As Brexit impact on the Russian economy and what to do to investors – Business Petersburg

A referendum in the UK ended unexpectedly for the majority of investors in the market reigns panic. “DP” predicts how severe blow Brexit will be for the Russian economy. Brexit, Investments, European Union Market

According to the results of the referendum on Thursday the United Kingdom voted to secede from the European Union: supporters Brexit (Britain + Exit) broke the barrier of 16.7 million votes, 51.9% voted in favor of the British. Although the referendum is advisory in nature, on the eve of the country’s government has promised that will fulfill the desire of the British, whatever it was. Within 2 years the UK out of the EU. So nightmare stock markets has become a reality today.

Since the publication of the results of true the most pessimistic forecasts Brexit consequences, in that on the eve of the market refused to believe. The totals are not predicted none of the previously conducted sociological surveys and observations. Oil and the euro earlier rose as expected, that many Brits have changed his mind after the murder of loud Joe Cox, opponents Brexit. The oil futures, the euro and the pound sterling was founded growth, which was expected due to Bremain (Britain + Remain, by analogy with Brexit). However, the decision came as a surprise to most investors, ensuring more rapid decline in assets.

Pound Sterling against the dollar fell at the opening 10%, of 11:30 at around 1.38 (-8%). News from the UK provoked rise in the dollar and the collapse of the euro: the euro at the same time the dollar dipped 2.24% and amounted to 1.11 dollars per euro. Brent, as well as analysts feared, responded to Brexit sharp decline of 6%, as of 11:30 played a little drop at around $ 48.7 (4.2%). The ruble against the backdrop of all these twists and turns after the black gold also rolled down: the dollar to the ruble of 11:30 rose by 4%, exceeded 65 rubles per ruble, the euro against the ruble at the same time shows an increase of 0.53% (72, 9 rubles per euro). The MICEX index at the same time falls to 2.41% and the RTS index – on 4,16%. Against this background, fall most blue chips: Sberbank ordinary shares are down 5.18%, shares of “Gazprom” – 3% shares of “LUKOIL ” – by 2.8%. Growing by more than 1% of the preferred shares of “Surgutneftegaz” – they favorably affects the US dollar growth

Paris instead of London

The impact Brexit all world markets will be prolonged, its effects on the background of stormy emotional reaction is too difficult to predict. “Today is only the first day, which, after a sensational decision is usually held in captivity emotions and short-term responses put forward the proposal to hold a similar referendum in the Netherlands, the genie euroscepticism is still out of the bottle.” – Shares his thoughts Director of the analytical department of the “Alpari” Alexander Razuvaev. – Results of the English popular opinion will cause, probably similar desires and other European citizens. The status of the EU as a pillar of the European common sense and an iron will today has cracked, and it is unlikely to pull the materials at hand “.

for the world market situation around the UK , on the one hand, reduces the likelihood of that the Fed will be able to move to a sustainable increase in the interest rate, and, on the other hand, increasing the likelihood of economic activity shifts in continental Europe, and it will play in favor of the strengthening of the euro, said chief analyst at Alfa Bank Natalia Orlova. “Prolonged and controlled transition process of transformation of relations of Great Britain and the EU implies that the situation on the world markets is unlikely to develop in the scenario of the financial crisis of 2008, “- she said

London tops the list of the world’s financial centers according to Long finance global index of financial centers. Become a successor as head of London financial center is Paris, said recently CEO Olivier BRED Banque Populaire Klein. “A significant part of the turnover in the financial markets spill over to other EU countries do not at once, but gradually after the British decision to withdraw from the EU should not hesitate to sudden bursts in the financial markets, capital outflows, sales on the London Stock Exchange, -. Predicted asset management specialist” Instant -Invest “Arevyan Rafael.

