Russia’s economy is waiting for a prolonged recession – Saminvestor

Russia's economy is waiting for a prolonged recession – Saminvestor

In 2015, Russia’s GDP will fall by 3% due to Western sanctions, the decline in world oil prices and reduced consumer activity, experts of the Ministry of Economic Development. However, the decline will be partly offset by anti-crisis measures of the Russian government.

February 16, 2015 Ministry of Economic Development published a forecast of socio-economic development of Russia for the current year, which implies that this year the national economy “entered a period of prolonged recession.” According to the ministry, Russia’s GDP will fall by the end of this year by 3% after rising 0.6% in 2014. In this case, the agency notes that the pronounced slowdown in economic growth observed since mid-2012, helped by the debt crisis and the recession in the euro area, as well as the structural problems of the domestic economy, “due to the advanced growth of costs».

«escalation of the conflict Ukraine, the imposition of economic sanctions against Russia and fall in oil prices since mid-2014 led to an increase in uncertainty, reduce income and a sharp deterioration in business confidence – according to the materials of Economic Development. Restricting access to international capital markets and the tightening of monetary policy led to an increase in borrowing costs that even more negative impact on investment demand and consumer sentiment caused by increased capital outflows, weakening of the ruble and a surge in inflation ».

According to Assessment Office, one of the most important factors that will have a negative impact on the dynamics of the Russian economy in 2015, in addition to the above, will be a decline in consumer activity. This will contribute to the decline in real disposable income (according to Ministry of Economic Development – by 6.3% due to lower wages by 9.6%) and a high debt burden on the Russians. At the same time in the department believe that the scale of layoffs Russian employers will be less than during the 2008-2009 crisis. by reducing the number of working-age population and an increase in import-substituting industries. Ministry of Economic Development experts also believe that the decline in GDP will be restrained by anti-crisis measures of the Russian government. Without developed in the last months of the program GDP would fall by 3.9%, according to the agency.

Anton Porokhov,

Information Agency “Saminvestor».

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