Can our relationship suddenly return to the previous level of partnership and unprecedented confidence
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Photo: kremlin.ru
Since 2010, when there was a Turkish-Israeli incident with the ship so-called peace flotilla to an official apology of Prime Minister Netanyahu took three years to Turkey . Three years it took the parties to officially announce the signing of an agreement on normalization of relations. Against the background of these six-year ordeal, the process of normalization of Russian-Turkish crisis, the ongoing “some” seven months, started with cosmic speed.
The mere fact that a telephone conversation took place on the initiative of the Russian side after months radiotishiny already was read clearly: the message of the President of June 27, Erdogan made in the Kremlin as an official apology to Turkey to Russia. But the result sorokapyatiminutnoe conversation has surpassed all imaginable expectations – even before the press secretary Peskov pointed out that a rapid return to the old format of relations should not expect and the process should take place in stages, and just a day later, President Putin instructed the government to start the procedure of normalization of trade and economic relations as a whole, including tourism. To plan for unfreezing the Turkish direction does not become a hindrance even produced on the eve of the attack in Istanbul’s airport that killed over 40 people and has become one of the largest in the history of the world.
Let me remind you that the cancellation of charter posts and ban the sale of tours at the end of last year, accompanied by a commentary by the Russian Foreign Ministry that Turkey supports terrorism and travel back to the Russian citizens are not safe. last year statistics fully confirm this: only in the last 12 months, the number of civilian casualties, both Turks and foreigners, as a result of terrorist attacks nearer to 250, not to mention the wounded. If you add the losses among the Turkish military, the figure will increase even at times, and at the order of
However, the expression “figures – are stubborn things.” Overawed Erdogan’s assurances came during talks with Putin about “Turkey will make every effort to ensure the security of Russian citizens.” And, of course, before it brought by the Turkish side of apology that around it turns out, it turned out to be such, what they expect to see the Russian side.
It would be simplicity to believe that the language not previously been discussed and agreed upon by diplomats both sides. Statement Peskov, Turkologist by training, the lack of philological subtleties in the text is the main proof of that. But it also, inexorably, begs the question: so it turns out that President Erdogan, political credo that “no retreat, no surrender!”, Giving the Russian side clearly reads a letter of apology, made a risky move in the eyes of their voters in the Russian name -Turkish friendship? Not at all: everything points to the fact that the Turkish government not only is not going to lose face in the reconciliation with Russia, but was determined to score points
So what was going on.? It is necessary to immediately make a reservation, that the search for an answer to this question is not intended to belittle or achievement of Russian diplomacy, not the step that made the Turkish leadership to Russia.
To begin with doubts, if they are someone and there are: Russian and Turkish versions of the letters on the Kremlin website and the Turkish Presidential administration are fully consistent with each other. Highlight key phrase, and read it in the words and syllables: “I want to once again express their sympathy and deepest condolences to the family of the deceased Russian pilot and say sorry. With all my heart I share their pain. Seven Russian pilot we perceive as a Turkish family. In the name of the relief of pain and the severity of the damage we are ready for any initiative »
Let’s start with the first level of analysis:.” Who “and” what, “said the word” sorry “? Message to the President of Russian Federation Vladimir Putin signed the address of the first person of the Republic of Turkey, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in connection with the death of the Russian pilot.
Next to whom the apology? The family of the deceased pilot, Hero of Russia Oleg Peshkov, and rightly so. Who is not in close, to ask for forgiveness …
But there is a subtlety that can be illustrated by the example of how in 2013, apologized to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the deaths of Turkish citizens – participants “Peace Flotilla”:. “I apologize to the Turkish people for every mistake, which led to the victims»
Here, too, not without nuances in the construction of sentences, but the fundamental difference is that in one case we are talking about the level of “the people” and, it turns out, the “country”. Although the flag under which the ship was going, was not Turkish, and Comorian. In the case of Russian aircraft, whose membership was the Turkish Air Force is well known, the letter refers only to the personal tragedy of the family of one of the two dead Russian soldiers, against which the Turkish president and said, “I’m sorry».
That is, Turkish side, addressing his apology to the family of Peshkov, did not respond to made after the incident and repeatedly repeated by President Putin qualified the incident as “aggression” and “knife in the back” of Russia, with which up to 24 November 2015 in Turkey, despite the differences, had a relationship strategic partnership.
