Moscow. The 25th of January. INTERFAX.RU – The key question of the moment – whether the completed period of strong fluctuations of the ruble, and we still are in the danger zone? And maybe, on the contrary, the rise of the dollar, the euro and the fall of the ruble last week were just some episode, and now everything is getting better and getting well?
The question naturally arises after the CBR second times in a row greatly reduces the exchange rates of the currencies – the dollar and the euro: dollar exchange rate set for Tuesday – 77.8 rubles (almost 6 rubles less than the dollar rate set by the Central Bank on Thursday to Friday – 83.59 rubles, and more than 8 rubles below the maximum dollar at the auction reached on Thursday in the middle of the day and makes 85.999 rubles). Fresh euro – 84.16 rubles (about 7 rubles less than the official exchange rate of the euro on Friday, and 9 rubles below the highs euros).
it is probable that the retreat of the dollar and the euro on and it will stop. And on Tuesday, the Central Bank will start again to reduce the ruble. This is evidenced by the course of trading currencies on the Moscow Stock Exchange in the second half of Monday: the dollar rose to around 80 rubles to the dollar.
Experts “Interfax-CEA” point to the remarkable fact: both in the fall of oil prices in the last week ruble “behind” on oil, resulting in the ruble value of a barrel once again updated the long-term (since 2010) at least reached 2200 rubles, and now, when oil prices sharply played up the ruble is also lagging behind. Now, the oil price rose to 2450-2500 rubles, which is still very low (so that the budget could be reduced with a planned deficit of a little less than 3% of the price, according to the calculations, would have to make 3,150 rubles). But at least it’s some step in the direction to an imbalance in relation to the ruble fell.
However, market participants recognize that, no matter how ver, oil prices remain a major influencing factor for the ruble . The prices shown tentative signs of consolidation – but only the most timid: oil Brent, falls into the middle of the last week to $ 27 per barrel and soaring on Monday morning to $ 32.7 per barrel (about 20% of the increase – but it is necessary to understand some of the lowest levels of this growth has been), I retreated to the area of $ 31 per barrel. If at this level the price hold much else – will be fine (this, though, would mean a break in the ongoing three-month consecutive drop in oil prices).
Thus, the short-term it will be – for the Russian – well . A long-term – still bad: after all, the key macroeconomic forecasts authorities built on the basis of much higher than now, the price of oil! So, according to many experts, conservation of oil at current levels will not ensure the ruble stability.
The market participants have concluded that as the pressure on the ruble is not very strong, and in the coming days, probably, it will not increase. “The weakening of the ruble last week has not caused an excessive demand for foreign currency, although the volume of trading in the middle of the week turned out to be above average,” – says analyst “Uralsib Capital” Irina Lebedeva. According to her, in the short term, some support the ruble may have a demand for liquidity. “Today the company is the large tax payments. This factor was able to provide some support to the ruble on Friday. The growth of the ruble was even higher than one would expect based on the dynamics of oil prices, we believe that it is caused by just increasing demand for liquidity to tax payments, “- she said, adding that another chance to support the ruble will term payments of income tax, coming on Thursday.
Experts” Interfax-CEA “also believe that the intensity fluctuations of the dollar and the euro will fall. Fluctuations will go near the levels achieved, the dollar may remain slightly below 80 rubles ./$ 1, the euro will oscillate near 85 rub. / EUR1, they write, evaluating the prospects exchange rate until the end of the month.
The basis of the forecast – the assumption that market participants would prefer to take a wait and see mood on the eve of the meeting of the Central Bank; At the same time, world oil prices to stop the decline and remain mostly slightly above $ 30 per barrel. At the same time, the euro will remain under pressure and some may retreat against the US dollar after the ECB meeting on January 21 which had been promised an additional stimulus measures. Factors supporting the ruble in the week will be an increased demand for ruble liquidity due to the tax period.
However, this is – a short-term forecast; and what happens to the rate in February, while you can only guess …
Andrew Lusnikov
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