After the next “black” Monday, when the Russian currency lost against the dollar and the euro immediately more than six rubles, independent of the Government and the President Board of Directors of Bank of Russia late in the evening decided to raise its key interest rate from 10.5 to 17%. With the help of emergency measures regulator hoped to slow down the rapid weakening of the ruble, but the venture failed. The official exchange rate of the Russian currency on Tuesday sank further, dropping to 61.15 rubles per dollar (2.8 rubles to the previous day) and 76.15 rubles per euro (3.5). According to the respondents “NO” experts, although the action of the Central Bank the right, but belated and insufficient to prevent the collapse of the currency market. A full-blown banking crisis is not far off – the population and businesses have already realized that no one ruble is not going to support, and a further fall in oil prices, savings and reven ues can only be saved in dollars and euros.
The Fall of the Russian currency takes place so rapidly that market analysts do not even have time to comment on it, and stock news came in sparing telegraphic format as military reports.
Recall that on the night of Monday to Tuesday, the Bank of Russia tried to intervene in the negative developments on the stock exchange, sharply raising its key interest rate from 10 5% to 17% immediately, but expect the turn of sentiment on the stock exchange did not happen, on the contrary, caused panic and bewilderment players analysts. “The decision of the Central Bank was made after the close of the currency exchange, so as not to scare the Russians fall of the ruble. Why could not immediately raise rates on December 11 and if so it is clear that inflation is unwound? And it is unclear how the regulator is going to curb food inflation, which in 2015 will be double digit, “- they asked in their morning reports.
Note that the opening of trading on Tuesday, the dollar fell by almost six rubles – to 58.5 rubles, euro – more than 5 rubles – up to 73 rubles, but already by 12 noon ruble began to fall again. At 15.15 Moscow the dollar gave already more than 80 rubles, the euro was worth more than $ 100. Later, however, there has been some backlash, but taken ruble intermediate “top” impressive.
According to experts, against the Russian currency is now played by external factors. The fact that the United States, since 2008, carried out the so-called “quantitative easing”, but simply printed in a huge amount of dollars – only 3 trillion. In 2014, the printing press is also included in the EU. As a result, the amount of dollars and euros in the global financial system has risen sharply, due to which major funds – the holders of trillions of dollars of worthless currency omit any developing economy where trading volumes are small.
In addition, global investors under the influence of US economic growth (GDP will grow by 2.5% in 2014) are now actively transfer their assets from emerging markets in the US, due to which the demand for the American currency there is growing rapidly, and national currencies weaken. Situation in Russia worsens high leverage real sector and banks denominated in foreign currency, the reduction of revenue from hydrocarbon exports, as well as the inability to get cheap loans abroad to pay off current debts. As a result of all these factors, the demand for currency on the Moscow stock exchange is much greater than the supply, which results in a rapid depreciation of the ruble. As told “NO” RANHiGS professor, former deputy chairman Alexander Khandruev, the decision of Bank of Russia bully bet is correct, but delayed . “Now we need to bring down the excessive demand for doll ars and euros, which is fueled by the rapid weakening of the ruble, so you need to make ruble deposits more expensive, the ruble was more expensive and market participants could not, in large volumes to change rubles for foreign currency”, – he explained. According to Mr. Handrueva for CB moment of truth, when to prevent the dollarization of the Russian economy need to take effective measures. “If you do not help the rate of 17%, it means that it is necessary to increase to 30% and 40%. In addition, enter the mandatory sale of foreign currency earnings. Otherwise, people and businesses will begin in droves to buy foreign currency, and this should not be allowed “, – said the expert.
At the same time, according to the Financial Ombudsman Pavel Medvedev, the Central Bank has no instruments other than the key rate , with which you can maintain the ruble. “I believe that the measure of the Central Bank – a desperate and courageous decision, which should improve the situation in the foreign exchange market. However, there will improve in fact, the big question, because the factors affecting the rate fixing and inflation very much and not all of them are run by the Bank of Russia, “- he said” NO ».
Our interlocutor also noted that the primary responsibility for the state of the Russian economy as a whole and in particular the exchange rate is not the Central Bank and the government, although public opinion is focused on the work of the Bank of Russia. “It is no fault of the Central Bank that the government has announced sanctions on food products from the EU and the US, and thus dispelled inflation. We stopped the import of cheap goods and steel chat about import substitution, which is impossible in the current situation – for the new production needs capital and technology, and neither one nor the other in Russia not because we fell out with the world. Lose the opportunity to buy cheap European products in this situation – it’s just crazy, and this must be immediately abandoned. Only if Russia becomes a little bit easier, “- said the financial ombudsman.
However, expert assessments can be any number, and the output of a currency crisis there is only one – is to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the foreign exchange market satisfying the needs of the Russian economy. Methods there may be any number. It all depends on the level of competence regulator, establishing the rules of the game, and its real independence in decision-making.
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