Пятница, 20 февраля 2015 г.
On an annualized basis, according to the latest data from Rosstat, inflation has already reached 16 percent.
Inflation is now due to one-off factors: more than 10 percentage points in it – this effect is a sharp weakening of the ruble exchange rate and foreign trade restrictions, Oreshkin said.
“The main task of the government and the Central Bank – to prevent high inflation from a single event become permanent. The main thing is that in the current situation we have witnessed so called inflationary spiral, “- he said, speaking on Friday in the Federation Council.
Speaking of inflationary pressures growth of budget expenditures this year, Oreshkin said that limit its power in the government.
“We expect that the purpose of the Central Bank – inflation below 10 percent by the end of January 2016 – during the correct fiscal policy can be achieved”.
The correct fiscal policy will be in the following case:
“In taking our proposals to reduce the rate of growth of budget expenditures on the planned and limiting indexation of wages of state employees”.
In this case, Oreshkin said that budget spending this year will grow faster than in previous years, creates risks for inflation.
Oreshkin called on the authorities to comply with the same fiscal policy, which has been at the exit from the crisis of 2008-2009, and then the budget deficit gradually gave way to a surplus.
devaluation EFFECT
The influence of the weakening of the ruble price growth has attenuated, this year the ruble may continue outlined recently strengthening.
“As a result, we expect a strong balance of payments, and it is possible that trend in the strengthening of the ruble will continue (during the year), “- said Oreshkin.
Asked what would happen to export sales of foreign currency earnings after March 1, state-owned companies (to this date the authorities were obliged to reduce their foreign currency assets at the expense of uniform sales of foreign exchange earnings to support the ruble), Oreshkin said:
“I think that everything related to this issue has already minimal impact on the currency market, its liquidity largely restored. Talk about some kind of relationship with the dynamics of the exchange rate is not necessary “.
He said that now the negotiations with major exporters on sales of the currency continues to the Central Bank, but the impact of exporters on the foreign exchange market has weakened.
“hard peg conversion (currency proceeds) from exporters to date tax payments no longer exists in reality”, – said the official.
Dealers say that the ruble rose in price at auction in the morning mainly due to export currency sales in anticipation of paying big taxes, and the same operation smoothing effect of the high volatility of oil prices.
The conversion of the Reserve Fund, which the Ministry of Finance held this week, will not affect inflation, since the same amount of the Central Bank reduces the amount of refinancing of the banking system, said Oreshkin.
“Today policy (monetary and fiscal) are interrelated and do not lead to the formation of excess pressure on inflation – the official said. – The key question – is the amount of federal budget expenditures “.
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