Start structural reforms in the economy of the Russian authorities will be able to at a price of $ 40 per barrel, according to experts surveyed by Bloomberg. This price is optimal in order to avoid the risk of a stall in a new crisis
The optimal for Russia in the oil price is now the price is about $ 40 per barrel, showed a poll conducted by Bloomberg experts. This price, as stated in the article, is low enough to make the inevitable institutional reform of the economy, and at the same time high enough to prevent the collapse of the financial market.
More than half surveyed by Bloomberg experts believe that it is the price of a barrel of Brent at $ 40, on the one hand, will force the Russian authorities to carry out reforms, and on the other – will allow them to start without the risk of falling into a new crisis. About 30% of respondents believe such a critical point price of $ 30 per barrel, and in the fact that the reforms will start at a price above $ 50, believe only about 5%.
«Price in the region of $ 30 has caused turmoil but when it is approaching the $ 50 the people who make the decisions, they have calmed down. Getting real reform – this is a risky business, “- said the chief economist at the Institute of Contemporary Development Evgeny Gontmaher
The article Bloomberg emphasized that it is in a period of relatively low oil prices, the policy of the Russian authorities was particularly balanced and good for the economy. . Thus, the decision to introduce a flat income tax rate and the creation of the National Welfare Fund were adopted at a time when world oil prices hovered below $ 40 a barrel.
«Every time when oil prices were low The government intended reforms. With a decrease in oil prices to lows in 2004 a historical perspective could push the government to move to a more liberal policy, “- said Bloomberg’s chief economist for Russia at Bank of America Vladimir Osakovsky
In the course of trading on Monday on the stock exchange ICE. a barrel of Brent crude cost ranges between $ 47.5 and $ 48, which is slightly above the closing level of the previous trading.
In April 2016, when a barrel of Brent oil price hovered just above $ 40, Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev , speaking with a report to the state Duma, declared that the government’s ability to finance economic and social development depend essentially on the export of raw materials and the need for reform. Prime Minister, however, said that too fast conducting such reforms would deepen the crisis.
«Yes, the country needs deep structural reforms, the Government is well aware of, but also to understand how this is now reflected in the social sphere. Any forced conversion would strengthen and extend the crisis for another few years. So I want to say, reforms at the expense of people, we will not hold “- then said the head of government
At the end of May 2016, Russian President Vladimir Putin (barrel of Brent at the time was worth about $ 50) is also recognized. that “the reserves and resources at the beginning of the two thousandth moved the economy forward, do not work as before»
.
«If we do not find new sources of growth, the dynamics of GDP will be somewhere around zero. It is necessary to ensure at the same time an increase in the rate of growth of the domestic economy and structural reforms to enhance its efficiency. It is very important to maintain macroeconomic stability and prevent the buildup of budget deficits and the acceleration of inflation “, – said the head of state
Later, former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin said in an interview with RBC he said that he sees the Russian politicians” more incentives. finally, to engage seriously in the growth “of the economy, explaining, however, that” in the next two years, before the elections, no radical steps will be. ”
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