The economists do not believe that Russia or large companies have to declare a default in 2015. Photo: TASS 
Economists Saxo Bank on December 10 issued a forecast that Russian companies defaulted on foreign loans in a sharp weakening of the ruble – the critical need of our measure the country in 2015. Banki.ru portal asked the experts how likely new defaults in Russia and if it helps the Russian economy.
According to forecasts of Saxo Bank chief economist Steve Jacobson, as a result of falling prices oil and non-financial support from the Russian geopolitical rivals the big companies or the Russian government may declare a default on external loans. “Event of Default, like the one that occurred in 1998, will give the country an opportunity to secure the future, as well as a diplomatic solution on the Ukrainian question,” – said in a forecast of Saxo Bank.
Russia practically entered into recession. The ruble continues to slump against the dollar and the euro. According to estimates of Saxo Bank, between the end of 2014 to the end of 2015, Russian companies have to pay 134 billion US dollars in foreign debt. “Russia’s currency reserves amount to 400 billion US dollars, however, despite the fact that these reserves can help Russia win some time,” Rottenberg law “(the law on compensation from the budget got under international sanctions for Russian citizens arrest or confiscation of their foreign assets. – approx. Ed.), intervention to maintain the ruble exchange rate, the current account deficit coming, a large budget deficit and an almost complete restriction of access to external capital markets mean that the 400 billion US dollars can turn into an amount sufficient only to cover incidentals. Therefore, an attempt to start a new leaf is probably exactly what the country needs for its future dev elopment “, – explains the logic of the forecast Steve Jacobson.
In the post-Soviet Russia already had one default, when the August 17, 1998 Russia announced that it is temporarily unable to pay the state treasury bonds. Massive corporate defaults or defaults of large companies in Russia have not yet been.
Banki.ru portal economists asked how likely corporate defaults in 2015 and what will be the consequences for the country.
«This is a very dangerous calls that trigger the rating agencies lower the ratings of Russia»
Julia Tseplyaeva, director of the Center for Macroeconomic Research Sberbank:
– I do not agree with this statement. The situation is not so hard to avoid paying their debts. We do not have large external debt of small companies and sovereign debt in order to solve the problem this way. All defaults turn extremely painful consequences in the medium and long term. Therefore, the default – it is not a good idea. This is a very dangerous calls that trigger the rating agencies lower the ratings of Russia, which could lead to a new sale of Russian assets.
«The probability of default is minimal now»
Catherine Vlasova, economist at Citi in Russia and the CIS:
– In the event of default on external corporate debt Russian companies completely lose access to international capital markets, which had a negative impact on their investment activity. However, we believe such a scenario is highly unlikely for two reasons. First, about 70% of the external debt of the company – it is the duty of exporters who receive revenues in dollars and thus hedged against currency risks. The second factor, which reduces the risk of default – there is a substantial airbags in the form of the National Welfare Fund. Even if Russian companies face significant financial difficulties, NWF, according to our estimates, enough to cover all payments on corporate debt before the end of 2015.
«reserves may last for debt payments until 2018, even with closed foreign markets»
Evgeny Nadorshin, chief economist at AFK “Sistema” :
– The probability of default on corporate foreign debt is relevant only for individual companies, but not for the entire corporate sector. Defaults of some companies – it is a normal thing in a recession. However, consider the global default as the only way out of the situation, I would not. In my view, 2015 will be soft enough in terms of external debt. As for 2016, there is need to look payment schedules and sources of external resources. Until something concrete to talk early. In addition, the Central Bank ample supply of reserves, which are based on revenue currency current account and reserves, already formed the corporate sector, may be sufficient for debt payments until 2018, even with closed foreign markets.
«In the case of the pursuit of economic isolation of the decision to defaults seems logical»
Elena Hromova partner BDO “Unicon”:
– In recent years, increasingly voice an opinion about the benefits of frozen foreign currency payments to foreign creditors. In the short term, of course, such measures can significantly reduce the pressure on the ruble. However, these actions will eventually lead to an almost complete cessation of access of Russian companies to foreign, not only to Western financial markets at the expense of the country, and behind him and corporate ratings and critical increase in the cost of borrowing. Therefore, these steps are only effective in a dramatic situation where without them will have nothing to lose. In the case of the pursuit of economic isolation of the decision on defaults also seems logical.
