Photo: REUTERS 2016
The unusually strong fall in oil prices (this week the cost of a barrel of Brent dropped to nearly $ 27) has created a new reality in which the peak of the economic crisis has not yet passed, said the former Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
«2016 carries risks. Neither aides nor I thought that would be a new big collapse in oil prices, this has created a new reality. Therefore, the peak of the crisis is yet to come “, – Kudrin said at the World Economic Forum in Davos (quoted by TASS).
The ex-minister stressed that the negative trends in the Russian economy may affect both the country’s defense, and its role in foreign policy.
At the same time, Kudrin expressed hope that 2017 will be the year of the beginning of growth of the Russian economy, and by the end of 2016 to begin the process of easing imposed on Russia sanctions.
«I am confident that the sanctions begin to decline at the end of this year – early next. No one in Russia is not going to keep the confrontation, I think, will be performed by the Minsk Agreement, and thus the conflict on sanctions will be resolved, “- said Kudrin (quoted by” Interfax “), Russia and the West is not opposed to each other as ideologically different systems, they are “absolutely united in determining the value of a market economy and democracy”, no “cold war” is not, and geopolitical crisis, sooner or later will come to naught.
On the eve of an interview with Business FM Kudrin warned that in the near future, the price of oil may continue to decline and dropped to a certain period to $ 13-14 per barrel.
«In 1998, a few months the price of oil was $ 8 per barrel. If we translate this into prices this year, when, if you count inflation indices over the years, which means $ 13-14 at current prices. This means that it can happen. I do not exclude a very short period of a few months, a very low price, “- said Kudrin said, noting that the average oil price in 2016 could be about $ 25-30.
In the middle of January 2016 Speaking at the Gaidar Forum in Moscow, Kudrin called the main difference of the current crisis on the events of 2008 a sharp increase in the number of poor people. In 2008, according to the former head of the Ministry of Finance, the real incomes of the population as a whole did not fall due to the active financial support from the state, but this time the situation is different.
«We went into another lane when the problems became more acute. We say that we will carry out all social obligations, and at this time the number of poor will continue to grow “, – warned Kudrin.
Earlier, ex-minister predicted that in 2016 the real incomes of the population will fall by nearly 7% and real wages – by 10%, while the unemployment rate will rise considerably. In October 2015, Kudrin also said about the inevitability of higher taxes in Russia in the next 5-10 years, and a possible return to the progressive tax scale for individuals.
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