Photo: REUTERS / Toru Hanai
The global oil industry is experiencing one of the worst crises in modern history, said the London forum International Petroleum Week President NK “Rosneft” Igor Sechin. But there is good news – a way out of the crisis is not far off: the demand for oil will grow, and the repetition of shale boom in the US is not going to happen, he said
– In view of the multiple of the increased unit operating and capital costs present. price, perhaps as low as 1973, – says Igor Sechin. – With special urgency confirmed our thesis about the gap between the financial oil market instruments, which, in fact, determine the prices and specifications of the real development of the industry
Moreover, continued Igor Sechin, the past year was marked by “. price war “: the financial market players began to play hard,” a fall “, and many think tanks” helpfully “pointed out the market at increasingly low price points, the head of” Rosneft “. As a result of these “players” of falling investment in the oil industry were able to win the order of $ 250-300 billion, assessed Igor Sechin
However, in the near future is expected to reverse the trend -. To improve the world prices, according to a top manager, due to the growth in demand in China, India and some Asian and African countries. But if the last time, this increase was covered by the explosive growth of oil shale production in the US in 2013-2014, now do not need to fear – the same explosive growth in production, as a couple of years ago, did not have to wait, according to Igor Sechin
– The notion that oil shale production in the US will be “automatic and only” the price situation the regulator, have been greatly exaggerated. In 2015, to a greater extent the behavior of a number of OPEC countries has become such a “regulator”, unfortunately, with a negative sign, – he said. – The US Energy Information Administration Energy Ministry expects that in the future in all realistic scenarios of shale oil in the United States in the long term will be reduced, despite the expected rise in prices. Under no reasonable hypotheses production in the United States can not repeat jump in 2012-2014.
Not less important role in increasing the price of oil will also play the current decline in oil investment. According to estimates by Igor Sechin, now an annual rate of daily average production decline at existing fields in the world is estimated at 3 million barrels / day, in particular, is experiencing decline in the production of one of the largest producers -. Saudi Arabia. By 2025 it is estimated the head of “Rosneft”, on reducing production and low prices could lose up to $ 2-2.5 trillion. According to the head of the company, the observed decline in investment could lead to an increase in the rate of depletion of existing fields.
Not so much danger as it draws financial speculators and their affiliated think tanks, for the market is the lifting of sanctions with Iran. In the baseline scenario of his government at the expense of existing or mothballed capacity, oil production in Iran may be increased in 2020 by 43%, to 4.5 million barrels / day, an optimistic -.. Exceed 5 million barrels / day, and by 2025 -th – and 6 million barrels / day.. However, according to the Ministry of Oil of Iran, for the oil and gas industry in the country is required to attract about $ 30 billion of investment by 2018, and at a greater time horizon – from $ 180 to 220 billion, says Igor Sechin
These and other factors, says the head of “Rosneft”, suggest that. growth of oil supply in the period up to 2020 will slow down somewhat, and while maintaining sufficiently low world average production growth of oil prices during this period, most likely, will not exceed 1 million bbl. / day, and will increase the demand for 1,3-1 5% per year.
at the moment the excess of supply over demand of 1.5-1.7 million bbl. / d, he said.
– Thus, by the end of 2016 the imbalance of demand and supply of oil could be significantly reduced by the end of 2017 even possible occurrence of the situation on the market shortage of supply of crude oil (0.7 million barrels / day.), which, however can offset the decline in commercial oil reserves, accumulated in recent years, – says Igor Sechin
The international community was at a crossroads -. come to the inevitable depletion of resources through the balance of producers, the deficit or the “sensible risks exit policy at reasonable price levels, “he said. According to Igor Sechin, Russian oil companies are in a good position, as production costs in Russia – one of the lowest in the world, for example, the cost of oil production in “Rosneft” is $ 2.7-2.8 per barrel
If the trend to an increase in demand and rectify the imbalance of supply and demand will continue production of the Russian oil industry in general and in the company “Rosneft” in particular, can grow, says a top manager. In addition, he added, in the next few years is expected to increase not only in world prices, but also the competence of Russian oil companies in terms of oilfield
-. The market will inevitably stabilized and has good prospects for further growth, but of its members depends on how quickly and how well it does, – he concluded
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