Ulyukayev predicted an average oil price in 2016 – Interfax

Moscow. February, 15. INTERFAX.RU – Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev believes that the current price of oil is extremely low, and considers the most realistic scenario for 2016 the average annual price of $ 40 per barrel

“We have the stress test scenario on. $ 25. we believe that we must be prepared for short-term tests of this kind, but we do not anticipate that within a year the average price will be such a hold on Now we have to you, on average over a month -. about $ 30 per barrel . I believe that this is an extremely low value, however, at $ 25 per barrel scenario ready we have a scenario in my opinion is much more realistic -.. $ 40 per barrel, and I think that we are all together focus. about this figure, “- said in an interview Sunday Ulyukaev program” time “on channel

the current budget for 2016 is calculated based on an oil price of $ 50 per barrel, but the head of the Ministry of Finance Anton. Siluanov has already proposed an amendment to the budget calculated on the basis of the script in the $ 40 per barrel.

According to the newspaper “Kommersant”, in the version of the Economic Development Ministry forecast at $ 40 per barrel in 2016 it expects GDP decline by 0.8 % fall in output in industry by 0.3%, inflation in the range of 8-8.5%. Investments in this scenario, will fall by 6% in 2016, the volume of services to the population will decrease by 1.5%, real wages – by 3.5%, real disposable income will fall at the same rate of 3.9% per year, retail turnover trade to decline by 2.9%. The federal budget deficit in 2016 in the scenario of $ 40 per barrel, the ministry estimated 5.1% of GDP.

Economic Development calculated the so-called conservative scenario at $ 25 per barrel of Urals. Inflation in this scenario is expected in the 8.8-9.2% range, investments will fall by 6.7%, retail trade turnover – by 5.9%, industrial production decreased by 1.1%, real disposable income will fall by 4, 7%.