Economic Development submitted to the government an updated macroeconomic forecast for 2015. On the basis of it, the “new reality”, which recently spoke Russian officials of all ranks, as follows: GDP decline of 3%, inflation – 12% drop in real wages – more than 9%. The price of oil at the same time put into the $ 50 per barrel.
On Saturday, the Economic Development Ministry submitted to the government updated the socio-economic outlook for Russia, based on which, the government will implement the turnaround plan, and at the same time to reduce budget expenditures by 10% (except protected items – defense and social obligations).
According to the current evaluation of the Economic Development Ministry, Russia’s GDP will decline in 2015 to 3%. Previous assessment of the Ministry, this at the beginning of December last year, was minus 0.8% (at the same power for the first time admitted that in 2015 Russia still slide into a recession). Thus, a new assessment MER became closer to a consensus on the market (rating agencies “Big Three” and the international financial institutions – the IMF, World Bank, EBRD – waiting for the fall of the Russian GDP to 3-5.5% in 2015). Recall that in the crisis year of 2009, Russia’s economy shrank by 7,8%.
The revised macroeconomic forecast for 2015 was compiled based on the price of oil at $ 50 a barrel. “Although this estimate may seem excessively conservative. The consensus forecast of $ 10 higher, “- said the head of the Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev.
The experts are pleased that the government finally” removed rose-colored glasses “(the budget for 2015, signed by President Vladimir Putin in early December, formed on the basis of oil price of $ 96 per barrel and the exchange rate of 37.5 rubles. per dollar). “It is good that the government is based on a conservative estimate now given the large uncertainties ahead,” – said BCS analyst Vladimir Tikhomirov.
«Anyone who follows the quotes, sees Urals oil costs about $ 47 per barrel. We clearly are in a situation protracted price war that will not end for the two coming weeks. It is therefore reasonable to assume that many months in 2015 we live in a rather low oil prices, “- says chief economist at Sberbank Yulia Tseplyaeva.
According to her, low oil prices as a result give a deeper downturn in the economy, which will be characterized by the shortfall of budget revenues, a weaker ruble, as well as reduction in consumption ” due to inability to expectations of growth of salaries in nominal terms ».
In mid-January, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov estimated that at an oil price of $ 50 per barrel, the budget will lose about 3 trillion rubles. 2015.
According to the Ministry of Economic Development, consumer demand will be reduced based on a significant reduction in real wages and real incomes. “Consumer demand is in the negative values: the decline and real wages – more than 9%, and the real incomes of the population – more than 6%,” – said Ulyukayev.
“Last year, we have seen excessive consumption, especially of durable goods. Was a large monetary instability and high inflation, because of what people “perepotrebilo.” It is obvious that this year’s consumption in any case should shrink, “- said the chief economist at Alfa Bank, Natalia Orlova.
By the way, the inflation rate, as calculated by the MED, this year will accelerate to 12% compared to 11.4% last year, when prices for the first time since the crisis in 2008 has returned to double-digit (then it was 13.3%). “Due to the acceleration of inflation the central bank will not be able to significantly reduce its key interest rate, as a formal bid must be higher than the rate of inflation”, – said Tikhomirov. On Friday, the Central Bank lowered the rate from 17 to 15%.
«The reasons for the decrease there are two. The first – the Central Bank sent a signal that the situation in the currency market is more or less stabilized, and hence the need for super-high rate of no. Second – it was a reaction to the political pressure exerted on the Central Bank of the parliament, government and the Kremlin: the economy slips into recession, so it is logical that the regulator wants easing of monetary policy to support the economy “, – says economist.
According to Tikhomirov, latest rate cut still should be considered more as a symbolic gesture, “because the stakes and 17%, and 15% remain unaffordable for most companies».
No comments:
Post a Comment