to get out of the EU referendum was won by Britain Brexit supporters. For an exit from the EU voted 51.9% of voters, supporters of EU membership were in the minority, gaining 48.1% of the vote.
The next step is the initiation of the UK exit from the EU. Make it should British Prime Minister, but David Cameron has announced his resignation after the official announcement of the referendum results.
Going back down is unlikely. Block out of the EU could have the House of Commons, but it is possible in the case of low turnout at the sites. In the case of a referendum, the turnout was 72% -. The highest figure for the United Kingdom for more than two decades,
The unexpected outcome
The referendum results were a shock to many. The fact that the voting was almost at parity, predicted many polls, but on the day before the referendum and during the voting telephone surveys showed the prevalence of supporters of EU membership, among which there were many individuals in politics, economy and culture
<.! - - place 8322095, / business / 2016/06/22 / 8322095.shtml, nm2015 / v2 / article / incut, incut1_link ->
After the polls close at 22:00 London time, the poll showed a majority of isolation, though small , EU supporters:. 52% – EU membership, 48% – for withdrawal from the Union, informed service YouGov poll
Some ardent fans Brexit even recognize his defeat, not waiting for the official results of the referendum: for example, Nigel Faraj, leader of the Party of the United Kingdom independence Party (UKIP), one of the main eurosceptic countries, tweeted that he felt, winning supporters of EU membership.
what were dissatisfied supporters Brexit?
The main claim to membership in the European Union amounted to the fact that the UK has become less sovereignty in making some decisions. Influence of the European Commission, the executive body of the EU, British voters, parliament or representatives of other authorities could only indirectly.
The main argument Brexit supporters was the fact that Brussels is actually controlled the economic social policy and the UK, even if that was his decision not to agree.
As a member of the EU, Great Britain was forced to submit to the trade and economic restrictions, approved in Brussels. European legislation has been a priority over the British, in particular, the powers of the European Commission in the field of competition and antitrust law hung over national institutions.
British Minister of Justice, Michael Gove has estimated that due to this the British economy every week lost about 600 million pounds sterling.
a traditional item on the list of claims the EU is significant and the UK need to make annual contributions to the EU budget, which is estimated at 13 billion pounds ($ 19 billion).
Proponents of exit from the EU assured – the money should be distributed in accordance with the opinion of local authorities, not at the behest of Brussels parliamentarians, who are not accountable to the British electorate
the discontent eurosceptics. It intensified after last year’s surge in migration flows, which went through the territory of the continental European Union and settled in the most prosperous countries – Germany, France, Belgium and the UK. Former Mayor of London Boris Johnson, one of the most ardent supporters of Brexit, warned that Britain’s membership of the EU questioned the country’s ability to somehow control migration. Nigel Farage and did accuse Brussels’ bringing terrorists “, noting that because of the EU membership in the UK security significantly reduced.
Investors fear uncertainty
The volatility of world markets has increased more before the referendum. But a couple of days until 23 June, investors were encouraged by the data of opinion polls showing that a majority in favor of EU membership. On the day of the referendum the British national currency even reached the highest level since the beginning of this year, breaking the mark of $ 1,5.
But after the official announcement of the results, investors rushed to sell assets that can suffer as a result of the withdrawal. The British pound fell by 11% on Friday to $ 1.32, having fallen to a thirty-year lows.
Later, a British national currency played a few fall, rising to $ 1.38. But still it remains at seven-year lows.
Analysts predict a further decline in the British currency quotes. “The pound will fall in price to the major currencies by 10-15%. In the medium term, Britain will lose a few percentage points of GDP growth, etc. For Britain obvious economic benefits not defeated populism “- concludes the director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research Sberbank Yulia Tseplyaeva
Brexit stock market crash in Europe to a minimum in 2008
Summarized the index of the largest enterprises of the region Stoxx Europe 600 fell by 7%, the British FTSE 100 stock index – by 3.2%, while the DAX German – by 6.8%. In addition, the Swiss fell Swiss Market Index – 3.4% and the French CAC 40 – by 8%. The volume of trading on European exchanges rose nearly four-fold compared with an average of 30 days.
Oil and gold
dropped and oil futures. The price of a barrel of North Sea Brent crude oil, which is tied to the price of Urals of Russia, to 20.45 MSK on intercontinental stock exchange ICE in London was $ 48.73 (-4.27%). According to analysts, the referendum results are a speculative factor, and may have only a short-term impact on the oil market.
«If from the very beginning of the fall has reached about 7% and the price per barrel fell to $ 47.5, then now we see a correction up – indicates Andrey Polishchuk from Raiffeisenbank. – So the fear of a serious collapse in oil prices is not worth »
. <-! Place 8324603, / politics / 2016/06 / 24_a_8324603.shtml, nm2015 / v2 / article / incut, incut2_link ->
But if you look wider, the UK out of the EU will push investors to seek “safe haven” for their assets. These are traditionally considered to be the US dollar. It strikes at the prices in commodity markets, which are mainly denominated in US dollars. “The stronger US currency, the cheaper oil, since oil contracts are denominated in dollars, which, however, applies to other commodities», – said analyst “Aton” Alexander Kornilov
Gold, which is also considered a defensive asset investors also reacted to the results of the referendum on the posts. On the news of Vrexit it went up, rising by more than 8%, to $ 1,358.54 an ounce. This is the highest price since March 2014.
