To the majority of participants of the forum organizers stated theme – challenges Fourth Industrial Revolution – has not become a major topic of discussion. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) on the forum presented its 1409 survey of CEOs, two thirds of them admitted that their business has become more difficult to develop than three years ago. Only 27% of respondents believe that 2016 will be easier for the previous one. Businessmen especially concerned about geopolitical instability “in the Middle East and throughout the world,” quoted The Japan Times head of PwC Dennis Nelly .
In several interviews the secretary general of the International Chamber of Commerce, John Danilovich said a lot about the challenges of the global economy, the lowest in the last 25 years of economic growth and falling prices for oil and other raw materials. In a conversation with The Associated Press, he said that “China is stuck in the mind of every».
Russian agenda
Russia, whose leaders have twice made speeches at the opening of the Davos (in 2009 – Vladimir Putin, then prime minister, in 2011 – Dmitry Medvedev, who was then president), this time won only one panel discussion. She played the head of delegation Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Trutnev, head of VEB Vladimir Dmitriev, Chairman of the Munich Security Conference, Wolfgang Ischinger, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin and Chief Editor RBC Elizabeth Ossetia.
Trutnev spoke optimistically, stating that the Russian crisis brings not only threats, but also opportunities, listing at least three: a stimulus for reforms favoring investment cheap ruble and the “solidarity of the people.” On this Kudrin noted that the redundancy costs the government can respond in three ways: reducing their increasing debt or increasing the tax burden. “We are looking out” – Trutnev assured him.
Ischinger was interested not so much a crisis in the economy, as Russia’s relations with the West. These relationships were infertile for at least the past two years as a result of “failed policy of Russia against its Western neighbors,” just because of the contradictions in Moscow, Washington and the European capitals failed to stop the bloody war in Syria, he said. Such a situation for the first time since the Cold War threatens to “inadvertent escalation,” sure Ischinger, so if they do not it’s time to “press the reset button”, the parties must think about how to “return to the normal».
Representatives large Russian business delegation spoke of its specialized sessions on the same. For example, the lifting of the sanctions within the next two years, spoke in Davos, the head of VTB Andrey Kostin. Western politicians also sent signals that Moscow may be interpreted as positive: US Secretary of State John Kerry spoke about the possible lifting of sanctions in the coming months – but only if the Minsk Agreement of Donbass will be satisfied in full. But while Kiev and the separatists (for them, believe the West should Moscow) can not agree, and argue about the sequence: that must happen first, the transfer of Ukrainian law enforcement officers beyond their control section of the Ukrainian-Russian border, or held in the breakaway republics of local elections under Ukrainian law .
But in general, Russia has remained on the periphery of the forum. The fact that the West and Russia has no common economic agenda, said RBC on the eve online source in the Russian government. Loss of interest in Russia is associated with the loss of a sense of perspective at the post-Soviet market, the chairman of the Board of Directors of IC “Eurofinance” Yakov Mirkin, – all of them high-risk. According to him, the CIS countries “are strongly dependent on unfavorable external factors.” “In order to focus once again focused on Russia, we need a very active economic and financial policies that will stimulate growth as a response to external challenges”, – he added.
«Business elite interest of potential points of growth, and we have all the forecasts of economic situation for at least another couple of years does not improve. A political – does not change, at least for the better, “- explains the lack of interest in events in Russia and the CIS participants now head of the department of the Center for Strategic Assessments situational analysis of the RAS Sergei Utkin. “Russia is weak, not only for obvious economic reasons, but also because the Russian military intervention in Syria, in my opinion, can hardly be called a success story”, – commented on the forum Ischinger.
Kudrin he warned that the economic weakness of the country will be reflected not only in the defense capabilities and positions in foreign policy, but also provoke a growing “backlog process – after the devaluation raise the price of purchase of high-tech». «Russia, with all the existing economic difficulties, having recognized worldwide scientific school and a long tradition in the field of education, and as a result, the availability of advanced teams in the development of artificial intelligence systems has the potential to take a leading position in a number of sectors of the new economy “- said RBC Forum member Olga Uskov, head of a group of companies Cognitive Technologies.
Dangerous progress
Home claimed forum topic forced guests to look at the long-term risks. As acknowledged Danilovich, uncertainty about the future are not only shaky markets, but also the risk that the company is unable to be an adequate response to new technologies, such as robotics.
Presented UBS is online study shows that in the first Once all of the technological revolution should benefit the developed countries, which have touched in computer studies. Among the foremost in this sense calls UBS Singapore and Switzerland. The in this rating – 45 countries, Russia occupies 31st place between Poland and Thailand. Currently, up to 33% of GDP “e-economy” in one form or another gives the US, according to a well presented in Davos report Accenture «digital divide: a multiplier of growth”: it is made on the material of 11 developed countries, behind the United States are the United Kingdom and Australia .
Experts Davos estimated that 2025 technology development of unmanned vehicles could save 1 million lives, reduce exhaust emissions vehicles – save up to $ 867 billion , and the total profit from the progress will be $ 100 trillion.
There is a flip side: developing countries will cease to be engines of development, they were Over the past decades, as cheap labor will no longer be considered a competitive advantage, believe in UBS, – low and srednekvalifitsirovanny work will be under growing threat of substitution of machine guns.
Pope Francis, who was represented in Davos, Cardinal Peter Terkson, He warned that such innovative technologies like 3D-press or unmanned vehicles can be left without work, millions of people. In the report prepared for the Forum of Davos, experts have concluded that the development of new technologies in the next five years will reduce the 7.1 million jobs that will be offset by a 2 million jobs in new areas. “We must lead the technological development, not allowing it to dominate a” – says Francis.
In his opening speech to the Forum on the same said Vice President Joseph Biden and organizer of the Forum Klaus Schwab. Chasing technology, humanity runs the risk of “losing the soul», said Biden; h To save the middle class, he called on heads of states and companies to invest in affordable education in all its forms – from children’s education to vocational retraining.
In his video blog, The Financial Times also devoted one of the themes of the Fourth Industrial Revolution – to the stated topic Schwab journalists reacted with suspicion: “If you carefully consider all the analysis does not show that it [technology" Industry 4.0 "] have the same transformative effect. All this is seriously overblown. ” In today’s economy is dominated by the services sector, which is very difficult robotized, counts with Tarsch economic correspondent for FT Martin Wolf .
Russian the delegation also tried to participate in these discussions. At the business breakfast of the Savings Bank on Friday its chairman German Gref and Kudrin argued that technology blokcheyn [and spolzuemaya in production cryptocurrency technology blokcheyna involves the creation of a decentralized database architecture which excludes changes in the already recorded information] will change the entire industry – from agriculture and banks to Governance .
The interest in this technology was recognized in the Davos Head of the MasterCard innovation Gary Lions , at the same time, as reported by “Xinhua», The Central Bank China called for the creation of its own cryptocurrency . About cryptocurrency said and IMF chief Christine Lagarde .
On the basis of this technology can create unique content – by payment to a legal document. “Each person can enter into the database, write down all the necessary documents for the purchase of land, form the package for an hour, send it to the relevant authorities, and within an hour, if everything is confirmed, to get an answer. This, of course, the revolution “- says Kudrin.
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