17.12.2014
About. Kuvshinov, M. Papchenkova, M. Lyutova, M. Overchenko, “Vedomosti”
The situation is critical. What is happening, even in a nightmare could not think of a year ago, “- admitted yesterday the first deputy chairman Sergei Shvetsov. The next few days will be comparable with the heaviest period of the fall of 2008, he said – and only hope that the experience will help find a solution to the crises and to survive in this situation.
Emergency increase of the Central Bank on Tuesday night with a key rate 10 5 to 17% did not help much: the ruble continued to dive, the euro yesterday reached 100 rubles., dollars – to 78.9 rubles., rising half a day at 34%.
We must learn to live in the new conditions of a weak ruble, said yesterday morning, Chairman of the Central Bank Nabiullina. In the market there is simply no currency, no one sells, says chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov FG BCS. Sold only $ 10 million, you can change the dollar from 69 to 68 rubles., Reported at about 14.00 MSK head of dealing center Metallinvestbank Sergey Romanchuk: “But no one else wanted».
For the clients, banks put up for sale prohibitive tariffs Currency says the top manager of one of the medium-sized banks: “Everyone scared to sell the currency nobody wants. Formally, to refuse a client in foreign exchange transactions can not, but you can screw up the course. ” Analysts were astonished at not seeing panic securities market, although since the beginning of the year he had already spent more than $ 80 billion to maintain the course. “In such situations, the central bank of a developing country should chine market, selling dollars – wrote in a report Luis Costa, an analyst at Citigroup. – The Central Bank of Russia once again at a critical moment withdrawn from aggressive sales dollars, which would reinforce its monetary and foreign exchange policy. ” By evening, the ruble has played some of the losses, then again began to weaken: to 20.50 MSK dollar was worth 70.99 rubles.
The population began to shift from Monday ruble deposits into foreign currency, the bankers called the situation irreversible. Now the largest expected risk – not even the flight of depositors, and the translation of ruble deposits in the currency, said deputy chairman of Vnesheconombank Klepach: “We need a coordinated action for the sale of foreign exchange earnings.” One of the Central Bank to stabilize the panic can not, according to Klepach, because sales of foreign currency by exporters – in the hands of other departments. In an extreme case, the situation may end any form of currency restrictions, in the best case – a decrease in the reserves of the Central Bank, he predicts. To rectify the situation need all departments coordinated strategic decisions, he is convinced: “If the government wants to survive – there is no escape».
Ask exporters
At yesterday’s meeting with the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev officials figured out how to stabilize the situation: to provide more foreign currency to support the banks, including recapitalization, said Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev. The introduction of foreign exchange control is not discussed, he said. The same is said and Elvira.
Today, the government plans to hold a meeting with major exporters, a federal official said, it will just be a meeting without making much currency and at what intervals exporters could sell. There are no mandatory requirements, no government regulations does not intend to enter, emphasizes the source “Vedomosti”: “We can only ask».
Not all believe in it. Rate increase – a natural response regulator, which is necessary to reduce inflation, but the next step, if continued devaluation may be capital controls, does not exclude the Head of Investment Strategy Credit Suisse Nannette Hehler-Faydherbe. “This is a normal, reasonable measure” – would not be surprised Tikhomirov. “Our traders tell me that applications for purchase rubles no – quoted by Bloomberg Per Hammarlund, chief strategist for emerging markets at Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken. – I figured that [Bank to raise rates] 17% will give at least a month of respite. Now we can expect a repeat of 1998-1999. We also have one big step closer to the introduction of restrictions on the movement of capital. ” “The last step for the perfect storm – the imposition of restrictions on the movement of capital” – quoted by Financial Times Heinz Ryuttimanna, emerging markets strategist at Julius Baer.
While falling oil prices – and the ruble falls, so exporters simply do not sell the currency, and for tax payments take out loans in rubles Exporters – reliable customers willing to lend to them, and discourage any such devaluation rate on the loan, said Tikhomirov. Exporters are seeking ways to avoid any currency sales, knows Sergey Pukhov of the Center for the Development of the Higher School of Economics: “Falling oil – falls and the market rate may turn only after the reversal in oil prices.” And she is getting cheaper by 2-3% per day at this rate projected to reach bottom in the $ 40-50 per barrel – a matter of days, head of the department expects the Russian Academy of National Economy and Public Administration under the President of Russia, the former director of the MICEX and former deputy chairman Konstantin Korischenko: “We are on the threshold of a stop or turn.” Yesterday, a barrel of Brent fell by 2% to $ 58,9.
