue of the magazine New York Review of Books, he notes that sanctions, coupled with falling oil prices have caused much more damage to the Russian economy than the one expected the US and Europe, and led to the financial crisis, comparable to the 1998 crisis year. “It will not be surprising if the crisis in the process will lead to a default in Russia,” – says Soros.
No comments:
Post a Comment