According to analysts of the Center for Macroeconomic Research of Sberbank, the fall of the ruble may exceed the natural rate. However, not all experts agree with this outlook
The Russian foreign exchange market at the end of the year can expect new shock, this is the forecast of analysts Center for Macroeconomic Research Sberbank. In their view, in the fourth quarter volatility of the euro-dollar will grow strongly. The fall of the ruble may exceed the natural rate of decline due to falling oil prices. In this oil next year will not be able to recover to $ 65 per barrel, as expected.
As experts point out, to the low oil prices and the foreign exchange market shocks lead external factors, including the situation around Greece Iran, slowing growth in China.
We asked the experts: Do you agree with the forecast of analysts?
The head of operations in the money and foreign exchange markets the Bank “Metallinvest” Sergey Romanchuk recalled another Negative factors.
Sergei Romanchuk
head of operations in the money and foreign exchange markets Metallinvestbank
Analysts Savings Bank also recalls that in the near future the US Federal Reserve may raise interest rates, which is traditionally a negative effect on oil prices, and, of course, the oil market in the foreseeable future will affect the lifting of sanctions with Iran. How serious is the impact of the above factors, said the deputy director of analytical department of the IG “Alpari” Daria Zhelannova.
Daria Zhelannova
the deputy director of analytical department of the IG” Alpari »
Analysts Savings Bank also believes that inflation will decline more slowly than in the baseline scenario, and real wages and incomes will fall next year. Out of the recession, according to economists, is postponed until 2017.
Meanwhile, Alfa-Bank Russia’s economy bottomed. Russian economy has reached the bottom, according to a survey of the Center for Macroeconomic Research at Alfa Bank.
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