The Russian economy came a turning point. By the end of June, Russia’s GDP returned to the “green” zone, an increase of 0.1%, after declining by 0.3% in May, according to the analytical report of Vnesheconombank (VEB).
This is the first monthly increase in GDP in more than a year and a half
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«in June, the economic dynamics straightened somewhat, partly offsetting the decline in May. We estimate that GDP was 0.1% higher than in the previous month, after declining in May by 0.3%, “- are contained in the report of the words of the chief economist of the bank, the former Deputy Minister of Economic Development Andrei Klepach
<. p> The positive dynamics of GDP in June, contributed most to the processing industry: they are aggregated index with removed seasonality increased by 0.6%. Also, the contribution rendered and growth industries such as transport (0.6%), mining (0.1%) and agricultural production (0,1%).
However, these positive factors They were almost completely offset by the negative impact that had on GDP dynamics of construction index (-1.4%) and paid services (-1.1%), wholesale and retail trade (-0.1%) and electricity, gas and water . (-0,1%)
GDP growth in June has not yet been able to overcome the general trend: in the second quarter of Russia’s GDP in annual terms fell by 0.7% of GDP .
the good news is that the economic contraction has slowed: in the first three months of 2016, Russia’s GDP fell by 1.2%. For comparison, in the first quarter of 2015. GDP contracted by 2.8%, while in the second – on 4,5%
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Thus, the second quarter of this year, to some degree was the best for the last year and a half, showing the smallest drop .
optimistic about the Russian economy is set up and the Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev. “To improve the situation in the real economy. If last year’s production decline was 3.7% in the first quarter of this year, it dropped to 1.2%, compared to May – up to 0.8%. And in the near future, we expect that the dynamics of the GDP will come out in the positive plane, “- he said July 19th. The Ministry of Economic Development of scenario conditions in the years 2015-2019, which were published in April 2016, in the baseline scenario predicts that GDP will fall by 0.2% in 2016 to grow by 0.8% next year, further growth will accelerate to 1 8% in 2018 and 2.2% in 2019 year. In 2015, Russia’s economy shrank by 3.7%. However, to speak about the irrevocable withdrawal from the crisis and the beginning of sustained growth is premature, analysts believe
«I think one month is impossible to judge -. Our analysis shows that there are constant fluctuations: one month’s production improves, the other – comes back, – said in a conversation with “Gazetoy.Ru” head of the Economic expert group (EEG) Evsei Gurvich. – We see that there are still negative factors: a reduction in consumer demand can not see investment growth »
In addition, all the calculations for GDP growth are made with a certain error, which must be remembered, speaking about. that “we pushed off from the bottom,” recalls the director of the Center for macroeconomic research Sberbank Yulia Tseplyaeva. “Well, of course, results in June were better than in May, but I think you have to look for another two months before the state change in the trend”, – says Gurvich
Even if the Russian economy continues to grow, and in the next. months are certain risks that growth will be too slow. “We have poor prospects for recovery speed. Even if you are very lucky, it’s hard to imagine that economic growth will accelerate to a level which would have as a country accept – 4% per year “- continues Tseplyaeva
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«We are talking about a potential increase in the level of 1.5-2%, and this is our main sadness . Recession ends sooner or later, and in its place comes the stagnation instead of growth. And stagnation, as shown by the Japanese experience can last a very long time “, – adds Tseplyaeva
The same factors that, according to the report of the bank, contributed to the growth of Russia’s GDP in June, could turn out to be one-off. and seasonal. “In some sectors could be a one-time recovery, unevenness MIC works like” – says Gurvich
In addition, experts were reminded of the strong dependence of the Russian economy on oil prices. which recently began to decline again.
on Thursday in electronic trading on the London and New York stock exchanges, world oil prices continued to decline. August futures for light WTI oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) trading at $ 42.86 per barrel. On the London ICE Futures Exchange, oil futures for Brent crude for delivery fell 0.11% in September to $ 44.82 per barrel.
At the same time, analysts predict a further decline in oil prices. Thus, an analyst at Societe Generale Wittner suggested that the level of support the price of oil is around $ 40 per barrel, but it is possible that the quotes will drop, and below this mark. A Morgan Stanley Bank experts do not exclude the fall in oil prices to $ 35. At this level it is not traded since February of this year
«Many expect that the whole second half of the year they will be below $ 50 -. I do not believe that in such circumstances, the economy will go into growth, “- concluded Gurvich
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