The head of “Rosneft” Igor Sechin at the London Forum IP Week said that the privatization should be carried out only with the company of state-owned price of $ 100 per barrel. However, he added that the issue of privatization of “more government”, and the management of the company will fulfill all conditions
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The issue of privatization of 19.5% of “Rosneft” from the state-owned stake, which amounts to 69.5%, has been discussed for several years. “Rosneft” is included in the list of state-owned assets to be privatized in 2016. Finance Minister Anton Siluanov as early as mid-January, said that as the first candidate for the privatization of his agency considers it «Rosneft».
Igor Sechin said that the issue of privatization of “more government”, and the management of the company will perform all conditions.
prematurity sale of shares of “Rosneft” and said the head of the British BP, Robert Dudley (BP owns 19.75% of the Russian company). This Dudley said that he did not expect the growth of oil prices to $ 100 per barrel.
Earlier “Rosneftegas”, through which the state owns 69.5% of “Rosneft”, spoke about the need for privatization of state-owned part of the price not less than the price of the transaction with BP in 2013 ($ 8.12 per share). Now the paper of “Rosneft” on the London Stock Exchange traded at $ 3.3. This is due to the drop in oil prices, which since mid-2014 has fallen in price from $ 110 per barrel to $ 30-31 in the last days
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19,5% «Rosneft” at current prices are about $ 6.84 billion (about 540.15 billion rubles at the current rate). What is however satisfied Siluanov, he said, the Russian government expects to get in “Rosneft” budget from the privatization of just 500-550 billion rubles.
According to one of the minority shareholders’ Rosneft “, at a price of $ 100 per barrel, the state-owned shares will be traded for about $ 10 apiece. Thus, 19.5% are already cost about $ 20.66 billion.
Alexander Suslin of the Economic Expert Group, said that the budget is definitely needed as soon as possible. According to the EEG estimates, the average price of a barrel to $ 40, the lack of budget in 2016 will amount to 3.2 trillion rubles (3.8% of GDP). And at a price of $ 30 per barrel will increase the budget deficit is already up to 5 trillion rubles (6.1% of GDP)
But Suslin notes that there is little wait for a good price -. You need to find a buyer who agrees to invest in Russian strategic asset
«it is difficult to say who it may be, in addition to management itself,” Rosneft “-. said the expert.
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Igor Sechin, by the way, owns 0 , 1273% of the share capital of the company (data from the website of “Rosneft” at the end of 2015). The exchange value of this package today is about $ 44.65 million. As previously reported by the media, one of the ways of privatization lies in the fact that the shares bought its managers. Also, as reported with reference to Forbes sources, “Rosneft” securities interested “Surgutneftegaz” and personally its head Vladimir Bogdanov.
In any case, the price of $ 100 per barrel in the near future, to put it mildly, unrealistic . Himself Igor Sechin pointed out that now the oil quotes are at a minimum since 1973.
«I must admit that we underestimated the fact that market financial participants are not aware of restrictions in dealing with its purely financial objectives and are ready test all price levels – $ 27 in January, for example, and up to $ 10 per barrel “, – said Sechin. He also noted that it is the financial players have become the main beneficiaries of the current crisis. And they still have not redirected the released as a result of falling investment in the oil sector of $ 250-300 billion in other sectors.
At the same time, according to the head of “Rosneft”, decisions are often made at prices robots in the currency markets .
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«Financial appliances today is that decisions are often made by robots on the trading floors, impersonal and control of the program to respond to short-term changes such as changing the situation in the course of trading or information about the movement of oil, “- said Sechin.
The head of “Rosneft” stated that the need to unite the oil producers (with the participation of consumers) that their coordinated actions to protect the market from the impact of price shocks. “Unlike OPEC have such an association should be more precise function, more transparent decision-making mechanisms, a wider range of means to implement the goals, capabilities and price risk hedging instruments, trading operations, intervention in the stock, the establishment of regional trade areas,” – said . Sechin
Partner Rusenergy Michael Krutikhin said that the price of oil is determined still not financial players (in fact – the speculators), and the fundamental factors in the first place, demand balance and supply in the world oil market. By the way, Sechin in his speech pointed out that now the prevalence of supply over demand of 1.5-1.7 million barrels per day, which roughly corresponds to the excess of its own OPEC quota.
Krutikhin indicates that in the current situation when each manufacturer tries to keep its market share, no one will agree to reduce the volume of production to support prices, as the niche will be immediately occupied by competitors
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«In the battle of the volume and price of a barrel of won amounts,” – indicates Krutikhin. – Therefore, only today the driver who could push oil prices up, may be a conflict either in the region, which produces a lot of oil, or where there are important ways to oil tankers (eg Persian Gulf) »
However, the expectations of the experts very different. The Russian anti-crisis plan, for example, laid in the price range of $ 20-40 per barrel. The same “Rosneft” said that her level is laid in the budget-2016 to $ 45. At Standard Chartered Bank published its forecast of analysts last week, according to which the price of a barrel this year may rise to $ 70-75. The head of the head of commodity markets Experts Goldman Sachs Jeff Curry in an interview with Bloomberg said that the barrel may fall and below $ 20. Morgan Stanley lowered the forecast for the end of 2016 from $ 59 to $ 29 per barrel.
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