The Ministry of Economy on behalf of President Vladimir Putin considered the “target scenario” in which Russia’s economy should grow faster than 4% in 2018, while investments – 9-10% per year. Only part of the conditions for this sub-department Alexei Ulyukayev, the forecast – growth investment limits NWF money to 80% of the fund, limiting the growth of state monopolies expected inflation rates, increasing the retirement age. Consider seriously this target scenario the White House has not yet solved.
Develop a medium-term scenario, allowing Russia to go “on the path of sustainable economic growth with the rate not lower than the world average, lower inflation rate to 4% increase in productivity of at least 5 % while ensuring macroeconomic balance “, Vladimir Putin instructed the government and the Central Bank until 25 April 2015, although the need to implement such a scenario, he said, more December 4, 2014 in the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation. This job is done – the document, seen “b”, presented to the President.
The need for a formal order is obviously overdue after 1 April cabinet members were Vladimir Putin, the basic medium-term macroeconomic forecast until 2018 (see. “Kommersant” on 2 and 21 April ). As a result of this meeting, Economy Minister Alexei Ulyukayev said that the focus at the meeting was not on the baseline forecast, and an assessment of how to enter the growth rate higher than the average. “And on a special version of 2017, we go out on the growth rate of a little more than 4%,” – hastened to inform the minister promised to finalize the report to the President and, separately, a variant of the forecast, “as soon as they found additional sources of financing.” April 9, “Interfax” referring to sources in the Ministry of Economy and the Central Bank said: achieving the target forecast parameters is possible only in 2018 and the next three years “will require the implementation of a number of fundamental decisions in the field of economic and structural and technological policy.” With this agreed, and the Central Bank. As a result of investigations appeared a document called “The target scenario of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation and measures for its implementation.” “The basic concept of the target scenario – stimulating investment demand, including by reducing the current consumption”, – stated in the text.
To run a positive scenario in which the average annual growth rate of investment in the years 2016-2020 will amount to 8.4%, Economy Ministry proposes to increase the limit now investing from the National Welfare Fund with 60% up to 80%, and to determine the mechanism of high-quality investment funded part of the pension money of private pension funds and life insurance. To avoid increasing the deficit of the Pension Fund, in particular, to raise the retirement age, to limit the size of payments to working pensioners with high earnings and raise the requirements for length of service social workers.
The obvious innovations, in addition to the regular administrative reform, which is designed to free up 240 billion rubles. annually and contribute to the improvement of the business environment, the document does not contain. However, the Ministry of Economy insists on restarting the ideas of struggle with the cost of state monopolies (proposed to limit the growth rate of tariffs for the infrastructure sector and households expected inflation next year – 4% in 2018; it is 1.5-2 times lower than in the baseline forecast) competition and antitrust, public-private partnerships, concessions. However, it is proposed “radical” (5% annually in 2015-2017, reform of social and cultural sectors, without affecting the defense industry and security) to reduce costs and optimize the budget of the state program.
Although the “target scenario” has no official status in the package of documents the government forecast, April 25 at the annual Collegium of the Ministry of Economics Alexei Ulyukayev said he intends to submit to the government proposals to increase the FNB and investlimita investing pension money (see. “Kommersant” on April 25). At the same time the White House after a discussion of medium-term baseline scenario, the Economy Ministry recommended to reduce the target price of oil from $ 70 to $ 65 per barrel for 2017 and from $ 80 to $ 70 – for the 2018 th, which corresponds to 1.5% GDP growth in the medium term.
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