Igor Nikolaev, director of FBK Strategic Analysis Department:
– Today, the ruble may continue to weaken, but it is unlikely it will be so severe as yesterday. Within 50 kopecks – one ruble depreciation of the national currency against the dollar and the euro is expected.
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Over the past few days, the ruble podrasteryal its former self, his course quite seriously dipped. This again has given anxious expectations of market participants. At the same time Russian national currency still has room to weaken.
However, in reality the ruble is unlikely to expect a collapse in the same our notorious August. At least these figures, in December 2014, we do not see. But quite a strong decline can be still 64-65 rubles to the dollar in August, it is quite expected me figure. The reasons are many, and they are not called again – this oil, Greece, China and Russia are not the best macroeconomic performance in Russia, and the upcoming Fed rate hike, even autumn.
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In the autumn, by the way, the situation may continue easing, since many factors at markets and began to act out in the summer, but autumn is not fully recoup. Plus political issues, such as those associated with the publication of data on the collapse of the Malaysian Boeing over Ukraine. But in this situation, to predict what will be the rate of the ruble in 2-3 months, is now impossible.
Yesterday, the ruble weakened against both the dollar and the euro. And in both cases, the rate has changed by more than 2 percent by updating the four-month high. The reason was again oil, but not only. The main reason for the fall of the ruble – in coincidence in time a number of negative factors, starting with the debt problems of Greece and ending with the collapse on Monday the Chinese stock market just 8.5 percent. The cost of “black gold” is now in the area of the April lows and may be closer to the March values near 52 dollars a barrel.
The official exchange rate of the dollar today, July 29 is 60.22 rubles per unit of US currency ( plus 1 ruble 44 kopecks). For one euro is 66.62 rubles (plus 1 ruble 54 kopecks).
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