After the collapse of the Azerbaijani manat to a record 33.5% per day in Baku prices soared by a third. What distinguishes the currency panic in Absheron from December Russian, says “Times».
In the currency market of Azerbaijan serious shocks. The official exchange rate set for Saturday Central Bank of Azerbaijan (CBA) has appeared once for 33.5% lower than the previous rate – 1.05 manat per $ 1 instead of 0.78 manat. Previous rate remained stable and held since mid-2011.
After the fall of the manat began to appear reports about suspension of foreign exchange in exchange.
All the CBA banks ordered to work this weekend as usual – to avoid panic. “Queues in exchange I did not see, – says” Gazeta.ru “Roman, one of the residents of Baku. – This is reasonable, in such situations, it seems to me, it is better to take a break. ” However, according to him, the concentration of exchange points in Baku is much higher than in Moscow, and he lives in the area where they are most.
Weather further reduce the number of wishing to engage in currency exchange transactions.
«Saturday as commissioned rose snowstorm, and it is for us almost a natural disaster. Few people on the streets, “- says a local resident.
On Monday rate was left unchanged – until February 24, according to the official report of the CBA. While in Baku today a normal working day.
Manat cheaper in Russia – another 3 February rate was 89 rubles. 1 manat. But it is interesting that while officially it is still more expensive than the dollar.
The official rate of the Bank of Russia set up to medium – 78.5 rubles. 1 manat, while the exchange rate of the dollar – 61.7 rubles ./$ 1. Exchangers, however, provide for AZN 50.5 rubles already.
The collapse due to the fact that the Central Bank of Azerbaijan refused by binding of the manat to the US dollar since February 16. “This decision was made in order to encourage diversification of the economy of Azerbaijan, enhance its international competitiveness and export capacity, ensure the sustainability of the balance of payments”, – stated in the CBA. To take this step regulator forced the fall in oil prices – the main export product of the state. Wanting to support the budget revenues, the Central Bank went to the devaluation.
The problem is that even a few days before, the head of the Central Bank Elman Rustamov in an interview with The Financial Times promised to prevent a sharp collapse of the course.
Any weakening currency, Rustamov said to be gradual, and the Central Bank will “take into account the interests of the people».
Unlike from Moscow, where in the early days of the collapse of the ruble shops were empty, and the low price tags – the crowd, massively buying up household appliances and buckwheat, surged in the shops of the Russian Federation later – in Baku trade responds quickly to what is happening.
«Someone has already responded and lifted prices. Appliance stores, especially large ones, immediately removed the price tags and sell at a premium, so that the Russian version will not work – says Roman. – In a large department store sales were removed from the city of gold jewelry. All hedge risks as may ».
Many prices have already increased by a third, a number of shops remain closed on Monday.
« It should be understood that the Azerbaijani economy and raw materials import-oriented – up to 60% of the consumer basket of goods is imported. Therefore, inflation is highly dependent on currency fluctuations, “- says analyst FC” InstaForex “Anton Fomin.
CBA expects that inflation will be 5.7% in 2015 after 1.4% in 2014. “We should expect significant growth in prices. At least, imported goods to rise by 40%, and it will create a psychological basis for a similar rise in prices for local goods and services, “- said economist Nazim Mammadov agency « Novosti-Azerbaijan ».
Experts “Gazety.Ru” does not exclude the positive effect of the devaluation of the budget of Azerbaijan. However, according to them, it will be short-term.
«Short-term it will help stabilize the balance of payments and trade, and not to spend the accumulated foreign exchange reserves to imports,” – said Fomin. Azerbaijan’s currency reserves of $ 52 billion (data CBA), or 70% of GDP. According to Rustamov, from the beginning of 2015 to about $ 1 billion was spent on the maintenance of the manat.
«Manat – a strong currency, and the national currency exchange rate adjustment will reduce further risks. Simply put, do not repeat the mistakes of their neighbors. Russian experience has shown the consequences of the uncontrolled excitement and panic, “- writes Day.az.
« The devaluation of the national currency also stimulates the growth of industrial production and increase budget revenues through exports “- continues Fomin. And CBA says it plans to stimulate the domestic market, including through the purchase of mortgage bonds, to support small and medium-sized businesses, as well as direct support to the banking sector.
But while these measures do not work, talk about the positive effect early, while the effect of the rise in prices will not take long. “In the medium and long term it may be too negative effect on the economy,” – fears Fomin.
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