The Russian economy will not remain aloof from the Greek events. The head of the Ministry of Economics Alexei Ulyukayev did not hide that the weakening of the ruble – a likely scenario on the basis of the crisis in Greece. Russia is ready to fall in demand for oil assets.
As the Minister of Economy of Russia Alexei Ulyukayev said on the sidelines of a meeting of economic ministers of the BRICS should not preclude the weakening of the ruble against the backdrop of the Greek events. “Every movement of our main export product, of course, affect the exchange rate. Therefore, other things being equal decline in oil prices means the pressure to the weakening of the ruble, “- Tass quoted Mr. Ulyukayev. Among the possible consequences it is also called a small outflow of capital from emerging markets.
Previously, experts have expressed concerns about the negative impact of the events in Greece on the Russian economy. According to the head of VTB 24 Mikhail Zadornov, the Greek crisis devalue the currency in Central Europe, the Balkan countries and at the same time the ruble. In addition, developments in Greece, he said, would be a signal to lower demand for oil assets, which, in turn, weaken the ruble.
According to Alexei Ulyukayev, the current exchange rate reflects fundamental factors. According to the Minister of Economy, 55 rubles. “Plus-minus” 2-3 rub.- a natural value associated with the balance of payments. There is even reason to believe that this year the performance of the current and capital account reserve will create stability for the dynamics of the ruble. In addition, the slowdown in consumer price growth provides an opportunity to reduce the key rate of the Central Bank. “This comes from the fact the inflation outlook, which we and our colleagues in the share of the Central Bank, – said Mr. Ulyukaev.- We believe that before the end of the year its figures are 11% and by the end of the first quarter of 2016 – about 7%.” June 15 recall, the Central Bank lowered its key rate by 1 percentage point – to 11.5% per annum.
So far, inflation at the end of July, as calculated by the Ministry of Economy, slightly higher than inflation June due to the indexation of July 1, public utilities tariffs. Annual inflation of this month is 15.5% against 15.3% in June.
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third force oil
From the beginning, Russia was assured first place in the world for oil – and it contrary to the forecasts of the government and companies. In January-May Russian oil produced 220.356 million tons (10.697 million barrels per day), which is 1.2% more than in 2014. Analysis of data on oil production shows that the main credit for this belongs to the leadership of small and medium-sized independent oil companies. Read more
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