dollar for the first time since April, higher than 58 rubles. Since early July, the ruble fell by 3% against the euro and 4% against the US dollar. On the Russian currency puts pressure falling oil prices, statistics from China and expectations the US Federal Reserve rate hike in the near future.
After a substantial strengthening in May, when the Russian ruble to the US dollar was trading at less than 50 rubles ., the rate of the Russian currency re-approached the level of 60 rubles.
At the opening of trading on the Moscow stock exchange on Friday, the dollar exchange rate exceeded the psychological threshold of 58 rubles.
The highest point which reaches the dollar / ruble with the expectation of tomorrow during trading on Friday stood at 58.47 rubles., according to the Exchange. The euro also strengthened against the ruble: the peak rate was 63.98 rubles.
By 15.00 MSK US currency retreated slightly, trading at 58.4 rubles., The euro also fell slightly – to 63.89 rubles.
Last time the dollar exceeded 58 rubles. in April this year.
The official exchange rate of the dollar against the ruble, the Central Bank of Russia for the weekend and on Monday, rose by 33.46 kopecks., to 58.0374 rub., the euro – 67 6 cop., to 63.6090 rubles., from the data of the Bank of Russia. Dual currency basket value increased compared with the index on Friday, 68 kopecks., Amounted to 60.54 rubles.
The main reason for the growth of the dollar on the Russian stock market remains cheap oil. On Friday, the price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude fell below $ 55 – to $ 54.92 per barrel (as of 12:20 MSK).
By 15:00 MSK the psychological barrier of $ 55 per barrel was again overcome: for Brent gave $ 55.07. July futures for WTI crude oil traded at $ 48.73 a barrel, according to the auction. The price of Russian Urals oil is tied to the quotations of North Sea oil. At the same time Russia’s budget for the current year been drawn up on the basis of oil price $ 50 per barrel and the dollar exchange rate of 61.5 rubles.
The last time Brent showed figures below $ 55 per barrel in April.
«It is possible that the downward movement may take up to $ 50 per barrel” – suggests analyst IC “Veles Capital” Alexander Kostjukov.
The Russian stock market opened lower on Friday quotations about this according to the auction on the Moscow stock exchange. As at 15.05 MSK the RTS index, which is calculated in the currency trading on the Moscow stock exchange at the level of 870.42 points, local minimum was fixed at 868.05 points. The MICEX index dropped to 1614.61 points from a local minimum at the level of 1605.78 points.
The leaders of the fall – shares of engineering and telecommunications companies.
Securities energy, banking, oil and gas, chemical sectors also exhibit mostly negative dynamics. Positive dynamics showed stocks of such companies as “Severstal”, “Uralkali” and “Rosneft”. The growth of quotations on them hovering around 1%.
«This Week dominant influence on the course of trading have fundamentals: Fed rate hike expectations in September and weak preliminary China PMI index for the manufacturing,
– said Mark Bradford, an analyst at FG BCS. – These figures are lower confidence in the global economic recovery and, consequently, the demand for risky assets, particularly for riskier Russian securities. ”
The fall of the ruble may continue, and this contributes to falling oil prices and expectations of a rate hike US Federal Reserve, and the approaching August – the month is traditionally considered among the Russian investors troubling time for trading. “Often, in August, a decrease in the ruble and lay the foundation for long-term decline until the end of January,” – says financial analyst FxPro Alexander Kuptsikevich.
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