Russian Economy News: Vneshekonombank: the crisis of the Russian economy is still far from complete

Thursday, May 28, 2015

Vneshekonombank: the crisis of the Russian economy is still far from complete – RosRegistr

The decline of the Russian economy continues, the lowest point of the crisis has not yet been overcome, say the authors of the operational monthly GDP estimates Russian Vnesheconombank. According to the Bank, the dynamics of GDP compared to the previous month, with the exception of seasonal and calendar factors negative for the fourth month in a row in April 2015 index fell by 0.6% after falling 0.4% in March, 0.6% in February and by 1.6% in January.

Thus, Russia’s GDP shrinking throughout the first four months of 2015. At the same time in April, its fall has accelerated significantly – in March, the rate did not exceed 3.3%. Compared to March 2015 the volume of GDP fell in April by 0.6%, which is one and a half times the rate of decline in the previous month. In January-April 2015 Russia’s GDP, according to the calculations of the bank, decreased by 2,5%.

Acceleration of GDP decline in the VEB explain the deterioration in industry, transport and financial sectors, as well as the negative dynamics of export duties which supported the GDP in the first months of the year.

«Strengthening of GDP decline in the second month of spring, primarily due to a drop in industrial production of the dynamics of industries, transport and the financial sector».

«Saving the relatively low level of unemployment reached a significant reduction in real wages “, – said the chief economist at VEB Andrei Klepach.

According to the latest data research business organizations in the Russian Federation in the last month of spring 2015, which were published in the Federal State Statistics Service environment, improvement of the economic situation in the next 6 months 19% of respondents expect in the segment of mining operations, and 25% in manufacturing. Apparently, this was one of the factors reducing the release of Machine-Building Industry.

According to Klepach, the outflow of capital from the private sector also accelerated and amounted to approximately $ 12 billion by mid-spring of this year to 8 billion by the beginning of spring . The consensus Interfax during this year Russia’s GDP will fall by 4.2% in 2016 is expected a symbolic increase of 0,3%. In general, the Federal State Statistics Service records growth of the index of business confidence in the late spring of 2015 year compared to December of last year, but it is still in the negative zone.