The peninsula becomes a hostage to energy relations between Moscow and Kiev
The energy cooperation between Russia and Ukraine was threatened after fruitless negotiations on gas, which ended on Tuesday in Vienna. Kiev actually refused to buy Russian gas until the autumn that has unleashed his hands in the confrontation with the Russian Federation. New gas talks with support from the European Commission can only take place in the autumn. The loss of export earnings of “Gazprom” – only part of the damage. Much more sensitive may be a threat to Ukraine to stop supplying electricity to the Crimea. Disruption of the holiday season and the inability to secure the Crimea from Russia Ukrainian blockade can have much more serious consequences.
«Ukrenergo” is ready to turn off the electricity from the Crimea. Yesterday, the company confirmed that the schedule of July 1, the termination of power laid the peninsula. “The duty manager of the state enterprise” “Ukrenergo” informed the duty manager of the Crimean electrical system in order to ensure the fulfillment of the necessary organizational and technical measures to maintain zero schedule “, – quotes” Prime “message of the Ukrainian company. On further option to disable in “Ukrenergo” is not reported.
The Minister of Fuel and Energy of the Republic Yevgeny Demin noted that predict how events will unfold, it is impossible. “The threat of disconnection at any time there. We prepare operational mobile teams, are preparing their own generation, automatic check, ready to go mobile generating sets “- quoted Demin” Kryminform ».
Recall that Ukraine Crimea twice de-energized at the end of December 2014. December 30 last year, the Russian company “Inter RAO” and “Ukrinterenergo” signed a contract on the export of electricity from Russia to Ukraine and agreed to provide a reliable and uninterrupted power supply to the Crimea. Since then, the terms of the contracts are not violated.
Meanwhile, he Kiev on July 1, he refused to buy Russian gas. At the last on June 30 in Vienna negotiations the parties failed to agree on the price of gas in the third quarter. Russia, recall, offered Ukraine a discount of $ 40. Per 1 thousand. Cube. m, thus saving the old price of $ 247. per 1 thousand. cube. m. While Kiev expect discounts of 30% – price in this situation was to be about $ 200.
«We are surprised that Ukraine wanted a much lower price – it does not correspond to today’s market conditions,” – said the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak. “Russian proposal to the formula for calculating the price of gas is neither reasonable nor economically verified. As of this moment, we categorically offer price which is higher than the price reverse deliveries from Europe. We are well aware that the Russian gas on the eastern border should be cheaper because they do not take into account the cost of transit “- quoted by Interfax Energy Minister Volodymyr Demchishin. According to him, Kiev is ready for further discussion and looked forward to continuing discussions with the assistance of the European partners. Ukraine, recall, wishes to conclude an agreement for the entire heating season 2015/16 year.
At the same time, the Russian Ministry of Energy believes that the need for such an agreement is not extended and the price must be negotiated on a quarterly basis. According to Novak, the Russian Federation has created all necessary conditions for the injection of gas in Ukrainian underground storage (UGS). The Russian minister said that Ukraine has in the third quarter pumped into UGS another 7 billion cubic meters. meters of gas to the total reserves in the vaults reached about 19 billion cubic meters. m.
Note that the main issue for which negotiators met in Vienna, – the provision of financial assistance to Ukraine to pump gas into its underground storage facilities for safe transit to Europe. However, no concrete results have been achieved here. The European Commission (EC) expects Ukraine’s financial plan for gas before the support, said European Commission Vice-President Maros Shevchovich.
«We want to see how much gas can be sent into storage at the expense of its own production, how they plan to mobilize funds as they see the mobilization of money, which were provided by the various instruments of financial assistance. First we have to see the homework, “- said the representative of the EC. Now Shefchovich sees no risks of violation of transit. “Today we have a completely different situation than last year – we have a reverse flow, we are much better prepared,” – he said.
According to the official gas talks at a technical level may resume in August. “We will have a meeting at technical level after the summer holidays at the expert level, to be able to meet at political level in September”, – said Shefchovich on Wednesday.
While the main victims of the postponement of the negotiation looks Russian gas holding.
«This temporary waiver purchases deprive Ukraine of” Gazprom “several billion cubic meters of exports and worsen the prospects of its annual exports, the total bill – said Sberbank Investment Research analyst Valery Nesterov. – In this case, gas is cheaper than offers Russia, Kiev is now unlikely to be able to find. If you take the whole of last year, reversible gas cost even more. Recently, prices for reversal were close to the market, but not below. And, of course, $ 200., Which is expected to receive Ukraine this quarter – an unrealistic price ».
At this point, the position of “Gazprom” is justified, says Nesterov. But Ukraine is simply no money, and there is no guarantee from the EU that they have the money just settle. Therefore, Kiev is in conditions of low demand, prefer to save, including pumping gas into underground storage facilities.
«all requirements will be closed, but with the fall: the situation becomes hopeless, and prices will remain still low, and you can quickly buy more. So I do not see today any serious threat to Europe or Ukraine “, – said Nesterov. Such a demonstration of insolvency may indirectly play into the hands of Kiev and other important matters – negotiations with creditors. Recall that the International Monetary Fund continues to insist on the restructuring of the Ukrainian debt of 15.3 billion dollars. However, it is of no cancellation fees Kyiv can not agree.
The head of analytical department of the National Energy Security Foundation Alexander Pasechnik believes that recent events – the possible disruptions of electricity supply in the Crimea and Ukraine’s refusal from the purchase of gas – can talk about the deterioration of the energy cooperation between Moscow and Kiev.
«link these phenomena can be, while talking about the direct connection is probably premature,” – says Beekeeper. In this commercial for Ukraine Crimea is an attractive market, and they themselves have nowhere to redirect this energy, he said.
However, in Russia, according to the expert, by and large no leverage pressure on Ukraine to ensure uninterrupted supplies to the peninsula. In the event of a power RF will only use mobile mobile energy complexes that enable smooth power deficit risks, as well as a plan to boost power autonomy of Crimea.
According to the Ministry of Energy of the Crimea, during peak hours flow from Ukraine on the Crimean peninsula is about 800 MW. Domestic generating capacity in the Crimea can produce about 400 MW, of which mobile gas turbine power plants can produce about 260 MW. Increase the volume of electricity produced in the peninsula allow solar power plants, they can produce up to 230 megawatts of electricity. But this requires a bright sun, which in the Crimea is now almost there. Therefore, solar energy is not taken into account, explained “Kryminformu” in the Ministry of Energy.
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