The IEG found it “almost impossible” to return to annual growth of 5-7% – RBC

Photo: Vladislav Shatilo / RBC

In materials for the meeting of the Economic Council under the President of the Ministry of economy questioned the possibility of the return of economic growth to 5-7% per year. That will not happen, even with the growth of crude oil above $ 50, it is believed the Office

The return of the Russian economy to the previous growth rate of 5-7% per year “is almost impossible.” These findings are contained in the Economic Development Ministry materials prepared for the meeting of the Economic Council under the President, which is scheduled for May 25th. To familiarize with these materials could Tass.

«Our calculations show that even in the face of high oil prices, ie, above $ 50 per barrel, a return to the old growth path, 5-7% per year, is almost impossible “, – stated in the document

The department explained that this situation is due to deep structural changes in the global economy. passing into a state of “new normality».

The potential growth of the Russian economy at the level of 2% per year, but it can be increased up to 4%. To this end, the ministry explained, must be “effective use of human resources and encouraging investment.” The growth rate of 2% Office finds unacceptable, since they lead to a decrease in the share of Russia “in the global economy, the loss of competitiveness, living standards fall relative to most countries»

. The materials of the Ministry also notes that downturn in the Russian economy is largely completed, while at the same time it continues to stagnate. “The economic cycle is close to the lowest point. In some moments, we are already seeing signs of recovery, which will continue in the medium term “, – believe in the agency

The basis of the new economic model should be the investment policy, according to the materials.. The optimal ratio between the current consumption and investment in the department consider the range of 22-25% of GDP. “In order to reach this ratio in the coming years, investments should grow by 7-8% per year, while maintaining the trend of stagnation of this consumption”, -. Said the ministry

To achieve the investment growth you can use policy which is based on three pillars:. the creation and maintenance of investment resources, creating conditions for the transformation of savings into investments and stimulating investment activity through public support mechanisms

As previously wrote “Vedomosti”, the first 2013 meeting of the presidium of economic Council under the Russian President will discuss the recipe average annual growth rate of 4% of GDP. The meeting is expected to address the head of Ministry of Economic Development Alexei Ulyukayev, as well as reports of Stolypin club and the Center for Strategic Research, which is chaired by Alexei Kudrin. As expected, Vladimir Putin, Kudrin will offer his vision of economic development.