Siluanov told about the prospects of the ruble over the next three years – RBC

The Minister of Finance Anton Siluanov

Photo: Vladimir Marchenko for RBC

The ruble will remain stable under the condition in the next three years, the average annual price of oil is at $ 40 a barrel, said Anton Siluanov. According to him, to the end of 2016, Russia’s economy will start growing

According to Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, the ruble exchange rate in the next three years should not be seriously changed, provided that the average annual price of oil will remain at about the projected level at $ 40 per barrel. “The price of oil, we are planning on the basis of the order of $ 40 per barrel in the next three years … On this basis, we believe the ruble. That is the balance that has developed, it will not be a serious change in the conditions of the orientations in oil prices, which we expect, “- he said in an interview in the program” Vesti on Saturday with Sergei Brilev “(quoted by Tass)

<. p> in addition, the Minister said that the Russian economy as a whole to adapt to the new conditions and the end of the year we can expect the beginning of its growth.

«Our economy is generally adapted to the new conditions. Structural changes happened … By the end of the year, we estimate that the economy will come to a positive growth “, – he said

Siluanov explained that a few years ago in the Russian economy dominated by export-oriented commodity sector.. “Who is the other way around: the industry that produce value-added products, with a high level of added value, and these sectors have become prevalent. And profit for the last year, the profit of the enterprises increased by more than 20% – this was not in the last few years “, – he said

The Minister of Finance also said that to keep the budget deficit at 3% of GDP will be. “daunting task”. He expects revenues to the federal budget from the excise tax on alcoholic beverages will increase by 10% in 2016. “In terms of revenue, we are now actively engaged with Rosalkogolregulirovaniem improve the collection of excise duties on alcohol. We expect that revenues will increase by at least 10% “, – said Siluanov

In addition, he said that the government needs to more than 100 billion rubles of additional revenue for the full implementation of the measures under the plan to support the economy in. 2016. “On the primary part of the funds has … In the second part, we expect to receive additional income” – said Siluanov

Earlier, on 11 May, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has released an updated version of the forecast by. that low oil prices and lack of investment will lead to the continuation of recession in the Russian economy in 2016. The experts concluded that in 2016 Russia’s GDP will shrink by 1.2% (in 2015 GDP fell immediately by 3.7%). The growth of the Russian economy the Bank experts is expected in 2017. According to preliminary estimates, in the next year, Russia’s GDP will grow by 1%.

With his project the resumption of economic growth in Russia and acted as mayor. As “Kommersant” wrote that the plan of the Ministry intended to limit the growth of wages in the economy in 2016-2017, a reduction of real pensions by 4.8% in 2016 and by 2% in 2017 with further indexing only on inflation until 2019 . All this, according to the authors plan will allow in 2019 to reach the level of 4.5% GDP growth. “This, according to calculations the Ministry of Economy, will increase the number of poor from 13.1% in 2015 to 13.7% at the end of 2017, with a peak in 2018 at 13.9% – and the return of the real incomes of the poor and to that of 2015 year in 2019 “, – the newspaper wrote.