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Russia and three OPEC countries agreed on freezing oil production at the level of January this year in an attempt to stabilize the oil quotes. The first reaction to this agreement was the further destabilization of prices. In the future, they can go up, but experts say that now practically nobody can have on the world oil market is long-term, effective action.
At a meeting in Doha on January 16 representatives from Russia, Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar They agreed to freeze production at the level of January – but on condition that the other members of the Organization of petroleum exporting countries will agree to follow the example of the four
The market, nourishes rumors of an impending major decisions on Tuesday morning showed Brent quotations growth. 6%, but after the announcement of the final agreement between the two countries fell – from 35.5 to 33.73 dollars per barrel
The speculators, experts say, expect more stringent measures, so were disappointed with the outcome of the Doha negotiations.. First, OPEC members, in addition to Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Qatar are still 10 countries: Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, United Arab Emirates, Algeria, Nigeria, Ecuador, Angola and Indonesia. Hopes that an agreement will join the same Iran, from which just took off the sanctions and who is eager to regain lost market share slightly.
Second, countries agreed only to freeze production at current levels rather than a reduction. Meanwhile, the January production countries is on high: according to the International Energy Agency, Russia in January was producing nearly 10.9 million barrels per day, which is a record level for all the post-Soviet era. Saudi Arabia was producing slightly less – 10.2 million barrels (a record level of production was recorded in June of last year – 10.5 million barrels a day).
OPEC is not the same
in order to persuade Iran to accede to the agreements, the Minister of petroleum and Mines of Venezuela Eulogio Del Pino sent on Wednesday in Tehran, where he held consultations with representatives of the Iranian and Iraqi power authorities.
However, the main problem is even not the lack of rigid arrangements and unclear prospects for their achievements in the near future. The main problem, according to experts, is that over the past decade, the global oil market has undergone profound structural changes, which deprived it of existing players to manipulate prices in the long cut.
Back in 1998-1999, OPEC He managed as a united front to oppose the market and sags due to reduction of quotas to increase the oil quotes from US $ 10 per barrel to $ 140. Not to mention the oil crisis of 1973, when the Arab oil-producing countries, by refusing to supply oil to countries that supported Israel in the Yom Kippur War, during the year raised the price of the resource from 3 to 20 dollars.
With the development in the US industry shale oil in the last few years the possibility of OPEC or any world governments to influence the price of critically narrowed . This is obvious and independent experts, and representatives of the political establishment – in particular Russian. In one of his last public appearances a year ago it recognized Academician Yevgeny Primakov.
“It is necessary to take seriously the fact that the US, remaining until a net importer of oil, increased its production almost reached the Russian level. It is also possible to state OPEC is not a regulator of the oil production quotas and, consequently, does not affect, as before, the dynamics of world prices Cohesion member countries of this organization in the past. “, – he noted
Lack of mechanisms
The joint share of Russia and OPEC on the market reaches at the moment about 45%, says the head of the economic department of the Institute of energy and Finance Marcel Salikhov. However, even if all the States of the cartel to express solidarity with the Doha agreements, it is unlikely to give countries a long-term instrument of control over prices, he said.
“Now, in fact, in the global market is not a coordinating role previously performed OPEC . Saudi Arabia is a representation of that in current conditions is impossible long-term impact on prices, and do not try to do it in the 1980s, they were five consecutive years reduced production they have learned from this lesson and try to no longer repeat it “.. – he said.
there are no levers unilateral price effects there and Russia, he said. There remain, of course, verbal intervention that can provide short-term effect on prices. It happened at the end of January, when the Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak announced for the first time with OPEC on prices consultation. Quotes Brent shot up above $ 36, but then played back.
Fundamentally the market is not made up of verbal intervention and the balance of supply and demand. Currently on the market there is an excess of oil on the level of 1.5 million barrels. At the same time, Iran promises to increase production to 400-600 thousand. Barrels per day. And all this – on the background of the threat of a slowdown in demand from China, one of the world’s major energy consumers
However, some experts, in spite of everything, welcomed the agreement between Russia and the trio of OPEC member countries..
“this is a manifestation of the fact that representatives of major oil-exporting countries are able to agree. and this alone will boost certainty in the oil market, despite the fact that on the demand side will be a lot of risks, as well as by the countries that have not acceded to this agreement “, – said the deputy head of the Center for economic forecasting” Gazprombank “Maxim Petronevich
.” countries have shown that they can work together: this will cool the ardor of some speculative players – above all, representatives of financial institutions from any major speculation aimed at lowering the price of oil, “- he said
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