Confident ruble appreciation observed in recent days, was replaced in the second half of the day on Thursday, rapidly rising rates of major world currencies. The euro exchange rate exceeded the level of 80 rubles. / €, and the dollar approached a mark of 72 rubles ./$ . Recovery in demand for foreign currency contributed to the application of the ECB to maintain in the future the key rate at the current level. At the same time, according to market participants, in the ruble remains a small chance to strengthen the position, the more so count on a significant increase in oil prices is not necessary.
In the first afternoon of Thursday the currency market participants are confident to continue this for another game last week to strengthen the ruble. By 15:40 MSK dollar for the first time broke through the level of 70 rubles this year ./$ , down with respect to the closing of the medium at 1.1 rubles. However, after 16:00 the situation changed dramatically. The main session of the dollar finished at around 71.22 rubles ./$ and by 21:00 rose to the level of 71.7 rubles ./$ already 70 kopecks. above the previous day’s close. Quotes euro changed more rapidly. In the middle of the day the European currency fell below 76 rubles. / €, but in the evening session overcame the level of 80 rubles. / €, adding the day 1.8 rubles.
However, after the strengthening of the Russian currency in the previous weeks overdue correction. For four weeks the euro and the dollar fell to 10-14 rubles. and fell to the lows of the year. The last time the ruble strengthened position so rapidly in early 2015. Then, in the period from February to mid-April foreign exchange rates decreased by 18-23 rubles. “As a result of a sharp rise that occurred in recent weeks, the ruble has appeared strongly overbought relative to world currencies Therefore, reversal rates matured, lacking only reason.” – Said the chief specialist of the operations on the money market Treasury Bank “Vozrozhdenie” Mikhail Berulava.
This became possible after the announcement of the meeting of the European Central Bank results.
As expected, market participants, European controller resets its key rate, the deposit rate decreased from -0.3% to -0.4%, as well as expanded the asset purchase program with € 60 billion to € 80 billion per month. However, it was not without surprises. At a press conference following the meeting ECB President Mario Draghi said that in the current environment does not see any reason for further rate cuts in the euro zone. The application of the ECB was perceived by market participants as a signal that further rate cuts can not wait. “As a consequence, there will be less incentive to buy riskier assets such as emerging-market currencies and the ruble,” – said the head of the management of market research and analytics Rosbank Yuri Tulinov.
A similar response was observed in December of last year, while the ECB’s decision not to change the monetary policy was seen as a “final” chord its mitigation, the deputy director of the center of macroeconomic forecasting and investment strategy BIN Natalia Shilov. “Market expectations of lives, and therefore buy on rumor and sell on the fact”, – said Mrs. Shilova.
In such circumstances, market participants do not rule out a temporary stabilization of the ruble, although doubts about the continuation of the trend of the last month. “We continue to believe in the attainability of the mark 65 rubles ./$ , which will contribute to a further increase in oil prices and the global softness actions of the Central Bank, but market volatility will remain high.”, – Says Yuri Tulinov. However, the prospects for strengthening will be limited. Especially since, according to Mrs. Shilova, in terms of profitability in the US shale oil production at the level of $ 45-50 per barrel prospects of a serious recovery of oil prices from current levels a bit.
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