Iranian factor: how nuclear deal will affect the price of oil – Mail.Ru

On the morning of July 14, it became known that the six mediating countries – Russia, the US, China, France, Britain, Germany – agreed with Iran on a gradual withdrawal from the Middle Eastern country of international sanctions UN and unilateral sanctions the European Union and the United States in exchange for a verified reduction of Iran’s nuclear program.

This means that in the near future Iranian oil will return to the world market. News of the impending lifting of the embargo as soon as oil prices dropped nearly 2% in the first hours after the announcement. But if the price collapses the full return of Iran to the world market, it is still unknown.

The restrictions on the export of crude oil from Iran can not be removed at once. The agreement contains no specific date, but determined that the sanctions will be lifted, “together with the IAEA confirmed Iran’s fulfillment of all the agreed measures relating to the nuclear program.” Iran will take up these measures (reduction of the number of centrifuges, conversion processing Ford Center and so on. D. ) closer to the end of October, follows from the annexes to the agreement. Of course the execution will take at least another few months, so the sanctions are likely to be canceled until early 2016. And if Tehran violates the any obligations, sanctions can be restored.

Now the export of oil from Iran strongly complicated. In 2012, the EU banned their countries purchase of Iranian oil. US does not buy it from the end of 1980, and three years ago and has introduced secondary sanctions against third countries who dare to buy Iranian oil.

Until mid-2012, Iran to supply oil to 21 countries, a day abroad It took up to 2.5 million barrels of oil. (Data for 2011).

In 2013, the Western sanctions against Iran’s oil exports were weakened. China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Taiwan had the opportunity to buy Iranian oil, in certain quantities. According to the US Department of Energy, in 2014 the average daily volume of Iranian oil supplies to the world market was 1.4 million barrels.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Iran is in fourth place in the world terms of proven oil reserves. They reach nearly 160 billion barrels.

The price of oil has dropped in April, when Iran and mediator countries announced an appointment. Then the news of the possible removal of the embargo landslides prices by 4% on the day.

Iran unknown

Predicting the long-term effects of the withdrawal of the Iranian oil embargo is difficult. At best, the free export of Iranian oil to start in early 2016. Refinement of details led Tuesday to the fact that oil prices have turned around: As of 19:30 MSK August futures price of Brent rose by 0.8%, to $ 58,35.

«After the lifting of the embargo Iran be able to supply to the world market in addition to the 500 th. barrels. a day “- said a senior analyst at RBC Bank” Uralsib “Alexei Kokin. According to him, during the six months average export can be increased by 500 th. Barrels. The main buyers of Iranian oil will remain the country’s Southeast Asia. But “the Iranians are hoping that the EU will resume their purchases,” says an analyst.

The fact that Iran will be able immediately after the lifting of the embargo on supplying the world market in addition to half a million barrels a day, and Western experts believe . The Financial Times (FT) has led assessment consultancy Manaar Energy Consulting, which suggested that for six months of the year, since the abolition of export restrictions, Iran will be able to increase deliveries to 500-800 thousand. Barrels. per day. Finally, the readiness to deliver 500 th. Barrels. and said Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangene.

Now the Middle Eastern country has significant reserves of crude oil in tankers and storage facilities, the exact amount is unknown. For the first time, they will become the basis for future exports. According to the profile expert Bijan Hazhehpura referenced by The Wall Street Journal, the accumulated reserves of 20 million barrels of oil. According to the FT, they can reach 40 million barrels.

The impact on oil prices will depend on the pace of the country’s output to the world market, says Kokin. The analyst said that traders have already played the news of the return of Iranian oil. “The question is how much oil Iran can actually deliver,” – emphasizes Kokin.

According to partner consulting company RusEnergy Krutikhin Michael, on the market in addition 500 thousand. – 1 million barrels of oil. per day of Iranian oil may reduce the price to $ 45 per barrel. “At times of panic traders prices may fall even more,” – said Krutikhin. He agrees with Kokin in assessing the most likely buyers of this oil. “The Iranians are counting on Europe and especially the Mediterranean countries”, – he said.

Export Problem

In 2016, Iran will seek to increase its oil and gas export, as it is the main source of foreign currency funds. In so doing, it may interfere with the internal and external circumstances.

Because sanctions, Iran was forced to suspend the development of new deposits and preserve the old. Their activation may take some time. According to various estimates, it ranges from six months to a year. However, even in case of a successful resumption of oil production level often can not be compared with the original.

The country is going to solve this problem with the help of foreign investment. According to the FT, Iran is now discussing with international companies contracts worth a total of $ 100 billion.

Another negative factor that can prevent Iran’s triumphant return to the world oil market may be the current market situation. The world is witnessing a serious oversupply. According to the International Energy Agency, in the next year the global demand for oil will grow by only 1.2 mln barrels. a day – compared with 1.4 million barrels. this year. The imbalance in the market accurately and to continue in 2016, the IEA said in the July forecast.

The decline in global demand for oil is going on of the slow pace of world economic growth. In addition, in late June – early July, the main driver of the global economy – China – survived the crash of the stock market, which threatens a significant slowdown in China’s economy.

In these circumstances, according to Hazhehpura, the Iranians will have to “try to find a buyer for its oil. ” The head of the state oil company of Iran Iranian Oil Co. Mohsen Kamsari said that oversupply will not affect the plans of his country. The priority for future deliveries, he called the countries of Europe.