will grow by 1-1.3 per cent a year by 2030, Russia’s economy. In general, over 15 years, the GDP will grow by 13 per cent – for comparison, the same amount it increased in 2011-2013. Real GDP size is restored to the level of 2014 in 2020. In addition, real wages return to the bar in 2014 only 10 years. This information is contained in the long-term forecast of the Ministry of Finance said on Monday, February 15 the newspaper “Vedomosti».
This is the inertial scenario without structural reforms, said the representative of the Ministry of Finance. This laid the forecast oil price of $ 40 per barrel. The federal official said that it is the internal calculations the Ministry of Finance, and the official long-term forecast is out.
On the average, as indicated in the inertial variant economy grows by 0.8 percent per year. Oil production and exports will cease to increase in 2016. Imports will increase by 3-4 per cent per year. At the same time the Central Bank achieves deceleration of inflation -. 2017 price increases will be four per cent, by 2030 will fall to 2.6 percent
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The federal official told the publication that the long-term stagnation scenario can be realized. But he believes that the more likely other developments, allowing to enter the annual economic growth of 2-3 percent. This is possible with the oil for 50 dollars and structural reforms. Their base – labor productivity growth that will outpace wage growth. The labor market must become more flexible, and employees – mobile. In this case, the 2018 GDP decline will stop, and by 2030 it will grow by 44 per cent. Real Russian salaries will recover to the level of 2014 in 2022-m and then go to three percent growth in the year.
The official financial and economic bloc in an interview with the newspaper pointed out that the slowdown in wages compared to labor productivity is unlikely : require extremely painful reforms and mass layoffs of public sector employees
Earlier, on January 26, Minister of economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev told Russian President Vladimir Putin that the deepest phase of the economic crisis in the country was passed at the end of the second quarter of 2015.. “We will be able to moderate, cautious optimism come a year”, – said the minister
According to the IMF forecast, in 2016 Russia’s GDP will shrink by one percent, the World Bank is waiting for the recession to 0.7 per cent.. The Economic Development Ministry predicts drop by 0.8 percent, with the average price of Urals oil at $ 40 a barrel.
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