The Ministry of Finance has predicted 15 years of stagnation in the absence of reform – RBC

Photo: Yekaterina Kuzmina / RBC

Ministry Russian Finance to calculate the variants of development of the Russian economy in the period up to 2030. According to one of them, Russia will face a protracted stagnation, if there is no reform

In the absence of reforms, Russia will face a protracted period of stagnation. Writes about this on Monday, “Vedomosti” newspaper, which is acquainted with the basic parameters of the Russian Finance Ministry’s forecast regarding the development of the Russian economy in the period up to 2030.

This is the so-called inertial scenario. According to him, the price of oil up to 2030 remains at $ 40 per barrel in real terms (nominal increase of about $ 1 per year). The Finance Ministry expects the economy to contract by 0.8% in 2016, as growth resumes, but after this period, the economy will grow by only 1-1.3% in 2017 year. On average, inertial forecast, in 2014-2030 years the average annual economic growth in Russia will amount to 0,8%.

The price of oil in nominal terms, according to the inertial forecast to exceed $ 50 per barrel in 2028 only. Oil will cease to grow already in 2016 and will decrease its exports – to stagnate, predicts the Ministry of Finance

Finance Ministry spokesman said the publication that this scenario, which is the Ministry of Internal calculations do not include structural reforms.. According to him, it is not a major. “There are others that we believe more correct to Russia and which are associated with the implementation of reforms,” ​​- the newspaper quoted his companion.

The representative of the Ministry recognizes that if nothing is done, including with the budget structure, the long-term stagnation scenario can be realized. However, he hopes, it is most likely the other – the target -. Ministry of Finance of the script, which will enable the economy to go on the growth rate of 2-3%

He explained that to achieve this goal will be partly due to more expensive oil – $ 50 per barrel in real terms for the whole period. However, a key condition he calls the structural changes in the economy. As an example, he cites the increase in return on capital at the expense of productivity growth, outpacing the growth of wages, and, as a result, increase in the share of investment in GDP. Such a maneuver requires increasing labor market flexibility, mobility of workers, investments in their re-education, he said.

On Sunday, Minister of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev said in an interview with “First Channel”, he said that “a more realistic scenario,” it Ministry of oil price in 2016 will be $ 40 per barrel. Current oil prices of $ 30 per barrel, he called “extremely low.”