The dollar and the euro is firmly fixed on the new historical heights – above 58 rubles and 72 rubles respectively. The ruble continues to plummet amid falling oil prices to multi-year lows – below $ 62 per barrel mark Brent.
In this regard, “spravorossy” made to the State Duma amendments to the law “On Currency Regulation and Currency Control “, which defines the emergency measures to support the ruble, according to the website of the party. “We need urgent, emergency measures to retain the national currency in order to reduce the negative consequences for the citizens of Russia”, – said in a memorandum.
According to the bill, one of the measures to support the ruble introduced mandatory sale of 50% of foreign exchange earnings of individual entrepreneurs and all companies working with currency. In this case, the central bank will have to establish a list of foreign currency, subject to mandatory sale in the domestic market of the country. According to deputies, the bill introduces measures that were already operating in Russia before, and were much tougher.
In 1999, all Russian exporters were obliged to sell 75% of its foreign currency earnings, then this standard has gradually declined. Central Bank canceled the forced sale of foreign currency earnings for exporters in 2006, as part of a complete renunciation of capital controls, before a meeting of “eight” in St. Petersburg. And as stated by the President Vladimir Putin November 10 APEC meeting in Beijing, Russia does not intend to re-enter capital controls.
homosexual minister Siluanova
Now, however, many companies hold proceeds from the sale of raw materials and goods abroad in dollars and euros, which contributes to the weakening of the ruble, which from the beginning of the year lost 40% – the worst figure since Ukrainian hryvnia among world currencies. Therefore, last week Putin urged the central bank and the government to coordinate their actions in the foreign exchange market. And after Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said that the government has proposed to Russian state-owned companies to support the ruble. Finance Ministry wants to oblige the state-owned “discuss politics sale of foreign currency earnings at the level of the board of directors,” said agency Vloomberg Deputy Finance Minister Alexey Moiseev .
The call of the government to “Rosneft”, “Gazprom” and other exporters to convert more foreign currency earnings into rubles is equivalent to the introduction of capital controls, economists say UK “Sputnik” and Bank of America. According to General Director of “Sputnik” Alexander Losev , «of course, we are talking about the introduction of capital controls, although in a non-traditional way.” In this case, the sale of foreign exchange earnings especially “recommended” companies, whose activities are dependent on the state or controlled by them, so to give up such a “homosexual” Minister Siluanova to manage currency they can not.
The Central Bank for its part, is also struggling the strengthening of the ruble. Last week, the board of directors of the Bank of Russia has decided to raise its key interest rate to 10.5%, which was supposed to help fight accelerating inflation and support the ruble. But amid these applications exchange rates jumped again, historical highs. In addition, this method of fighting inflation will increase bank interest rates on loans, including those for the population. As a result, in an attempt to reduce inflation, appreciation of the Central Bank loans even harder hit by the Russian economy, which is already experiencing problems. Such actions of the Central Bank only aggravate the situation, because it just collapses manufacturing sectors, which were so poor credit, and especially they hit the public, economists say.
Meanwhile, market experts believe that the central bank does not use all of their capabilities to fight a bull against the ruble in the market. “Intervention of Central Bank are too small and do not have a significant and lasting impact on the ruble – said” JV » principal analyst Sergey Melnikov Teletreyd . – Now, if he did not spend every day for a billion dollars, and a tunnel and threw it on the market at once 10 billion unexpectedly speculators, it would raise the rate of the ruble to 50 to the dollar. And speculators who opened short positions for Sale ruble would lose a lot of money, and, borrowing that would permanently discourage them hunt put on the depreciation of the Russian currency. It was so at the time weaned speculators play against the Swiss central bank pound Switzerland ».
« The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate, but it did not provide a parachute falling ruble: decline in oil prices seems unstoppable, and respond accordingly petro-currency ” Experts believe Bloomberg. According to them, in this situation, the Central Bank can not do much, and the only way for the Russian authorities – go the way of capital controls.
Is it good or bad, and whether to keep the ruble from further decline? About this “joint venture” said ex-adviser to the chairman of the Central Bank, the banking ombudsman Pavel Medvedev Russia .
