The International Monetary Fund expects the fall of the Russian economy in 2016 by 1%, not 0.6% as expected in October. On this, as the "Interfax" , said in an updated review of the World Economic Outlook Update, which is composed of experts Fund.
At the end of 2015 the IMF estimated the decline in Russia's GDP is 3.7%. In 2017 the Russian economy, according to the fund to grow by 1%.
In general, experts predict that the economy of the CIS countries in 2016 will be zero growth (estimate lowered by 0.5 p. p. as compared to October), in 2017 – will grow by 1.7 % (decreased by 0.3 p. p.). Without Russia's GDP of the CIS countries in 2016 and 2017, according to IMF experts, will grow at a rate of 2.3% and 3.2%, respectively (estimate lowered by 0.5. P. 0.8 and p. P .).
The Foundation believes that in 2016 Russia will adapt to the low oil prices and sanctions of the West. "Other countries Commonwealth of Independent States are experiencing the impact of the recession in Russia and geopolitical tensions. The growth in these countries will be small in 2016, but will accelerate in 2017″, – the authors of the review.
The forecasts of GDP growth for "emerging markets" for 2016 and 2017 and decreased by 0.2 p. p. – to 4.3% and 4.7%, respectively. At the same time the IMF left unchanged assessment of China's economic growth in 2016 at 6.3%, in 2017 – 6% of India's economy – by 7.5% annually. In another participant BRICS – Brazil – forecast reduced by 2.5 p. P. 2016 (Fund expects GDP decline by 3.5%) and 2.3 p. P. (Up to zero growth in 2017).
As analysts expect the IMF, the growth of the US economy over the next two years will be at 2.6%, which is 0.2 p. p. lower than forecast in October. Eurozone GDP growth forecast in 2016, in contrast, has increased by 0.1 p. P. – To 1.7%, for 2017 the forecast remains the same – 1.7%. The forecast of economic growth in Japan remained unchanged: in 2016 – 1% in 2017 – a decrease of 0.1 p. P. 0.3%.
The IMF also lowered somewhat, and the forecast for global GDP growth in 2016 and 2017 – by 0.2 p. p. year, to 3.4% and 3.6%, respectively. At the end of 2015 global economic growth, according to the Fund, was 3.1%, which corresponds to the October estimate.
For the growth indicators, States need to resolve a number of problems: for example, the deceleration of the Chinese economy, low commodity prices, tight monetary conditions of the United States.
At the same time, however, the IMF does not foresee a new crisis. "At the moment there are tensions related to refugees from conflicts in the Middle East and the crisis of oil, but our most likely scenario is not a crisis situation and weak growth", – he said at a press conference presenting the report, IMF chief economist Maurice Obstfeld.
The IMF points out that the bulk of the revision of forecasts, falls on Brazil, "where the recession caused by the political uncertainty in the conditions of the continuing effects of the investigation of the case (the oil company) Petrobras (" Petrobras "), proved to be deeper and more prolonged than previously expected. "
According to IMF experts, the economic contraction of the largest countries in Latin America in 2016 will amount to 3.5%, only slightly better than the fall of 3.8% for the 2015 year. By 2017, the Brazilian economy should stop the fall, but not to show growth – forecast this year is 0%. Severe crisis in Brazil drags down the forecast throughout the Latin American region, whose economy continues to be in recession.
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