Sunday, December 21, 2014

Crisis flooded with dollars – BBC

Crisis flooded with dollars – BBC

As the “Gazeta.ru”, support the ruble by selling on the exchange of foreign currency earnings was the main topic of the meeting of President Vladimir Putin with the largest Russian businessmen. Companies were asked to sell the currency portions of the schedule at least until the New Year. Due to informal arrangements with business authorities intend to bring down the panic on the stock exchange and heat exchangers.

On Friday evening, Vladimir Putin held a meeting with the business community. 41 invited to a meeting businessman – the largest and most influential. Among them was even just released from house arrest Vladimir Yevtushenko. Whether it was an invitation to act instructively or otherwise on other participants, remained unclear.



Hand over currency

In any case, Putin made no secret that he intends to discuss in the first place critical situation with the national currency (depreciated almost 2.5 times since the beginning of the year). The key purpose of the meeting in the Kremlin – the impact on the currency market, reported three sources “Gazety.Ru” close to the participants of the event. According to the results of exporters recommended selling foreign exchange earnings derived from the sale of products abroad, according to a defined schedule.

You can sell and you need to buy in the domestic market – no. Sales chart currency proposed by the working group composed of members of the government and the Central Bank.

Legislative solutions and strict liability no mechanism for selling is built on personal arrangements, the president said it was “our civic responsibility,” says One of the sources. “We may need, an estimated $ 10 billion or so” – counts the source in the government, noting that the mechanism is appropriate to apply until 1 January. Evaluation another source “Newspapers. Ru »- $ 20-30 billion in 2-3 weeks. But in any case, the amount sold currency should be sufficient to stabilize the exchange rate of the national currency, to remove the wild horse race course, one of the sources said.

«This, in fact, is the goal: to stabilize the exchange rate, to prevent more sharp falls. Then people will not withdraw money from bank accounts, “- he said.

Earlier, similar recommendations were given to state companies and exporters.

The question “Gazety.Ru” on the regulation of the sale of foreign exchange earnings, the press service of the Central Bank said that the specific recommendations exporting companies are in competence of the government and the Central Bank in this case there is only an analytic function. Press secretary Dmitry Medvedev Natalia Timakova did not respond to a request. The representative of the Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov declined to comment on the meeting with the president. Get the Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Economic comment failed. Representatives of the meeting on Saturday could not comment on the situation.



Speaking from the heart

The preparatory work was carried out before the meeting. According to the source “Gazety.Ru” in government, the last three days representatives of ministries and departments were contacted by telephone with large exporters, shareholders and owners, and had with them a kind of informal conversation. The conversation took place about in this form: “The situation with the ruble we know what? – “I know” – “You can, if possible, is not to exacerbate the problem – to sell part of foreign currency earnings to prop up the ruble and reassure citizens?” Later in the conversation was scheduled fork. Someone agreed with the recommendation, and someone – no.

Conscientious objectors say: “I have a debt in foreign currency, the ruble released to float freely. So I’m saving up. Make me not have the right. ” Thus replied: “Well, do you know how. We have no right to force anyone. But if tomorrow you will come to the government to ask for support, state guarantees, loans from FNB and all … do not blame me ».

How many

Putin assured that exporters reined about $ 300 billion. At the same amount he hinted during a press conference on December 18, saying that personally telephoned one of the exporters, who said that he could sell on the market $ 3 billion. $ 300 billion – maybe it’s too much, but $ 50-70 billion can be collected pretending to co-chair of “Business Russia” Anton Danilov-. It is still comparable to the volume of foreign exchange sold to the Central Bank to maintain the course – from the beginning of the year gave control to maintain the ruble about $ 85 billion. How many currently accumulated in reserves in large companies is difficult to say. The largest oil and gas reserves in the players and metallurgists.

The “Surgutneftegaz” dollar theft, for example, is about $ 35 billion accumulated deposits, and virtually no debt.

In December, the head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin said that “over the past nine months of this year, the company has generated about $ 118 billion in revenue, of which $ 75 billion were sold in the Russian market.” Some steelmakers, such as “Rusal” also have currency in the accounts, but seriously burdened with debts, denominated in dollars, including.



1998 – 2008 – 2014

Sale exporting currency – one of the elements of the anti-crisis plan in 1998, resembles a chief economist at financial group BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov.

In those days, exporters were required to sell a portion of foreign currency earnings, otherwise event occurs consequences – administrative, and not only. The only difference is that then forced to sell foreign exchange earnings, and is now trying to persuade and recommend the expert says.

The last crisis (in 2008) the money is not extinguished exporters and from the reserve fund of the Central Bank. The administrators, as they said officials devaluation of the ruble Bank spent about $ 100-120 billion. “But then in the reserves was $ 600 billion, now a half times less, and most importantly, the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance did not want to spend it in a situation of complete unpredictability, “- said Tikhomirov.

Perhaps the crisis would require a large expenditure, but in February 2009, oil prices went up and the foreign exchange market began to stabilize. Now oil falls from the beginning of the year, and no one can say how much will cost a barrel. For some time, the situation can be corrected, but in principle the ruble depends precisely on the oil factor.

«If oil stabilizes at least at the level of $ 60 per barrel, then reset to market dollar and the euro in billionths scale may even reverse the trend, and the ruble will begin to strengthen. If oil prices continue to decline, at the expense of exporters pay off will not work “, – said Tikhomirov.

According to him, the Central Bank should not have been in any way prevent a sharp drop in the ruble. But the desire to keep the reserves can be understood. The external debt of the government, banks and companies – $ 650 billion. Of these, about $ 300 billion – is the external debt and external debt of state companies. “If the crisis will last two years, the Reserve Fund and the reserve funds of the Central Bank run much faster,” – says Tikhomirov.

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