The index of economic sentiment (IEN), ranked the HSE Center for market research, in the fourth quarter of 2015 fell to 83.7 points – its lowest level in six years, according to a fresh survey center. The index value of 100 corresponds to a normal mood in the enterprise environment, significantly lower than 100 – ‘depressive crisis “, say the authors of the review. IEN 100 remains below last year and a half.
The entrepreneurs involved in the survey, which is conducted on the basis of the study, noted the problem of insufficient demand and high economic uncertainty, lack of funding, high taxes. The authors also note that at the end of last year, entrepreneurs have begun to reduce the number of employees in their companies. “Apparently, during the optimization of costs through wage cuts, unpaid leave of administrative and other such maneuvers are not related to a real reduction in staff was” – they wrote. According to the Federal State Statistics Service (published January 25), the number of unemployed in Russia in 2015 increased by 7,4%.
The index of economic sentiment It includes 12 indicators of several sectors of the economy. For the industry is the current level of demand, inventory levels in warehouses and expected changes in output; Construction – the level of the order book and expected changes in the number of employees; retail – current and expected changes in the economic situation of companies and the level of their stocks; for services – current and expected changes in demand and the economic situation of the organizations. The total also includes the index of consumer confidence.
the HSE based its assessment on data collected from interviews of Rosstat. Rosstat conducts among them 20 thousand. Director: 3,5 thousand. Representatives of industry, 6.6 thousand. Construction firms, 4 th. Of retail trade, 5.6 thousand. Companies in the service sector. In addition, the Office interrogates 5 thousand. Adult Russians to assess consumer confidence of the population.
Gone minus
In the negative field turned all the individual indices of industries that are IEN (negative value corresponds to an unfavorable climate in the industry). The consumer confidence index fell by 2 percentage points, to minus 26%, “one of the lowest in the last six years.” 48% of respondents reported a decline in personal wealth in 2015, with 31% of respondents expect deterioration of his in 2016. About 40% “do not see the prospects of the Russian economy in 2016,” 47% “hope for the preservation of the situation at the level of 2015″. Among European countries, conducting consumer surveys comparable to the methodology of Rosstat, Russian largest consumer confidence index ranks third from the end of the ranking. Later in this rating – only Greece and Bulgaria, experts say.
For the first time since 1999 in negative territory – down to minus 2% – the index sank to retailers, even the anti-record breaking 2009. The authors note that “recorded for the year a sharp collapse dynamics of key operational financial and economic performance of organizations broke the most pessimistic forecasts received from respondents in the third quarter».
53% of respondents say that the main negative factor for them is a shortage of effective demand. During 2015, according to Rosstat, real disposable income fell by 4%, real wages – by 9.5%. Retail trade turnover in 2015 decreased by 10% in the fourth quarter decline in annual terms amounted to 13.5%, it follows from the official statistics. Indicators of the retail sector in 2015 were the worst in more than a decade of business surveys Economics. “In 2009, the business had an impressive support of the consumer market and a fairly wide range of available loan packages, which by the end of 2010 brought trade from the peak of the crisis. At present, this situation is almost incredible “- sums up the experts of the University.
The record low was also the HSE index for the services sector: it fell from the previous quarter by 3 percentage points to minus 9%. Moreover, the forecasts of the business in this area in the first quarter of 2016 – the most pessimistic for the entire observation period. The authors of the report note that “the actual results are traditionally worse than hoped for entrepreneurs in the formation of predictions.” Some services were hit particularly hard. In particular, the closure of tourism hit the popular destinations – Turkey and Egypt. But the crisis won pawn any other kind of economic activity in the past year showed that growth of activity.
Industry and construction
The indices in industry and construction not reduced in contrast to the other components of the IEN sectors – construction index even grew by 1 point. The industry, according to director of the Center for market research Ostapkovicha George, “saved from deeper turmoil crisis funding from the Government of the Russian Federation.” Another issue that both indices remain in negative territory, indicating stagnation in the two sectors.
According to Rosstat, in the fourth quarter of 2015. Industrial production declined in annual terms by 3.9%. As a result, the drop was 3.4%. At the same time mining in comparison with the year 2014 increased slightly – by 0.3%, electricity, gas and water supply decreased by 1.6% (in the fourth quarter – by 4.5% in annual terms). “The role of the apparent underdog and entrepreneurial mood, and negative growth of production retains the manufacturing industry,” – said in the review of the HSE. In the manufacturing industry decline in production in annual terms in the fourth quarter amounted to 5.4% for the year – 5.8% (Rosstat).
At 4.4%, according to Rosstat, in the fourth quarter of 2015 , the decreased production in the construction sector. For the whole 2015 it fell by 7%. At the same time for the construction industry in addition to the general problems that mark the entrepreneurs in all sectors of the economy, characterized by a more specific difficulties, such as shortage of land and the complexity of their production, as well as “the existence of administrative barriers put up by officials of different levels.” “Dealing with Construction Permits”, experts School of Economics, is part of the ten indicators analyzed in the framework of the rating Doing Business, compiled annually by the World Bank. “It is the indicator by which we occupied 119th place in the world, did not give Russia to enter the top fifty ranking. Our nearest neighbors with a slightly better rating are such “building giants”, such as Bangladesh, Gambia, Comoros and the Dominican Republic, but we went around the country with almost the worst rating – Republic of the Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, Seychelles and Djibouti, “- he said the HSE report.
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