Experts point out that the previous fall in oil prices and the subsequent reduction of investment in oil production have not yet led to a reduction in oil supplies to the world market. Moreover, over the past six months the volume of oil production in the OPEC countries increased by about 1.5 million barrels. per day.
In the case of lifting the sanctions against Iran and the improvement in actual civil war-torn Libya, the influx of new oil on the world market may prevent increase in prices. Then, as stated in the forecast, the recession drags on for at least three years – “is much worse than in 1986».
Recall that in 1986, the overproduction of oil has led to a sharp drop in world prices. If at the beginning of 1980 the price of a barrel reached $ 35 (about US $ 100 in terms of today’s money), then in 1986 it fell below $ 10 (a little over $ 20 at current exchange rate) and did not rise above $ 20 a few years. Countries – the oil exporters suffered serious financial losses and the Soviet Union for a sharp reduction in the inflow of petrodollars, according to some experts, was one of the reasons for the economic collapse.
«Prices for resources on which depended the budget of the Soviet Union and its foreign trade balance, stability of the consumer market, the opportunity to buy tens of millions of tons of grain per year, ability to service external debt, finance the army and defense industry, fell several times, “- wrote in his work” The Fall of the Empire “Yegor Gaidar, noting that due to the fall oil prices the country lost the opportunity to stop the problems associated with the deplorable state of its economy and maintain social stability, which provides a low level of retail prices.
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