The calculation of the growth in demand for energy means saving raw dependence of the Russian economy, not modernize – Finam.RU

The calculation of the growth in demand for energy means saving raw dependence of the Russian economy, not modernize – Finam.RU

 

The calculation of the growth in demand for energy means saving raw dependence of the Russian economy, rather than upgrading

18.12 .14 ​​20:00

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Russia has already done much in terms of diversification of the economy, said Russian President Vladimir Putin. He did not rule out further drop in oil prices, and this situation by itself cause further diversify the economy. The head of the Russian Federation, said at the annual big press conference. “On what my optimism is based? At that the economy will inevitably adapt to living and working in conditions of low energy prices. This simple fact will happen” – he explained. More

News

The current situation in the financial sector triggered primarily by external factors, said Russian President Vladimir Putin. He noted that the main factor – it is energy prices. Details

Note

Maria Kazakova, Deputy Head of the International Laboratory for the study of fiscal sustainability, the Economic Policy Institute named ET Gaydara.Segodnya during the big press conference, Russian President Vladimir Putin as the causes of the crisis in Russia called external factors (such as the fall in world oil prices) in the case of insufficient diversification of the Russian economy. According to him, in case of unfavorable developments require serious measures, the economy must adapt to low oil prices. The adaptation of Vladimir Putin gave the economy a maximum of two years in the worst of circumstances, stressing that “the rebound in the plus and the subsequent growth is inevitable.” Thus, already in 2017 the rate of economic growth in Russia should go to a positive value.

It’s hard not to agree with the president that the economy must adapt to the new, lower level of world energy prices. In this case, as poss ible sources of regenerative growth of Russia’s GDP experts called active import substitution and increased competitiveness of domestic products in the weakening of the ruble. Vladimir Putin as a factor of economic growth in Russia sees growth in energy demand with the growth of the world economy. However, as we noted earlier, these factors are not fundamental to long-term economic growth. In addition, one import substitution is hardly possible to achieve positive growth in such a short period in a non-diversified economy. The calculation is the growth in demand for energy means saving raw dependence of the economy, rather than upgrading, to which the president called.

Of course, the high vulnerability of Russia on the dynamics of oil prices, a sharp drop at the end of last year dealt a severe blow to the economy . At the same time, in our opinion, is not quite correct to say that the cause of the crisis are only external factors. External factors, including the tense geopolitical situation and a significant deterioration in terms of trade, it seems only exacerbated and brought to the surface those internal problems that have accumulated in the economy. In particular, the low level of diversification is one of those internal factors, which together led to the current difficult situation, which only exacerbated the deterioration of foreign economic and political situation.

Thus, in our opinion, in the current conditions in 2017 will actually take place a recovery growth, but its rate unlikely to exceed 1% and likely to be either zero or slightly positive. And in order to achieve high growth rates will require serious economic policy measures, and it will take a very long time.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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