The financial authorities to return to the regime of the recommendations of the exporters to sell foreign currency earnings for the stabilization of the ruble. This RBC said a government source. He says that these actions could be discussed at a meeting of the government with the participation of the head of the Central Bank.
Of such plans have also heard the banker, who told the staff of the Central Bank. Source close to the Central Bank, said that the Central Bank has previously provided methodological and analytical support to exporters. Exporters told RBC that continue to communicate with the regulator on the issue. Interlocutor in one of the state-owned banks said that the sale of foreign currency earnings is to be agreed heads of departments of the Central Bank and export companies.
The voluntary sale
«In the past, the government did is in the manual mode, the mechanism is now successfully worked out, so the intervention of government officials are unlikely to be required. All perfectly understand everything, so the central bank itself will work this issue “, – said the source RBK government. He stressed that the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings is not discussed. “I do not need any regulations and securities. Companies and banks understand the regulator in its efforts to support the market, “- he added.
A source close to the government, says the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina would cancel his visit to Davos to take a decision on interaction with exporters . Earlier it was reported that Nabiullina canceled his visit to Davos because of the volatility in the foreign exchange market. “It may be necessary to intervene in the situation”, – said RBC’s source in the Central Bank.
The press service of the Central Bank did not respond to a request to RBC.
informal requirement for private companies to sell foreign exchange earnings appeared on the market in December 2014, when in a single day, 16 December, the dollar has updated the historical maximum, exceeded 80 rubles., while the euro – for 100 rubles. The exchange started to panic, to calm that had to exporters. “Recommendations of the government to sell the currency, and not to make hasty sharp movements in the market late last year received not only state-owned companies, but also large private exporters,” – says the manager of one of the exporting companies. President Vladimir Putin personally telephoned oil. In addition, after the panic was on December 16 issued a directive prescribing state companies lead to 1 March 2015 its net foreign exchange position to the level of October 1, 2014. In December, this requirement received “Gazprom”, “Rosneft”, “Zarubezhneft”, “ALROSA” and software “Crystal».
The manager of a major oil company on condition of anonymity said, that unlike the situation in 2014 in this year from the Government and the Central Bank has not yet been no orders or recommendations of the sale of foreign currency earnings. “Now it is just the usual exchange of information on the volume and timing of the sale and exchange. But companies and so prefer to behave responsibly and sell currency evenly throughout the month “- he said.
« As an exporter, we regularly sell substantial amounts of foreign exchange earnings, including funding the ruble cost of operations. Recommendations on enhancing sales, we did not get, “- said a representative of NLMK.
Trader of one of the state bank told RBC that the Central Bank still monitors foreign exchange transactions of market participants on the Moscow stock exchange. According to him, in recent days, the regulator asks for information on daily transactions on the foreign exchange market. “Of course, we deal in the interests of our customers, but if large volumes, the Central Bank requests to disclose on whose behalf they are held,” – said a trader.
President’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, said today that The central bank rather closely monitoring the situation and analyzes it. “In this case there is no reason to believe that the Central Bank no scripts that are designed to avoid actually landslide phenomena”, – assured the press secretary of the president.
currency proceeds of exporters in numbers
The $ 300 billion Russian President Vladimir Putin appreciated currency reserves of Russian export companies at the annual press conference 18
December 2014
About $ 1 billion a day – for such a sum, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev ordered the five state-owned companies (“Gazprom”, “Rosneft” ALROSA “Zarubezhneft” and producer of diamonds at “Crystal”), to sell foreign currency revenues December 17, 2014, when there was a peak of devaluation of the ruble, the newspaper “Kommersant»
The average 60% of foreign exchange earnings held on the balance of exporters in 2015, was considered in Sberbank CIB. In 2014 the figure was 46%
$ 1,96 billion made recent foreign exchange intervention of the Central Bank (for the sale of currency ) December 16, 2014
$ 1,5 billion per month sells “Surgutneftegaz”, he said in the summer of 2015 CEO company Vladimir Bogdanov. “Surgutneftegas” Russian companies among the biggest holder of foreign exchange reserves
1,89 trillion rubles. was on the deposits of “Surgutneftegaz “June 30, 2015, are in dollars – 1.87 trillion rubles. ($ 33.7 billion at the exchange rate as of June 30)
$ 368,4 billion international reserves of the Central Bank amounted to January 1, 2016
5,88 trillion rubles. , according to preliminary estimates, amounted to oil and gas revenues of the budget in 2015 outlook for 2016 – 6.05 trillion rubles.
The $ 47.5 billion estimated the total debt ” Rosneft “September 30, 2015 (89% of them – in the currency). It is the largest figure among the Russian companies-exporters. In the accounts of the company was $ 23 billion
With the $ 8,5 billion to $ 7 billion will be cut planned for 2016 investment of LUKOIL, the head of the company Vagit Alekperov
The 480 billion rubles. , or $ 6.2 billion, Sberbank CIB estimates the total volume of tax payments in January 2016
Source: Ministry of Finance, company data, RBC, Sberbank CIB
Currencies too little
As a another reason for the collapse of the ruble, which occurred in the Thursday, January 21, 2016, at the Moscow Stock Exchange, traders call a limited supply of dollars and euros on the market. According to the trader’s “discovery” of Sergei Fishgoyta, the situation on the market in the morning was close to panic, the players tried to hold dollars and euros. Analysts Sberbank CIB led by Tom Levinson in his review wrote that exporters have taken a wait and the market was in a situation where an offer by the sellers of the Russian currency is not balanced bids to buy it.
Chief Economist of ING Bank of Russia and the CIS Dmitry Polevoy said that the Central Bank may try to stabilize the situation, to strengthen the control over the actions of exporters, state-owned companies and a large Russian companies in the foreign exchange market. “I think that now the regulator closely monitors the behavior of the big banks and companies. And the Central Bank is ready to these measures, “- said the expert.
« The Russian tax system supports the oil exporters in conditions of low oil prices, but despite that, the Russian oil and gas producers hold on the balance of the conversion significant sums in foreign currency because of growing concerns about the devaluation “- notes the analyst of Sberbank CIB Iskander Lutsk review” Sales of currency by exporters: do not expect much “, released on January 20. He expects that in January the company will keep on balance no more than 35% of revenue, which involves the sale within the next two weeks to exchange $ 4.1 billion.
However, on January 25, companies must pay a severance tax and excise duties for December, before January 20, they had to transfer to the budget payments to the Social Insurance Fund and environmental charges, said chief economist VYGON Consulting Sergei Yezhov. “With the growing rate of the company profitable to sell currency earnings to the maximum rate as close as possible to the date of payment of tax. All taxes under Russian law, paid in rubles, and the amount of severance tax on oil for December is more than 150 billion rubles. “- Says Yezhov.
However, according to Lutsk, in the current situation, where prices Oil down, “even if the companies decide to leave on a small part of the balance of foreign exchange earnings, it is not enough to influence the exchange rate, as well as reduced income producers” indicates analyst. “As a consequence, in the future, we expect growth in demand for ruble liquidity and reduced sales volumes of currency”, – he added.
Representatives of “Rosneft” and Lukoil declined to comment, and “Severstal», Evraz Plc. MMC “Norilsk Nickel”, “Metalloinvest”, Alrosa did not respond to a request to RBC.
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