News of agreement with the OPEC countries to fix the level of oil production have a negative impact on the value of the ruble. In the future, the ruble may strengthen if oil prices were to stabilize.
Strengthens the eve of the ruble fell again after Bloomberg reported that during the meeting the head of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak with Saudi Oil Minister Ali al -Naimi, representatives of Venezuela and Qatar, an agreement was reached to freeze the volumes of oil production at the level of January 11, 2016.
The dollar dropped in the run-up to the meeting in Doha below 76 rubles., grew up on the news of the production freeze up 77.459 rubles. At the same time the euro rate rose to 86.66 rubles. The cost of a barrel of Brent on the ICE exchange, today raises to $ 35.54, after reports of Qatar dropped to $ 33,7
«The players are disappointed with the results of the meeting of the OPEC countries, and continue to buy dollars against the ruble,” -. Says trader “Renaissance Capital” Levon Atanasyan.
Nordea Bank analyst Dmitry Savchenko said that the news about the negotiations with the Russian Minister of energy representatives of OPEC countries is closer to neutral than positive. “Alluding to the decline in oil production market is not heard” – he states. According to Alexander Novak, following the meeting of four countries – Russia, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela – are willing to freeze oil production at the level of January, when other manufacturers join this initiative
According to Savchenko, such verbal intervention. are unlikely to be the basis for long-term strengthening of oil prices. “We expect the year-end price of $ 40 a barrel, but this is due to the reduction of investment in the oil sector. Last year, their volume decreased by 15%, in doing so, we expect to reduce by 20% “, – said Savchenko
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According to him, this will to a reduction in oil demand in the market and can have a positive impact on the ruble. “While the prospects for the Russian currency remains vague,” – the analyst added
At the same time, some analysts do not exclude the strengthening of the ruble in the medium term.. “Stabilization of the level of production may lead to an increase in oil prices to $ 40 per barrel, which will allow the ruble strengthen to 72-74 rubles. for dollar “, – does not exclude senior analyst Promsvyazbank Dmitry Gritskevich. According to him, this will happen if other manufacturers will join this initiative. “Most of uncertainty makes the expectation entering the Iranian market,” – emphasizes analyst
At the same time, according to Gritskevich, the ruble will be constrained by “budget” factor (low ruble price of oil).. To date, the ruble value of Urals is 2353 rubles. / Bbl. against a budgeted 2728 rub. / bbl. (Including curtailment).
According to the chief expert of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank Yegor Sucina, if there is no US production growth and exports, to the middle of the year it can be a balance between supply and demand. “In the case of fl th the price of oil could reach $ 40-50 per barrel, which will positively affect the rate of the ruble,” – the expert said in an interview with RBC
«The fact that something. We agreed to a stabilizing market prices. By momentary increase that did not lead prices, but it can potentially lead to a rise in oil prices, “- recognizes the chief dillingovyh center Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk. According to him, if the agreement with the OPEC countries will run, oil prices will gradually recover to the end of the year, which means that the ruble may grow. “In addition, the ruble may appear to strengthen the dynamics of self. It can be based on the balance of payments: the balance of trade remains positive, the outflow of capital is gradually decreasing, debt payments are reduced “, – the expert believes
An additional factor in the Russian currency support can also be a reduction in the volume of savings of the population and companies. . “They will have to exchange a part of the purchased currency to get rubles for current expenses,” – said Romanchuk
«It is very difficult to predict what will happen next.. Now the market volatility is extreme, participating very aggressively trying to find a new price levels “, – commented the head of trading IR” Aton “Yaroslav Podsevatkin. He predicts the dollar in the range of 70-80 rubles.
By 13:50 MSK price of a barrel of Brent on the ICE exchange was $ 34.02, the dollar on the Moscow Stock Exchange at this point reached the level of 77.34 rubles. , euro – 86.43 rubles.
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