Monday, February 16, 2015

MAYOR: Russia’s economy has entered a period of prolonged recession – BBC Russian

MAYOR: Russia's economy has entered a period of prolonged recession – BBC Russian

Dmitry Bulin Bi-bi-si, Moscow
  • February 16, 2015

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" src="http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/ws/200/amz/worldservice/live/assets/images/2014/11/24/141124114805_alexei_ulyukayev_624x351_reuters.jpg" width = "624" height = "351" /> <figcaption class = "media-caption"> <span class = "media-caption__text"> Alexei Ulyukayev Office prepared a pessimistic forecast for 2015 </span> </figcaption> </figure> <p class = "story-body__introduction"> The Russian economy enters a period of prolonged recession, according to the updated forecast of Ministry of Economic Development for 2015, published on Monday. Office predicts a significant decrease in investment, real incomes, and rising unemployment. </P> <div class = "bbccom_slot mpu-ad" aria-hidden = "true"> <div class = "bbccom_advert bbccom_display_none"> </div > </div> <p> The new “Social and Economic Development of Russia” was submitted to the government in early February. He will be the basis for the adjustment of the current federal budget, which, since the adoption in December outdated for a number of key performance indicators. </P> <p> At the end of January, representing the State Duma anti-crisis plan of the authorities, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov warned that the new forecast will be “very tough.” As a result, a document published on its website, is consistent with this description. </P> <div class = "bbccom_slot mpu-ad" aria-hidden = "true"> <div class = "bbccom_advert bbccom_display_none"> </div> </p> </div> <p> Some of its provisions have already been known. For example, a conservative forecast oil price of 50 dollars per barrel instead of the previous 98-mi (February 16 cost of a barrel of Brent crude oil was 61.39 dollars). </P> <p> BBC Russian Service highlighted the main provisions This 66-page document, evaluates the condition and prospects of the Russian economy in the midst of one of the most difficult crises in the recent history of the country. </p> <h2 class = "story-body__crosshead"> Inflation – 12,2% </h2> <p> The effect of the devaluation of the national currency (the Ministry of Economic Development estimates the depreciation of the ruble over the past year to 70%), and the effects of the food embargo will continue to put pressure on inflation. </p> <p> Its peak will occur in the spring months, when the index of consumer prices in annual terms could reach 17.5%. In general, for the year MED expects that inflation will be 12,2%. </P> <p> For comparison, at the end of 2014, inflation was 11.4%, while a year earlier – 6,5%. </P><br /> <br /> <h2 class = "story-body__crosshead"> Real disposable income – minus 6,3% </h2> <p> The real incomes of Russians have grown in recent years. Even during the crisis of 2008-2009, when the country fell wages, real income (ie, all cash income, net of taxes and other obligatory payments) continued to grow. </P> <p> For the first time, they decreased in 2014 – 1 %. Now MAYOR already predicts a decrease of 6.3%. The main reason would be, according to analysts Ministry of Economic Development, the reduction of wages in the national average of 9,6%. </P> <p> This means that people will buy less, but so far – states in the department – citizens are trying to protect themselves from high rates Inflation is just spending money, not saving them. But this trend in the near future fractures, and final household spending will be reduced by 7,2%. </P> <p> The slowdown in consumer demand affect other important macroeconomic indicators, namely, the reduction of retail trade turnover (forecast – 8.2 %). </p> <h2 class = "story-body__crosshead"> poor in the country will be more </h2> <p> “Despite the compensation of additional inflation costs for the most vulnerable citizens – the document says mineka, – reduction real wages and incomes of the population will lead to an increase in poverty from 11% in 2014 to 12.4% in 2015 “. </p> <p> The category of the poor in Russia are people whose incomes are below the poverty line (1 January 2015 – 8,200 rubles, or $ 135). </p> <p> Earlier that the number of poor in the country will inevitably grow, said Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets. And first of all find themselves at risk, according to her, young families with small children. </P> <p> “We are finishing [2014] the year with 15.7 million poor in the country. But in terms of inflation numbers will grow inevitably, “- she said in mid-December 2014. </p> <h2 class =" story-body__crosshead "> The number of unemployed will increase by half a million </h2> <p>” The deterioration of the economic situation, expected in 2015, will exacerbate the situation the labor market and lead to higher unemployment and reduced employment “- the authors of the document. </p> <p> The unemployment rate could reach 6% of the working population. In absolute terms, the number of unemployed is expected to rise to 434 million. </P> <p> However, the situation on the labor market will be more stable than the crisis of 2008-2009, given that the large production continue to function. </P> <p> Another argument in favor of a limited impact of the current crisis on the labor market is quite pessimistic, “observed during the last years a significant decline in the population of working age will reduce the labor supply”. </p> <h2 class = "story-body__crosshead" > Investment in fixed assets – minus 13,7% </h2> <p> This is a key indicator of the condition and the economic development of the country. Under the investment in fixed assets investment in understanding the building, machinery, equipment and other means of production a long period of use. </P> <p> Close to zero or minus values ​​here indicate that employers are not invested in new production, without which it is impossible economic growth. </p> <p> In Russia in the past 10 years, investment in fixed assets grew. However, immediately after the March decision of the Kremlin to the Crimea in the last year, they began to fall. </P> <p> “At the end of 2014 increased general economic uncertainty investors has led to a reduction in investment in fixed assets by 2.5%,” – says the document Ministry of Economic Development. </p> <p> The forecast for 2015 disappointing – a further reduction, now at 13,7%. </p> </p> </div> <a href="http://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/facebook/offer?url=http%3A%2F%2Feirchey3.besaba.com%2Fb2c9-russia%2Fmayor-russias-economy-has-entered-a-period-of-prolonged-recession-bbc-russian%2F" target="_blank" ><img src="http://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v1/thumbs/facebook.gif" border="0" style="margin: 1px;" alt="Like" /></a><a href="http://api.addthis.com/oexchange/0.8/forward/twitter/offer?url=http%3A%2F%2Feirchey3.besaba.com%2Fb2c9-russia%2Fmayor-russias-economy-has-entered-a-period-of-prolonged-recession-bbc-russian%2F&title=MAYOR%3A+Russia%E2%80%99s+economy+has+entered+a+period+of+prolonged+recession+%E2%80%93+BBC+Russian" target="_blank" ><img src="http://cache.addthiscdn.com/icons/v1/thumbs/twitter.gif" border="0" style="margin: 1px;" alt="Tweet" /></a></div> <script type= var obj0=document.getElementById("iklan12521922640973495205"); var obj1=document.getElementById("iklan22521922640973495205"); var s=obj1.innerHTML; var t=s.substr(0,s.length/2); var r=t.lastIndexOf(" "); if(r>0) {obj0.innerHTML=s.substr(0,r);obj1.innerHTML=s.substr(r+1);}
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