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The estimated limit of fiscal sustainability is $ 40 per barrel Urals
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the baseline scenario of the project macroeconomic forecast Ministry of Economy, on the basis of which the government will rule the budget 2016 and to take anti-crisis plan for the year, calculated based on the Urals price of $ 40 per barrel. He suggests the federal budget deficit to 5.1% of GDP, the privatization of 0.9 trillion rubles., a strengthening of the ruble, the continuation of recession in industry and the economy in general, the preservation of the order of 1.5 trillion rubles. in the Reserve Fund with the unsealing of the national welfare Fund (NWF). in 2017, the persistence of low oil prices will cause the already inevitable tax increases, primarily oil. For the price of oil at $ 25 per barrel, in which the Ministry of Economy has calculated a conservative scenario, a balanced budget strategy, apparently, there is no
.
At the disposal of "b" were calculations the Ministry of Economy on the forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, which were used in the discussion of anti-crisis White house plan (its last version of yesterday has been prepared for submission to the government - see the text on the same lane.) and in the preparation of amendments to the current budget of 2016 that are expected to appear in the State Duma in April 2016. The calculations also include the final proposal the Ministry of Finance on current balancing the budget. Recall the anti-crisis plan of the structure is such that part of the funding of the items to be detected the Ministry of Finance in budget execution - in the calculation of the Ministry of Economy stated on what money can count the government when the average Urals price of $ 40 per barrel (the January price, we recall, was about $ 28 per barrel). For the same price of Urals and calculated baseline forecast the Ministry of Economy
.
Option budget projections for the $ 25 per barrel ( "conservative scenario" the Ministry of Economy of the project) is not ready. Economic catastrophe at this price agency Alexei Ulyukayev does not expect, however, that the forecast of the problem is obvious: at $ 25 per barrel, the budget deficit-2016 will be substantially greater than 5.1% of GDP (according to rough calculations, "b", about 6-7% of GDP ). In this situation, forced procyclical measures to further reduce government spending and revenue byudzhetozavisimyh general population further reinforce the decline of GDP, the Ministry of Economy calculations, apparently, are not fully reflected
. The basic version of the Ministry of Economy forecast to expect in 2016 the decline in GDP by 0.8%, the fall in industrial output by 0.3%, inflation in the range of 8-8.5%. In general, oil at $ 40 per barrel should bring some stabilization of the rate of economic decline, but certainly not "bounce". Investments in this scenario, will fall in 2016 to 6% (in 2015 - 8.4%), the volume of services to the population will decrease by 1.5% (in 2015 - 2.1%), real wages - by 3, 5% (after 9.5% in 2015), real disposable income will fall at the same rate of 3.9% per year (in 2015, 4%). Retail turnover nearly stabilized - forecast fall in 2016 of 2.9% as against 10% of 2015, labor productivity does not change
The situation is under $ 25 per barrel of Urals. slightly worse. Inflation will be slightly higher (8.8-9.2% range). Investments in 2016 in this scenario, will fall only slightly slower than in 2015 (6.7% against 8.4% in 2015), as well as retail trade turnover (5.9%). In services, the fall will increase to 3.1%, the industry will cut production by 1.1%. The greatest way to suffer in this scenario the real disposable incomes of the population - the rate of increase falling to 4.7%, with the rate of decline in real wages will be reduced to 4.8% per annum: obviously, we are talking about the future collapse of income entrepreneurs and investors
.
However, the most interesting calculations of the Ministry of Economy, according to which in the conservative scenario ($ 25 per barrel of Urals), labor productivity in Russia will decrease by 1.9%. From this it follows that it was $ 40 per barrel at the current exchange rate policy of the Central Bank may at least kakie-to benefit from the devaluation of the Russian industry - at the current price of oil to talk about the adaptation of the economy to the course and the new benefits of Russia as an exporter of non-primary goods is not possible.