With the payment situation is even more uncertain. In a letter to Erdogan referred to certain “initiatives”, while the Prime Minister of Turkey B.Yyldyrym first speaks of willingness to pay, and a day later takes his own words back. However, the Russian side is not only itself a payment, but also his “appointment” should be crucial. For postscript “compensation for / knit / airplane” would automatically mean the legal recognition of Turkey that the Su-24 shot was fired illegally, in violation of the rules.
As far as the third Russian demands concerning punishment the perpetrators of the incident, it is questionable how satisfactory should be for the Russian side made the Turks efforts to appoint “duty scapegoats” for Celik incident?
If you look deeper, the word, or rather, an expression that eating Turkish letter to the Russian side, really means “excuse me” and includes the recognition of involvement in the incident. But the range of its use varies from a minimum of misconduct to the faults of average weight, so to speak, and is more suitable for informal apology ritual character. But this, of course, a nuance that inevitably dissolves when translated into the Russian language.
No less important than the message itself, is something with which statements were made, the Turkish side in the local media directly before sending an apology and especially . the evening of June 27, when the Kremlin’s website appeared to mark his receipt
The essence of what is said “to” leadership of Turkey, can be reduced to a simple formula: “we are sorry, but do not apologize.” If we talk about the “after” that, speaking at his residence “Aksaray”, and commenting on the resumption of dialogue with Russia, President Erdogan used the only word “regret”. “Apologies” completely absent in his rhetoric, and on-screen design of the television images of local news. Furthermore, although the Russian theme sounded in the evening speech Erdogan last and looked like a dot at the end, but it is clearly lost on the background of a large Turkish diplomatic victory over Israel, which is the characteristic coincidence, on the same day, finally agreed with all the requirements of the Turkish hand – an apology, compensation and with the lifting of the blockade of the Gaza Strip. And the same Turkey has made a bold move in the direction of Russia, which demanded that the Turkish President Erdogan as “wisdom” and “personal courage” policy, not afraid of being accused of weakness.
Why do we do with all this we understand, after normalization launched and the two peoples fit to breathe a sigh of relief?
Yes, then, that burned on the Su-24, can not be too overzealous in that, very clear understanding of its neighbor and motives driving them, thus to eliminate or at least minimize the likelihood of recurrence of the incident. And the motives of the Turkish President Erdogan, a very experienced politician, exclusively pragmatic properties and lack of emotional components.
First, finally collapsed Turkey’s foreign policy of “zero problems with neighbors” has recently changed course on “reducing the number of enemies. ” And, as stated, for Russia and Israel in the near future be followed by reconciliation with Egypt and personally with President Gen. al-Sisi
Next:. Turkey, the blood from his nose, it is necessary to solve the Kurdish problem, which is impossible ., when the crisis in the yard with Russia and it is no progress in Syria
and the last fact lies in the economic plane: Turkish exports compete with the tourism industry of the country in terms of incidence. A program “rossiyanozamescheniya” Turks thing malorealizuemaya – on a variety of attributes best customers than Russia, find impossible
The resolution of all these difficulties should eventually emerge in a long time already lobbied President Erdogan transition from a parliamentary to a presidential form. government in the country, and this year.
expressed conviction that the Russian side is perfectly aware of the ambiguity in the Turkish apology, and the motivation that drives the Turkish leadership and personally President Erdogan. But, nevertheless, goes to the normalization of relations, obviously pursuing its agenda, which is not today or tomorrow, one way or another, will start to show
And here lies a fundamental question. Can our relationship survived the ordeal , with a wave of a handset suddenly return to the previous level of comprehensive strategic partnership and an unprecedented confidence? Or co-operation will be based selectively on the principle of «a la carte», in separate spheres of politics and economics, and on individual projects, such as “Akkuyu” or “Turkish Stream”? Despite the euphoria reigned on both sides of the Black Sea after a telephone conversation Russian President Vladimir Putin and the President of the Republic of Turkey and Erdogan made a statement on comprehensive normalization, I would not be in a hurry with any final conclusions on this subject, the a fundamental contradiction that Syria and personally by President Bashar al-Assad is still there, where his left hand after breaking November 24, 2015 …
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