This year’s budget will not be counted 2.6 trillion rubles. income. For this reason, the Ministry of Finance swung at the holy offering to abandon the indexation of salaries to state employees and social payments. The initiative of the Ministry of Finance may be partly implemented, as frightened state employees are willing to endure the crisis, experts say.
The Ministry of Finance recorded a drop in budget revenues this year. “In February, we obtain a significant reduction of budget revenues,” – said on Tuesday, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. According to him, the reduction is already evident from the decrease in revenues from the severance tax.
Earlier, the Finance Ministry has estimated that only a reduction in the price of oil to $ 50 (the price is incorporated in the updated forecast of Ministry of Economic Development) will lead to the loss of this year’s budget to $ 3 trillion rub. In general, the Finance Ministry expects at the end of 2015 to reduce revenues of 2.6 trillion rubles. (Partial compensation for the fall of oil prices is provided by the devaluation of the ruble)
On this basis, the Finance Ministry proposes to reduce budget expenditures this year even stronger than planned reduction of 10%. “Over and above 10%, we still need 600 billion rubles. 10% reduction – is 900 billion rubles. To reach the 5 per cent in real terms reduction of budget expenditures, we need another $ 600 billion, “- said the minister.
According to the government’s anti-crisis plan, budget expenditures can be reduced by at least 5% real terms during the 2016-2018 years, in 2015 discussed a decline of 10%. Plan to reduce spending ministries and agencies are required to submit this week.
To reduce costs further by the Ministry of Finance offers not one article, and on several fronts. “We have a number of measures that need to be addressed this week and offered as amendments to the budget of 2015″, – said Siluanov.
First, it is possible to abandon the new investment projects, as well as reduce by half the funding for some existing projects. Siluanov not say what projects can be sent under the knife, but the earlier the government planned to allocate funds for the reconstruction of the BAM, Trans-Siberian Railway and the construction of Ring Road, as well as high-speed railway line from Moscow to Kazan.
But the most radical proposal to the Ministry of Finance on the economy government spending is the idea out of the indexation of salaries to state employees and social payments.
In the budget for 2015, adopted last year at a cost of $ 96 per oil barrel was provided for the indexation of wages in the public sector by 5.5%. On Tuesday, Brent was trading at $ 56 per barrel.
«Finance Ministry proposes to decouple the indexation of social payments, salaries of civil servants and other categories of citizens from the predicted inflation. We believe that in a difficult period for the country, in 2015, we could skip this indexing “- the minister said.
According to the latest forecast of the Ministry, that will be typeset in an updated budget for this year, inflation for the year will amount to 12,2%.
Such proposals The Ministry of Finance did not agree with sotsblokom government, found “Times».
«Cancel indexing public sector – the personal initiative of the Minister of Finance Siluanova. The government has not discussed this issue, “- said a spokesman for Deputy Prime Minister Olga Golodets Alexei Levchenko.
« State employees – is the electoral support of power and authority they do not offend “, – says Alexei Makarkin, vice president Center for Political Technologies.
«to state voting power, support and depend on it. And it seems, at first glance, to argue with them do not want to, but on the other hand, state employees are now afraid. He is afraid of color revolution, Obama would be in Kiev or in Tripoli, “- says the analyst.
So now ready for budget-spending cuts, ready to suffer. “Let not raise wages, but pay it on time and my house will not come round, at this budget-logic”, – says Makarkin.
If you do not increase the debt burden, in terms of sanctions difficult to do, and not spend the Reserve Fund, it is necessary to reduce costs, I’m sure the chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov BCS.
«Yes, it will cause dissatisfaction. But if the government will be able to organize an emergency funding backbone enterprises to avoid massive layoffs, then there will not be a large spike in unemployment, the majority of the population decline in real income will be more acceptable option, “- said Tikhomirov.
He said, that
Siluanova statement can be viewed as a trial balloon – to see what will be the reaction in the society? If the reaction is violent, the indexation will be carried out, but significantly lower than, for example, by 2%.
However, some experts believe that with indexation in the end everything will be okay. “I admit that as a result of this proposal will not work. Likely to compete for the standard scheme: the evil Finance Ministry wants to cut spending on public sector, and a good president finally settle the situation. So maybe indexing in the end and even retain in full “, – said the head of Strategic Analysis Department FBK Igor Nikolaev.
The Kremlin is now crook fight to keep these costs, because elections are coming in State Duma. And even the indexation of 5.5%, which is now incorporated into the budget, it is extremely insufficient raise revenue that could provoke resentment.
Earlier financial unit tried to run another trial balloon – pension reform, the theme of which traditionally comes up with a new layout of the budget.
So, Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev supported the idea of raising the retirement age and considers it possible to implement it in stages for 10-15 years. For example, for future retirees were asked to set a timetable to increase pension age for six months each year.
For raising the retirement age stands and Silvanus, which offers a step by step to raise it for men and women up to 63 years from the current 60 and 55 years, respectively.
Definitely against raising the retirement age, Vladimir Putin, as he has repeatedly said in public. The president considers necessary to ensure the sustainability of the pension system.
While the government does not discuss the extension of the freeze pension savings (about 350 billion rubles) in 2016, said Tuesday Siluanov.
«It is clear that the Ministry of Labor is worried about the balance of the Pension Fund, and ekonomblok government is worried about the availability of resources, which could be used to support the economy, “- said Siluanov. Finance Minister added that pension savings are just one of those resources.
Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev also against extending the freeze funded pension in 2016.
Note that despite the difficulties of balancing the budget the government still managed pension index: from February 1 from the federal budget – 11.4%. The government does not exclude that in the case of higher inflation indexing again. Before the crisis, pension indexed to 2-3 times a year.
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