– You know, we love to look under the lamp that lost in another place, and this bill from the same series. This is an attempt to deal with the consequences, instead of correcting the causes of the fall of the ruble. Rate of national currency – is a thermometer that shows how prosperous the country’s economy. And MPs want to just shake the thermometer to raise the rate and show that we are fine. But it is not – our economy is not healthy, and no bills of exchange restrictions will not help strengthen the ruble. There are a number of factors that affect the well-being of our economy, and the first of them – is kontrsanktsii that we have imposed on themselves in response to Western sanctions. The Prime Minister, imposing these kontrsanktsii, leave their way back, saying that we canceled them after two months, but it’s been four, and no one is going to cancel, and the economy, meanwhile, falls into a recession.
«SP”: – It turns out that in addition to Western sanctions, which greatly influenced the economic growth and the exchange rate, we have added more problems themselves and their countermeasures?
– Of course, because already quite clear that the government kontrsanktsii impact on our economy as much or even more than Western sanctions. And all the talk about the government’s import substitution remain at the level of conversation. Because in order to start the import, investors should have an incentive to invest in domestic production, and not to withdraw them abroad. So far, nothing like this happens, and the outflow of captan the country longer than the crisis year of 2009. As an entrepreneur can build a new plant to produce products that we can not buy in the West, if investors have turned away from him, and the cost of credit Russian banks prohibitive?
«SP”: – In the past Office Ulyukayev week published a scandalous economic forecast that the Russian economy in the next year will fall into recession – GDP fell by 0.8%. Against this background, the central bank raises its key interest rate to fight inflation. But it will make loans more expensive and finally finish our production?
– You say correctly, but here it is necessary to bear in mind also that the central bank alone can not fight the recession in economy. In this regard, I came up with this image: the economy – it’s a long, heavy timber, and the regulator have the opportunity to pick it up only at one end, but someone has to pick it up on the other side. If the central bank will not raise its key interest rate, in our ailing economy rubles will be cheaper, corporations and citizens will purchase them with great pleasure, to buy them and send dollars abroad. According to the forecast of the Central Bank, this year Russia will flow away from the 130 billion dollars, and whether in such circumstances the regulator to mitigate the monetary policy that has flowed 260 billion?
«SP”: – So, he is criticized in vain?
– This criticism is absolutely insane. Instead of thinking about how to raise the other end of the log – to improve the economic climate, to create conditions for investment – experts say the decrease in the rate of the regulator. And then let the speculators buy the currency of its output abroad, and then comes the head of the Investigative Committee Bastrykin and all of them to sit down and be happy in our land.
«SP”: – After The central bank has raised the theory of the ruble was to be strengthened, but he, on the contrary, strongly collapsed. Why did this happen?
– The answer to this question came up, Leo Tolstoy, who wrote a fairy tale. Terribly hungry man came to the market and bought a loaf of bread, eaten – not eaten, bought another loaf eaten – not eaten, bought a small bagel and ate and ate. Ruble collapsed not from the central bank raised its key interest rate, and the fact that it raised high enough. But still, he collapsed not as hard as it would be if the rate is not raised at all.
«SP”: – What do you think about the proposal to some experts, to carry out unexpected intervention large scale to permanently discourage speculators hunting play against the ruble?
– The fact that speculators also know how to count, and can easily count, when the Central Bank reserves ending on such large daily intervention. And now the regulator reserves remains less than the cost of a semi-annual imports (This macroeconomic adequacy of foreign exchange reserves to stabilize the financial system. Approx. Aut.), Which, moreover, is constantly going up. Therefore, the Central Bank cherishes its currency from reserves, and the fact that he now throws it on the market – it is a political, rather than economic action. I understand that he is under some pressure, as, for example, before the performance of the president in the air. Some people really want to shake the thermometer so that it showed a normal temperature, at least temporarily …
Meanwhile, CB Head Nabiullina said that in 2015 ” even in the worst case scenario, will strengthen the national currency. ” “The ruble must be significantly strengthened in the coming year, both due to the compensation of the observed effect is now” flight “or, in other words, excessive depreciation, and due to rising prices of oil,” – reports the words of the head of the Central Bank of RIA “Novosti”. According to Nabiullina, the Russian currency is now under pressure by several factors: the uncertainty in the economy, oil prices, sanctions and speculators, so the ruble is undervalued by at least 15-20%.
A ex-minister Finance Alexei Kudrin predicts a further weakening of the ruble. According to Kudrin, in the future, the situation with the Russian currency seriously will not change – the ruble will move after the price of oil, which will be cheaper, and in the next two or three years it will be a little more to weaken.
Photo: Anton Novoderezhkin / TASS
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