In Thursday oil fell again, the currency has risen (by 20:00 the dollar was above 80 rubles.), and the chairman of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina confirmed that it is not ready to spend reserves to support the ruble, and promised to start de-dollarization of the economy
Ruble not help
On Thursday, the Bank of Russia Chairman Elvira Nabiullina held a traditional meeting with the bankers in a boarding house “Bor”, organized by the Association “Russia”. She said, in particular, that the Central Bank does not support the idea of helping the ruble by spending reserves. Spend can be very fast, then the economy will return to the same situation, and the rate will be more volatile, the chairman of the Central Bank said. She noted that the exchange rate stabilized when stabilize oil prices. The best way to achieve the stability – ??? is the diversification of the economy, less dependent on oil, said Nabiullina
According to the Central Bank, the regulator does not consider the plans to change the exchange rate policy, including the replenishment of the budget.. “The Finance Ministry does not consider such an option replenishment, we are with them on contact. This effect of an artificially and would have negative consequences, “??? – said Nabiullina
On the eve of Reuters news agency, citing a source in the Russian government announced that the Central Bank together with the government can coordinate actions to address the problem of the budget deficit. -this fall in oil prices due to the informal targeting the ruble. The Finance Ministry, in response to the information said they did not discuss and do not allow the “possibility of purposeful weakening of the ruble,” “On the contrary, at the moment we are working on measures for fiscal consolidation and reduce the federal deficit. Such measures, from the point of view of the Ministry of Finance, will have a strengthening effect on the course »???
dollars -. Especially
« One of the objectives of the Central Bank 2016 will be de-dollarization banks’ balance sheets “, – promised ??? Nabiullina at a meeting with bankers
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In late 2014 – ??? early 2015 there was a growth of foreign currency deposits of the population, but “then we have managed to stabilize the share of foreign currency deposits” (after the jump rate of the Central Bank raised its key interest rate, after it rose and rates on ruble deposits in banks)
In 2015, the share of foreign currency deposits increased in eight of the ten largest banks. More significant, it increased the bank ‘FC Opening “- ??? at 9.82 percentage points, to 60.7%. In second place in terms of growth, Sberbank – ??? by 7.8 percentage points to 29.6%. The increase occurred mainly due to the return of currency into the banking system, in addition, some customers have converted to foreign currency denominated deposits, said principal analyst Sberbank Mikhail Matovnikov.
Chief Economist of the National Rating Agency Maxim Vasin said that in 2016 the share of foreign currency deposits continue to grow, “This process is fueled by the fact that the ruble deposits with high interest rates, opened in late 2014 – early 2015 ???, completed and investors are moving into the currency.” The situation will change only if the ruble will begin to harden, or if the government will introduce restrictions on the acquisition and currency movement, said Vasin.
De-dollarization will also affect companies. Regulator concerned about the situation when they hold in dollars and receive revenue in rubles. “When the currency is changing its course dramatically, this can lead to serious problems in servicing debt, especially enterprises that receive foreign currency loans, but do not have foreign exchange earnings. This we see in the real estate sector, trade, when we have shopping centers received loans in foreign currency and ruble revenues. depreciation dramatically increased the debt load, it may create systemic risks for the real economy and the financial system “- quoted Nabiullina« Interfax »
«haircut» deposits
bank resolution through the forced conversion of the claims of creditors of the third stage in subordinated loans, or the authorized capital of the bank, also known as the bail-in, – an alternative to revocation of the license. “Now we are discussing the topic of participation of creditors in the financial recovery. In my opinion, this issue requires a very detailed discussion, without haste, it is a major change in policy, “- said the head of the Central Bank
At the Central Bank have been several instances where creditors of troubled banks would prefer the opportunity to participate in the rehabilitation of the license revocation. . “In fact, bail-in – it is a higher degree of protection of creditors and depositors. But all this should be discussed with the banking community and very neat approach to this issue “, – said Nabiullina
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However, she questioned the advisability of individuals to participate in the mechanism of bail-in: «The question is whether you want to participate to individuals – that is the question. We discover how the Central Bank, we see the possibility of such a procedure, if it will give additional protection to depositors and creditors … Of course, it is necessary to avoid that the confidence of depositors of small and medium-sized banks will suffer ».
The idea of” haircut “of large deposits in the rehabilitated banks discussed in the Finance Ministry and the Central bank. According to the deputy chairman of the Central Bank of Mikhail Sukhov, if the bail-in mechanism was introduced three years ago, the cost of bank resolution would be reduced by 20-25%. At the same time, he said, large investors will be given the option of equity – equity or subordinated loans
currency mortgage holders
«We believe. that the banks themselves should be restructured loans ipotechnikam currency, especially when it comes to families with low income and housing economy “, – said Nabiullina. It also expects to finally earn the support program borrowers who find themselves with a difficult situation, to which the government has allocated 4.5 billion rubles AHML.
Central Bank collects and analyzes information on how to solve the problem of banks currency borrowers told CB head: “We need to understand what is happening in the market and, accordingly, whether the use of targeted measures to support the government’s program for borrowers need.” According to the Bank of Russia, is now in the currency of the share of mortgage loans is approximately 3% of the total volume of mortgages issued. At the same time the Central Bank noted in this segment of the high level of delay
In January -. Early February, the Central Bank has sent to banks letter with the requirement to report on foreign currency mortgage holders, by requesting banks issued currency mortgages, information on the status of the loan portfolio, and also on the restructuring programs that the bankers are ready to offer foreign currency borrowers.
In order to solve the problem of the regulator proposes to establish higher capital ratios coating. “We are now published a draft document, which we all loans and securities in foreign currency, except for loans to subjects of the Russian Federation, offering to set up factor 1.1 for covering capital requirements for these loans,” – ??? said Nabiullina. According to real estate ratio of 1.3, securities of non-residents Securities -. ??? 1,5
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