«For individual corporate borrowers situation is certainly not very rosy»
Michael Khromov, Director of the Center for Structural Studies IEP name Gaidar:
– For individual corporate borrowers situation is certainly not very encouraging. The presently observed fall of the ruble is largely due to the demand for currency on the part of those borrowers who are coming in the near future payments on external debt. In this regard, it is likely that, as in 2008-2009, the government will offer individual borrowers to refinance foreign currency debt, or act as a guarantor for certain of the corporations, primarily state. In this situation, obviously, the risk to the solvency of the state itself. In 2008-2009, of the $ 50 billion allocated for the repayment of external corporate debt, were in demand only 11 billion. In modern conditions the demand for foreign currency may be much larger due to higher levels of both the external debt and upcoming payments in the coming months and quarters.
The most serious consequence of defaults can be considered a downgrade of the issuer and not ( or too high a price) further borrowing. For Russia, taking into account external sanctions now question the cost of foreign borrowing is not relevant, because of the extremely low volume of loans themselves. However, sooner or later, sanctions will be lifted, and to fix the damaged credit history can take much longer. After the 1998 crisis, it took 4-5 years to return the credit rating of the Russian Federation to the pre-crisis level.
«Point defaults will occur, they can not be excluded even in quiet time»
Maxim Petronevich, Deputy Director of the Center for Economic Forecasting Gazprombank:
– Point defaults, of course, will take place, they can not be excluded, even during quiet times. Expectations of large-scale bankruptcies in the event of fluctuations in oil prices close to the current level I have not. Weakening of the ruble support profitability of the export sector and stimulate import substitution. Decline in domestic demand will be very limited. The Bank of Russia provides local and foreign currency liquidity in significant quantities, with the terms of FX liquidity only improved.
«Such a move would be detrimental to the reputation of the country»
Elena Lysenkova, a senior analyst at the bank “Globex»:
– We believe such a scenario is unlikely. Given that both the company and the government have the means to repay short-term debt, such a move would be disastrous for the country’s reputation. He is in the long term would isolate the Russian business of foreign capital, not only Western but also Asian. Russia also continues to position itself as a country that is open to investment cooperation with other countries.
«In good, of course, need to restore relations with the West»
Ilya Balakirev, principal analyst at UFS IC:
– potential problems with debt servicing could be a number of municipal borrowers, as well as possibly some corporations, including state-owned. The weakening of the national currency further aggravates the service foreign currency debt.
Most likely, while talking about something else. Increasing political pressure from outside may encourage the country’s leaders to react asymmetrically – in particular, refuse to service external liabilities. At least partially. For example, with respect to debt holders located in countries that support anti-Russian sanctions. In fact, it will not default as such, but the consequences of such a decision may be even more severe than a typical default.
In general, out of the current crisis, several. In good, of course, need to negotiate and to restore relations with the West, because it is in this vein that the economy developed all the time. Restructuring of a qualitatively new footing will be too painful. While the management of corporations took a wait-acting of the preconditions of the temporary nature of the sanctions and the time as oil prices fall. A potential way out of the situation suggested by the President – liberalization of the economy, increasing investment attractiveness of the fight against corruption.
«We see no reason to default»
Maxim Pleshkou, senior analyst at rating agency “Rus-Rating»:
– Defaults announce not because they “must” or “do not” declare them, but because they do not have enough money to meet its obligations. We see no reason for the Russian government default: public external debt of $ 53.7 billion is about 3% of GDP. In view of the domestic government debt, our total national debt – about 11% of GDP. It is worth noting that domestic debt issued under Russian law and denominated in the national currency that can not be interpreted in terms of risk. The budget is executed with a surplus, and we see no problems with fiscal policy in the country. The current economic slowdown is structural in nature and, despite the high risks associated with the dynamics of oil prices in 2015 and the ability of the Central Bank to limit inflationary pressures, we see certain prerequisites to strengthen the effect of import substitution. That is the objective basis for forecasts gosdefolta does not exist.
With regard to the phrase “corporate defaults” – such term or assumptions characterizing the default of the sector, also exists. Default may be specific to corporations, companies. The total external debt of public companies by the end of 2013 was equal to 729 billion US dollars. Closing Western markets for Russian companies has accelerated the decline in this indicator due to the inability to refinance the debt on the foreign market. According to the Bank of Russia, from the beginning of 2014 the debt was reduced by $ 50 billion. Payments of Russian companies on foreign debt in 2015, estimated at about $ 100 billion, to be carried out without serious problems.
Recorded Julia Titova, Banki.ru
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