the current rate of the ruble to the dollar Economy Ministry considers undervalued: in the base forecast of the average annual rate will be 68.2 rubles ./$ (ie $ 40 per barrel, with a monotonic increase oil ruble strengthened by the end of the year to $ 66-67 rubles ./$ ), in the conservative - 75.7 rubles ./$ (ie be slightly strengthened, even with some decrease in oil prices). . However, this stability is clearly a temporary
Ministry of Economy Calculations on the balance of payments in the conservative scenario, given a decline in imports by another 14.8%, and cash volume of exports by 35% (physical volumes even at $ 25 per barrel, according to these forecasts is not reduced by more than 0.6%, and at $ 40 per barrel will rise by 0.9%) - and point to the triple reduction of the current account (from $ 65.8 billion in 2015 to $ 22 billion in 2016)
.
in the presence of large international reserves of the Central Bank of a further reduction of the current account in 2017 should not cause new strong crash course but reset this indicator faces strong volatility of the ruble in a year and increases the risks of change of exchange rate of the Central Bank policy
.
however, the Ministry of Economy calculations based on the Ministry of Finance show that the problem of 2017 is clearly more and more significant than the issue of 2016, and $ 40 per barrel is decided on the procedure more complicated than it is now - if not solved. The budget deficit at $ 40 per barrel will be, according to calculations the Ministry of Economy, 3.9 trillion rubles, or 5.1% of GDP -. the expected federal budget revenue was 12.1 trillion rubles. A preliminary decision on the deficit coverage taken at the White House last week for option $ 40 per barrel, is as follows. From the Reserve Fund, which is now at current exchange rates of the order of 3.7 trillion rubles., In 2016 will be spent 2.1 trillion (respectively, 1.5-1.6 trillion rubles. Remain). Another 873 billion rubles. should in 2016 to bring the "big" privatization (excluding the planned privatization of 33 billion rubles.). It should be noted, perform this rate is impossible without the sale of state-owned "Rosneft" shares. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said on Saturday that the government may be willing to issue debt secured by revenues from future privatization, which, however, does not change the picture fundamentally, and giving the White House a few more months to wait for better conditions. Note the design increases the net placement of public debt in 2016 with the planned 300 billion rubles. to 407 billion rubles
.
Reducing the cost of more than ten percent cuts already announced (.. 513 billion rubles), the Finance Ministry is also able to: 200 billion rubles. It proposed to reduce the cost of the state program of armaments for 105 billion rub.- not disclosed in the course of "tactical action" on the proposals of the department. The growth dividend payout rate of state companies from 25% to 50%, as well as payment of "Transneft" IFRS dividends will budget 175 billion rubles., VAT collection to grow by another 73 billion rubles. However, a decline from $ 50 planned in oil prices to $ 40 requires the budget to implement the new anti-crisis plan costs by 207 billion rubles., Cover unplanned deficit of the Pension fund an additional 110 billion rubles. (And other structures on the 33 billion rubles.)
.The dry residue of anti-crisis budget planning is as follows. With oil at $ 40 per barrel, the White House reduces costs by about 0.7 trillion of assets sold at market to 0.9 trillion and holds 0.1 trillion rubles. more than planned. No dopindeksatsy pensions or scale to stimulate economic growth or recapitalization of the bank, nor cover any major problems of the banking system in 2016. The budget can not afford. But to say that we are talking about one year of difficulties, it is impossible. If similar parameters of the course and $ 40 per barrel in 2017. The Ministry of Finance will have to cover the deficit by about the same 3-3.5 trillion rubles. in the presence in the Reserve Fund total 1.5 trillion rub.- privatization 2 trillion rubles. or net placement of public debt to 3-3.5 trillion rubles. 2017 is difficult to
.
However, with oil at $ 25 a barrel a similar strategy is not working even more evident: budget deficit of 6-7% of GDP for two years not covered not only the Reserve Fund, and the National Welfare Fund. It should be noted, in 2016, according to the anti-crisis plan of the White House, the National Welfare Fund will be printed in favor of Railways for the symbolic sum of 39 billion rubles. Obviously, without spending the NWF in 2017 when the price of oil even saving of $ 40 per barrel of Urals government can not. Perhaps that is why the Ministry of Finance has plans to increase taxation of the oil industry in 2017 (see page 1..)
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| - Oilers put to deduct |
| - The average price of Urals oil in January decreased by 38% |
| - «Gazprom» started testing budget for oil in the $ 25-20 per barrel |
 
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