What will happen to the Russian market

on the Russian market the British decision will also long , but the indirect effect through the oil price drop . and the weakening of the ruble, “Most likely, the decline of Russian shares on Friday morning is a temporary emotional reaction, next week there will be a recovery,” – said Vsevolod Lobov, head of analytical department of IC “Dohod” “British results of the referendum led to a sharp appetites fall. the risk and increase the cost of borrowing. Therein lies the main risk for the Russian Federation. On the other hand, at the moment Russia has limited the possibility of borrowing in Europe without the British decision “, – says analyst” Discovery Agent “Andrei Kochetkov

.” On Brexit Russia is not significantly affected. We have our problems, more sensitive, “- wrote today on Twitter ex-Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.” The markets, of course, prosyadut, they have sunk, but in the medium term all the recover, certainly. That there will be more – plus or minus – show life will practice “, – said today Vladimir Putin (quoted by” RIA Novosti “)

Despite the fact that the EU -. It is the main trading partner Russia , turnover of Russian trade with Britain is not so great, and out of London from the EU for Britain will be an occasion to review the trading partners, among which Russia can take the last place, according to senior analyst GK Forex Club Alena Afanasyeva. “much great danger for Moscow is the current dynamics of the financial market. The fact that more than 80% of foreign exchange reserves represented by securities and currencies of foreign countries. The share of total EU – 60%, and the UK -. About 9% “

The main risks for Russia are still prospects for placement VTB assets, Bashneft and ALROSA under the partial privatization, which was scheduled to implement at the London site, as well as the possibility of reviewing the prospects for extending the branches of Nord stream to the UK, and in general, significant risks for Russia, with the exception of short-term correction in oil, Brexit shall not be, says Artem Deev, head of the analytical department AMarkets. ” as clarification of perspectives, I hope everything will fall into place, so that the final loss for Russia’s GDP will be negligible and will amount to somewhere 0.3 pp next year. That is, instead of the projected GDP growth of 0.8% in 2017, the Russian economy will grow by 0.5% “, – says Director General of the analytical community ThetaTrading Dmitry Ederman

However, there are other opinions. . Earlier in the SPIEF-2016 head Sberbank German Gref said that due to the UK out of the EU, Russia’s GDP will lose 1% of GDP, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov predicted another collapse of the ruble in the case Brexit:. a “black swan” in such the fragile situation can pull all of a feared Minister JPMorgan analysts also believe that the uncertainty in Europe derail the ruble:. review of credit ratings would provoke a drop in oil prices and the decline of the ruble, according to the analytical investment bank report Thus the most vulnerable due to Brexit Russian. state company will “Gazprom”, as up to 70% of its revenue comes from the European market, forecast to JPMorgan.

What investors

risk appetite was gone, investors are moving in defensive assets – the Japanese yen, the US dollar and gold. During Friday this trend will be continued, says the head of analytical department AMarkets Artem Deev. “Nevertheless, it is worth noting that Brexit risks have already been laid down by the market at the current level of quotations, so the barrage collapse within the next week to follow should not, and we will see the planned restoration of the market at the beginning of July,” – added the analyst.

“Most likely, in the next month the markets are very turbulent . Lasts it will be up as long as investors do not find alternatives to European assets, most likely in the United States. However, clear up all only when it becomes clear all the stages of the output of Great Britain from the EU. Who is active demand for safe-haven assets including the US dollar, the gold, the Japanese yen. However, this does not mean that such dynamics will last a long time. Most likely, in the near future both American and Japanese authorities will attempt to restrain the growth of the national currency through intervention So, perhaps, the current level -. it’s time to sell the yen, “- says Alena Afanasyeva.

According to Chief Economist BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov, after a short reaction downs and periods of volatility as the markets will assess the potential consequences of Brexit, it is possible to restore Russian stocks, bonds and currencies (possibly weakening 5-7% to 69-70 rubles to the dollar), because the factors that caused a two-fold rise in oil prices since the beginning of the year, have no connection with the UK and continue to operate. “Thus, the most daring can take advantage of the drawdown to buy Russian assets at attractive levels, we expect that the dust has settled already by the middle of next week.”, – Said Vladimir Tikhomirov.