New Life
The incident rate increase will definitely send the economy into recession: the direct effect – about 4% GDP growth, ie. e., instead of the expected decline in 2015 to 0.2% will decline by 5%, revises forecast director of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. Recession and so mature, and if such devaluation and inflation rate of decline will be more, but if you cut budget spending – and then even more, said Klepach.
The situation is extraordinary, we must first stabilize the foreign exchange market, agree Korischenko: economic growth can only be when the economic actors can make plans. But when the fall of the ruble provides yoy hundred percent, no other strategy than investing in the currency can not be, he said.
Increasing rates approve analysts and officials, one claim – it was necessary to do so earlier. “CB lagging the market, instead of doing proactive steps – says Pukhov. – Says something [CB] correctly: to prevent the negative expectations, and is now in after the fact, after all the negative news. ” “But we are strong hindsight” – recognizes a former first deputy chairman Ulyukayev.
«rate increase to 17% – this is the end of the banking system” – emotional top manager of one of the banks: banks to raise interest rates on loan companies to 20%, the economy at such rates can not work for the real sector is death.
Black Tuesday will have three effects lists Tikhomirov: the crisis of confidence in the policy of the authorities and the ruble inflation shock wave of corporate defaults. After these falls even with stabilization of the transfer of savings into the currency continues, he is convinced: “Maybe it is not a return to the 1990s, but a serious blow.” Inflation for at least another year stay above 10-12%, says Tikhomirov: “Even if the rate will revert to 50 rubles ./$ , importers will lay in contracts the peak that was, that is. E., We are faced with an inflationary shock.” The devaluation caused a reassessment of banks portfolios, this will lead to defaults of companies and problems with capital from banks, demand for refinancing and an additional burden on the Central Bank continues Tikhomirov.
Yesterday OFZ portfolio fell by 10%, which is actually ate the annual income of the bank, said a top manager of one of the banks: banks use for OFZ repo Bank, now need to either dovnosit paper for a loan, or to reduce the attraction.
The economy in 2015 could fall by 3% if a barrel of oil will cost $ 70, but the most important qualitative change in the situation – a new reality Tikhomirov says: “We have entered into a serious economic crisis more severe than in 2008-2009.”. Income population dropped to eight years ago, and in addition to revenues decline, unemployment will rise, he expects, in contrast to 2009, when the state supported public and companies, now he has no such money.
«Comment “new reality” will not – unprintable expressions do not want to use, and the other I have about it is not “- cut official financial and economic bloc.
« It’s scary – what’s going on – in terms of well-being. No end in sight: we are back in the 1990s, “- said Nikolai Kondrashov of the Centre for the Development of the Higher School of Economics. According to the calculations Development Center, Russian three-year waiting recession, income, investment, and even if the price of a barrel of oil will return to $ 100, will decline only slightly less. “Out of the crisis we do not see: will swamp – investment, financial,” – said Kondrashov, the original cause of the collapse – sanctions and oil.
Even if oil prices rise, a crisis of confidence quickly deal does not work, Tikhomirov agree.
This is not a return to the 1990s, objects Klepach, but a serious lesson in security economics. Potential stabilization and survival of large, he said, but the government’s measures to stabilize the wrong: for example, the sovereign wealth fund investment in oil and gas complex in the situation of reducing oil production – is eating away instead of oil and gas revenues to diversify the economy.
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Comment:
Guest , December 18, 2014 03:55 :
Dirty Money yes choke, choke human blood !!!
Guest , December 18, 2014 03:51 :
traitors to the fatherland against the wall, zhoposhnikov, thieves, those who sell home and does not respect and appreciate the country in which he lives. Support Putin!
Guest , December 18, 2014 03:08 :
A Th. Narmul. Communicate with God, says that the most important thing in life is that our Crimea. Let us rejoice for it. And the bridge there will be soon. The only thing I would add, is a word piderasty. To see whether, in the phrase, the word can not erase. In general, all is well. Putin and Medvedev can not marry his people. And on -skorogo chao.
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