Increase the Bank of Russia the key rate to 17% per annum was a surprise for the market. Another big surprise – the virtual absence in the market of the Central Bank, which has led the ruble to new record lows. Applications for market support measures were made only in the evening, but still need a plan of action will be to approve the president, writes RBC.
On Tuesday, the ruble continued to fall, losing at the end of the trading day of 5.4% against the dollar and 5.7% to eur. At 20:00 MSK on the Moscow stock exchange has been fixed rate 68.18 rub. / US $ . and 85.56 rub. / Euro. During the day, the ruble was approaching the mark of 79 rubles. per dollar.
The strengthening of the ruble by the end of the day is not associated with CB interventions, traders said. “The Central Bank did not go to the market, possibly due to the strengthening of currency sales by large banks or natural correction,” – said one of them.
The fall of the ruble has occurred despite a decision by the Central Bank on record since 1998 raising the key rate of the Central Bank 6.5 n. n., up to 17% per annum. Central Bank decided at night, the release of it appeared on his website about 1:00 on December 16.
“The emergence of the information at night excited the market and gave reason to believe that the Central Bank started to panic, which in turn stimulated panic in the market. If they have information at 8 am, in terms of impact on the market, nothing has changed to, but there would be no panic, “- said one trader.
” The crisis of confidence with investors to the policy of the regulator and the monetary authorities in general there is, the counting FG BCS chief economist Vladimir Tikhomirov. – Such rate movement, as well as the Central Bank decision to raise the rate by 6.5 p. p., point to panic “.
Market participants expect that along with the rate increase and extension limits on currency Repo (from $ 1.5 billion to $ 5 billion), the Central Bank will begin to draw direct foreign exchange intervention. “Together, these measures could reverse the trend,” – says chief economist for Russia and CIS countries “Renaissance Capital” Oleg Kuzmin. “We waited for the morning that the rate increase will be combined with powerful interventions that saturate the market currency. One bid has not worked,” – says the treasurer Metallinvestbank Selim Agarzaev.
On the eve of December 15, the ruble has lost the dollar and euro more than 9%. On this day at 17:00 was scheduled regular meeting of the National Council of the financial, but, according to members of the board, it was canceled. “I learned about the transfer in the second half of the day” – said RBC member of the NSF, Senator Nikolay Zhuravlev. Following the procedure of the decision to cancel the NSF receives its chairman. They are now the Finance Minister Anton Siluanov. “Obviously, such a fateful decision (to raise rates) could not be made without the consent of the government,” – said the source of RBC, close to the Central Bank. Two sources in the government told RBC that cabinet members were not involved Elvira Nabiullina night to discuss solutions.
According to one of the market participants, to radical measures CB spodviglo close of trading on December 15 at which the ruble fell to 64 21 rubles ./$ and 78.87 rub. / Euro. “Further movement continued on EBS (electronic trading platform), where the dollar rose by 7 rubles.” – Said a trader of a large bank.
Market participants believe that the rate increase could not reduce panic, because the Central Bank missed when he could influence the dynamics of the course. “The controller responds with a big delay – said Tikhomirov. – The crisis in the steel market to grow for a long time, and it was impossible to prevent a build-up of the market”.
The experts called the decision a mistake of the Central Bank to raise rates by only 1 point. N on Last week: if the regulator would immediately decided to raise rates by 6.5 p. p., would be the effect, they believe. “Imagine that you have to catch a train, prior to which the remaining minutes, and from it you separates kilometer – compares the chief economist at AFK” Sistema “Evgeny Nadorshin. – Of course, you can just give up, but if it’s a matter of life and death, you undertake every effort to catch him – running, catch the car. This is similar to what makes the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market in an attempt to stabilize the situation “.
On Tuesday, the first deputy chairman Ksenia Yudaeva gathered at a closed meeting of analysts from banks and investkomany to discuss the situation. According to one participant, emergency measures, such as restrictions on the movement of capital at the meeting were proposed. “Representatives of the Central Bank said that intend to continue to target inflation and provide liquidity to banks to the extent necessary”, – says participant in the meeting.
The first deputy chairman Sergei Shvetsov described the situation as critical. “Even in a nightmare we could not imagine a year ago that this is possible,” – he said. He predicted that in the near future the situation “will be comparable with the most difficult period in 2008. Interlocutor RBC in one of the state-owned banks also said that no one – including the Central Bank – did not expect such a devaluation.
The fact that the Central Bank missed time to raise rates, and recognize the government. On Tuesday evening, held an unscheduled meeting on the situation in the finrynkah, with the participation of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev. According to him the end of Economic Development Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that could be used to raise the key rate of the Central Bank, but ” we are strong hindsight “.
However, according to the minister, the meeting did not look for blame:” We are more engaged in what to do. “The Government has outlined a set of measures they need to ensure a balance of supply and demand for the foreign exchange market. The focus will shift to the ruble on foreign currency refinancing “for the same tools, the same mortgage volumes, which are now”.
A government source acknowledged that expect banks to provide foreign currency loans through the Central Bank in large volume is not necessary. “There is a calculation that the rate of decline in January under pressure from their own natural causes, when state-owned companies need arise in rubles. Later suitable period of payment of taxes,” – he said.
The Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank is also discussing recapitalization Russian banks through the provision of subordinated loans of the bank, said a source in one of the major banks. “It is, at least ten of credit institutions, including the three largest private bank,” – he knows the source of RBC. According to him, banks can allocate 30 billion rubles. with the proviso that they will lend to the most significant enterprises of the Russian economy.
Providing funding will be accompanied with war profiteers, say two sources of RBC in the government. Welcome to this government gave the president, recalls one of them. “The Central Bank will take the speculators besieged” – confirms another interlocutor RBC.
Another measure – support for the banking sector. This will require changes of laws and regulatory framework of the Bank of Russia “in terms of additional capitalization of Russian banks in terms of ensuring greater regulatory comfort.” Exchange controls at the meeting were not discussed, the Minister said.
One of the proposals discussed – to reduce the requirements for loans to companies, because the price of security has taken a beating, said a source in the government. Has it been approved, he does not know. “We are discussing options for support, and this also applies to project finance, support for import and agriculture,” – said Ulyukayev.
Two sources in the government told RBC that the discussion of the package of measures will continue on Wednesday in the government and in the evening perhaps members of the cabinet will go to the president for political approval. Measures to stabilize the market already reported financial and economic bloc of the government president, said RBC president’s press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, declined to comment on the response to their president.
Material provided by RBC news
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