But later the price corrected to $ 1318.75. “Given the potential volatility of the markets caused by the possible secession from the United Kingdom, Scotland and Northern Ireland, gold will at least maintain a high price, and it is possible – will go further” – suggests a senior analyst of “Aton” Andrew Lobazov
Gold increased over the past two weeks, drew attention of Andrew Tretelnikov TCS Partners. “It is possible to rise to $ 1,350, but we regard it as a speculative play, followed by a correction down – says analyst. – Fundamentally sentiment towards gold is unlikely to change, especially given that the Central Bank of the United Kingdom has promised, if necessary, to support the liquidity of the banking sector. Thus, serious risks to the financial system is not ».
The ticket price to yield
For an exit from the European Union will have to pay. In April this year, the British Ministry of Finance published a report on what the consequences should be expected in the event of the UK from the EU.
The experts felt that in the event of EU GDP drop Britain may be from 3.4 to 9.5% of the current size by 2030. In per capita terms, this would amount to between £ 1 thousand. Up to £ 2.7 thousand. The fall in tax revenues will be in the whole of the £ 20 billion to £ 45 billion a year, experts say.
UK out of the EU have a negative impact on the entire European economy, as the EU, this means the loss of part of the tax, and changes in the regulation of financial markets. “That London was the financial heart of the European Union and the UK Financial Sector recent decades, played a determining role in the European economy”, – says the chief economist of FG BCS Vladimir Tikhomirov
For many Russian companies United Kingdom is the largest financial center. kind of infrastructure provider for financial transactions.
«The UK is part of the international financial community. If Britain will, may occur faults which cause detrimental effects, at least short-term “, – said Russian billionaire Alexei Mordashov, owner of steel” Severstal “and the gold Nordgold, in a Bloomberg interview last week
.
The most important thing is waiting for the markets after Brexit, – this is the instability and anxiety, “which tend to be harmful to the business climate.” Trade relations continue, but legal issues take time to resolve them. “It takes time to shuffle all trade agreements, laws, financial regulations, to accept the new reality of the UK”, – warned Mordashov
It is unclear about the consequences Brexit say in Russian banks.. “The consequences are still unclear. . Since the agreement are not clear with the “Divorce»
Much depends on the ability to save preferences in trade and, more importantly, for the financial market “, – said Tseplyaeva of Sberbank. According to her, these exit conditions are likely to clear only at the end of 2016.
Is Russia will suffer?
The decision of the British to leave the EU will have an impact on Russia. Exit the UK from the EU bears no direct risks for Russia, confident in the Central Bank. The main risk – the instability of the markets, for which the Central Bank is the “necessary tools”, said the regulator
The ministry added that Brexit dangerous it is volatility, which will be on the “order of magnitude less than that through. which we have passed, so the domestic economic dynamics of the impact of this event will be limited. ” “For Russia, this [Brexit] means a drop of oil, the weakening of the ruble, the increased volatility of the financial markets”, – said Finance Minister Anton Siluanov
EU -. Russia’s largest partner in trade, investment and economic relations, and problems EU indirectly affect on Russia, concludes Tikhomirov from the BCS.
among the most vulnerable companies that may be affected by the output of Great Britain from the EU listed the Russian state company “Gazprom”, Bloomberg reported with reference to the analytical report of the investment bank JP Morgan, as well as the analysts of financial companies. Analysts at investment bank pointed out that up to 70% of revenues of the Russian state-owned companies account for the European market, which means that forecasts of revenue are based on data that were relevant to the referendum.
Brexit can . impact on the Russian companies’ plans to continue to conduct transactions through the financial centers of the United Kingdom
«With the release of the UK from the EU may begin to fade London as a financial center – said the CEO of gold Nordgold Nikolai Zelensky. – Brexit can become an occasion to explore alternative sites for placement. For example, the Toronto Stock Exchange is one of the centers for the mining industry. We maintain plans to complete the change of jurisdiction with the Dutch to the British, but to talk about the prospects for placement on a particular site is that sooner. Brexit – strange and unprecedented event, it is necessary to study the legal nuances »
Because of the dollar has strengthened the ruble at the opening of trading on the Moscow stock exchange has fallen immediately by 2.1 rubles, up.. 65.95 rubles. $ 1 (as of 10:00 MSK Friday). The euro strengthened by 0.03 rubles to 72.715 rubles
There is another risk -.. In a period of heightened volatility investors withdraw assets from emerging markets, which means risk of increasing the outflow of capital from Russia , warns the chief economist of the Eurasian development Bank Yaroslav Lissovolik. Russian companies risk also face an increase in the cost of borrowing on foreign markets
But in the long term, there are some benefits:. According to the analyst, “the financial flows may become more differentiated, as investors begin to pay more attention to it developing . markets »
a dangerous precedent
the main global risk, which arises after the decision of the UK to leave the European Union, due to the fact that on her way can go to other countries – EU members. “The European Union – a third of the world economy with a very complex structure, and all the risks are reflected in the attitude of investors to the European currency – explains Tseplyaeva of Sberbank. – So if we now can be considered mild negative, then, if the example of Britain, followed by other countries, the situation could radically change »
The first wave of such statements has gone.. The Prime Minister of Scotland, where the majority of voters voted in a referendum for EU membership, has already announced that Scotland sees its future in the European Union and is planning to hold its own referendum – to remain in Europe. Called for an independent referendum on the issue and zampremera Northern Ireland, which is also inclined towards EU membership, and not out of it
In the meantime, the United Kingdom is preparing for presidency in the European Union:. EU exit process will take about two years and preside need since July 1, 2017.
No comments:
Post a Comment