The government has a new anti-crisis plan for 400 billion rubles. – RBC

Until recently, it seemed that “you can not do without a special plan to translate the government’s work in a routine standard view,” admitted Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday

Photo: REUTERS 2016

The new bailout plan

The cost of anti-crisis measures government for 2016 could exceed 400 billion rubles., RBC was told two sources in the government. They know about it from the discussions that have been this week at a meeting with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. The decision to prepare a turnaround plan was made at a meeting with Medvedev on Wednesday. On Thursday, Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets said that the plan is being prepared and “will be released next week».

At the end of 2015, the government believes that in 2016 we can do without the new anti-crisis plan (the “New the plan does not need to, we need to return to the routine work of the main activities of the government “, – said Deputy Minister of Economic Development Oleg Fomichev). But another collapse in oil prices and the depreciation of the ruble to historic lows again forced officials to prepare special measures to support the economy. “Events are developing in such a way that some time ago it seemed that you can do without a special plan to translate the government’s work in a routine standard form,” – said Dmitry Medvedev on Wednesday. But “taking into account the last three to four weeks, things are going,” members of the government “did agree” that the cabinet will continue to work within the framework of the plan to support the economy.

The decision to prepare a new package anti-crisis measures taken in response to the rapid collapse of quotations at the beginning of this week, said a government source. Prior to that, the government was not planning any special action other than the adaptation of the federal budget.

Question 420 000 000 000

According to sources, the government is working on two fronts. One of them – the proper preparation of anti-crisis plan. Its cost, according to one source, is estimated at 200 billion rubles. More about 220 billion rubles. can be used to support specific sectors of the economy, told the RBC in the government. But there’s a problem: The Finance Ministry believes that the 400 billion rubles. plus – it’s too expensive. The Office is ready to agree to an amount less than half, sources say. Officially this topic Finance Ministry does not comment on.

Olga Golodets on Thursday announced its intention to include in the anti-crisis plan “serious measures to support the population.” It is about doindeksatsii pensions in excess of 4%, measures to support the labor market and further liberalization of the use of the parent capital, said a government official familiar with the proposals of the Ministry of Labor. A source told RBC that on behalf of Dmitry Medvedev’s anti-crisis plan should be submitted to the government on Monday, on 25 January. Proposals must summarize the departments of Economic Development. Finally edit points anti-crisis plan is expected at the meeting with the Prime Minister on the same day. Meeting on budgetary issues is scheduled for 16:00, said a source in the Cabinet.

The representative of the Ministry of Economy confirmed that the agency “is working on the formation of proposals for updating the Plan of the Government of the Russian Federation to stabilize the socio-economic development.”

In 2015, the priority anti-crisis measures of the government were estimated at 2.3 trillion rubles. The bulk of these funds were taken from the National Welfare Fund. From the federal budget for the anti-crisis measures planned to spend 311 billion rubles. In October 2015 the Ministry of Finance to report on implementation of the budget of the plan by 78.5%. Report on the effectiveness of last year’s anti-crisis measures will be ready only in February this year, sources said the Ministry of Economy.

According to sources RBC discussed the direction and the second crisis – measures to support sectors of the economy. Discussions are under way as to make the anti-crisis plan and measures to support sectors do not overlap each other. The meeting on the subject held by Dmitry Medvedev on January 20. After him, the head of the Industry and Trade Denis Manturov informed about the readiness of the government to support the auto industry, transport machinery and light industry.

From the words of the Minister indicated that further support the automotive industry will be 25 billion rubles., And light industry will be supported in the amount of 600 mln. But sources in the government told RBC that the total amount of support for the industry would be much greater. According to them, in general, support industries is estimated at about 220 billion rubles.

without involving all hands

The result of the recent meetings was the decision not to rush to “rush job” the sequestration of the budget, the source said RBC. According to him, too strong price volatility makes it impossible to determine the size of the reduction. In the first half of the money in the budget will be enough without sequestration, emphasizes the interlocutor RBC.

According to sources, after the anti-crisis plan and measures to support the industry will be presented to President Vladimir Putin at a meeting on January 27 he is expected to order cook changes in macroeconomic forecast in April 2016. To date, all stress scenarios, which operate until the Ministry of Economy and the Finance Ministry, is still considered to be “exercises for the mind,” says a government source.

In the spring with realistic average annual budget parameters will be easier to decide. While the target indication is stored to prepare for the 10-percent linear cut costs, according to the source of RBC. But on the sidelines even discussed likelihood of 25 percent reduction in costs. This may be vulnerable even defense spending, said the source RBK.

In discussing anti-crisis plan, measures to support the economy and the budget sequester it remains unclear how to use such a development institution like Vnesheconombank. Bank “toxic waste” it has been the crisis of 2008-2009, and now he needs help in the amount of 1.5 trillion rubles. The anti-crisis plan in 2015 was planned to skip through VEB 300 billion rubles from the budget to support the real sector of the economy, but this has not happened. It is not known whether the fall VEB bailout plan in 2016, said a source in the government. According to him, the Finance Ministry agreed to participate in the rehabilitation “of the Olympic debt” of the bank, but no more. The representative of the Ministry of Finance declined to comment on the issues VEB.